行业动态周报Weekly Industry Brief

重型商用车 · 挂车 · 矿用车 情报周报车轴 / 第五轮座 / 连接件 视角 · 亚洲 Heavy CV · Trailers · Mining Vehicles IntelligenceAxle / fifth-wheel / coupling lens · Asia

2026 · W33
2026-08-03 → 08-09
本周主线Bottom Line

本周变的是方向，不是水平：霍尔木兹临时航道谈判走到宣布前夜，Brent 全周结算价跌 7.3% 至 83.55 美元/桶，越南油价三连涨后首降、中国 8/14 窗口预估下调——但协议未签、海峡实际仍闭，油价仍比战前高约 16%，高柴油对购车结构的挤压只是不再加剧。同一周，「十五五」电力规划把大功率重卡充电网写进国家货运通道，7 月新能源重卡 2.86 万辆（+60% YoY）、新能源牵引车 2.18 万辆（+48% YoY，营运证口径）——电驱桥替代在政策与销量两头继续推进。需求面最强的是越南：前 7 个月公共投资放款完成计划 41.9%、货运量 +14.9% YoY。给董事会：柴油缓解是预期、电动化是现实，配套路线图继续向电驱桥与挂车智能件倾斜；首要监测项是 8/14 中国调价窗口，与印尼 8 月中下旬的议息、RKAB 批复、EV 刺激包三件事。

What changed this week is direction, not level: with the Hormuz interim-channel talks at the eve of an announcement, Brent settled the week 7.3% lower at $83.55/bbl; Vietnam cut pump prices after three straight hikes and China's Aug 14 window points down — but no deal is signed, the strait remains closed in practice, and crude still sits ~16% above pre-war levels, so high diesel keeps squeezing purchase decisions; it has merely stopped getting worse. In the same week, the 15th Five-Year power-system plan wrote high-power heavy-truck charging into national freight corridors, and July NEV heavy trucks reached 28.6k units (+60% YoY) with NEV tractors at 21.8k (+48% YoY, operating-certificate basis) — e-axle substitution keeps advancing on both the policy and sales fronts. Vietnam is the region's strongest demand story: seven-month public-investment disbursement hit 41.9% of plan and freight volume rose 14.9% YoY. For the board: diesel relief is an expectation while electrification is a fact — keep tilting the component roadmap toward e-axles and smart trailer content; the top items to watch are China's Aug 14 fuel-price window and Indonesia's mid/late-August trio (BI meeting, RKAB approvals, EV stimulus).

宏观Macro

霍尔木兹临时航道谈判密集推进：Brent 全周结算价 90.12 → 83.55 美元/桶（−7.3%），仍较战前 2 月约 72 美元高约 16%；越南 8/6 油价三连涨后首降，中国 8/14 窗口机构预估柴油下调约 375 元/吨。「十五五」电力规划 8/3 印发，大功率重卡充电首次写进国家货运通道布局。

Hormuz interim-channel talks intensified: Brent settled the week down 7.3% at $83.55/bbl (from 90.12), still ~16% above the pre-war ~$72; Vietnam cut fuel prices on Aug 6 after three straight hikes, and forecasters expect China's Aug 14 window to cut diesel ~RMB 375/t. The power-system plan issued Aug 3 puts high-power heavy-truck charging on national freight corridors for the first time.

信号Signal

7 月新能源重卡 2.86 万辆（+60% YoY）、新能源牵引车 2.18 万辆（+48% YoY，营运证口径），传统燃油/燃气重卡同月下降——电驱桥成头部厂商的产品主战场。JOST 月底在 Elmia 展摄像辅助第五轮与轴梁储气挂车轴，同门 Hyva 剥离印度车身业务、收敛到液压核心件。

July NEV heavy trucks hit 28.6k (+60% YoY) and NEV tractors 21.8k (+48% YoY, operating-certificate basis) while diesel/gas trucks fell — e-axles are now the lead OEMs' product battleground. JOST brings a camera-assisted fifth wheel and an air-storing trailer axle to Elmia this month, while stablemate Hyva divests its Indian body business to focus on core hydraulics.

需求Demand

越南是辖区最强需求面：前 7 个月公共投资放款完成计划 41.9%（同比多放 86.8 万亿盾）、货运量 +14.9% YoY、IIP +11.4%。印尼 RKAB 批复、EV 刺激包与 BI 议息全部压到 8 月中下旬，矿卡增量继续等配额；印尼 H1 卡车批发 +39% YoY，日系三强吃下零售大头。

Vietnam leads regional demand: seven-month disbursement at 41.9% of plan (VND 86.8tn more YoY), freight +14.9% YoY, IIP +11.4%. Indonesia's RKAB approvals, EV stimulus and BI meeting all land in mid/late August, so incremental mining-truck demand keeps waiting on quotas; Indonesia's H1 truck wholesales rose 39% YoY with Japanese brands taking the retail podium.

结论Verdict

柴油缓解是预期、电动化是现实——配套路线图继续向电驱桥与挂车智能件倾斜。首要监测项：8/14 中国调价窗口；印尼 8/18–19 议息、RKAB 批复与 EV 刺激包；泰国 240 亿铢换购提案过会与否。

Diesel relief is an expectation; electrification is a fact — keep tilting the component roadmap toward e-axles and smart trailer content. Top watch items: China's Aug 14 pricing window; Indonesia's Aug 18–19 BI meeting, RKAB approvals and EV stimulus; whether Thailand's THB 24bn replacement proposal clears committee.

本周要点Key Takeaways
01宏观与政策环境Macro & Policy4
领先指标Leading置信 中Confidence Mid

中国：「十五五」电力规划 8/3 印发——沿国家货运通道建大功率重卡充电设施，2030 年充电基础设施超 4,000 万个China: the 15th Five-Year power-system plan, issued Aug 3, puts high-power heavy-truck charging along national freight corridors — 40m+ charging points by 20301

国家发展改革委、国家能源局 8/3 印发《新型电力系统建设「十五五」规划》，规划全文明确「结合国家主要货运通道布局，沿线建设大功率重卡充电设施」；到 2030 年充电基础设施总量超过 4,000 万个（2025 年为 2,009 万个）、其中大功率充电设施约 30 万个，形成支撑超过 1.1 亿辆电动汽车的充电服务能力。这是继 220 亿元置换资金、11 部门新能源重卡实施方案（3 万公里零碳货运通道，上期已报）之后，重卡干线补能第一次进入国家级电力规划的指标框架。The NDRC and National Energy Administration issued the 15th Five-Year plan for the new-type power system on Aug 3. The full text states verbatim that high-power heavy-truck charging facilities will be built along national trunk freight corridors; by 2030 total charging infrastructure is to exceed 40 million points (from 20.09 million in 2025), including roughly 300,000 high-power chargers, supporting over 110 million EVs. After the RMB 22bn scrappage fund and the 11-ministry NEV heavy-truck plan (30,000 km of zero-carbon freight corridors, covered last week), this is the first time trunk-line truck charging enters a national power-planning framework with hard indicators.

关键数据（事实层）Key data (facts)2030 充电设施 >4,000 万个2030: >40m charging points大功率充电 ~30 万个~300k high-power chargers货运通道沿线重卡充电Truck charging on freight corridors
事件Event

两部委 8/3 印发「十五五」电力规划，把大功率重卡充电写进国家货运通道布局，并给出 2030 年量化指标。Two ministries issued the power-system plan on Aug 3, writing high-power truck charging into national freight-corridor planning with quantified 2030 targets.

机制Mechanism

干线大功率补能是电动重卡从矿区/港口/城建等短倒场景走向长途牵引车的最后一块短板；规划级安排降低运营商与桩企的投资不确定性。Trunk-line high-power charging is the last missing piece for electric heavy trucks to move beyond mining/port/urban duty cycles into long-haul tractors; plan-level backing cuts investment uncertainty for operators and charge-point builders.

市场Market

2027–30 年干线电动牵引车渗透有望加速，柴油/LNG 干线车换购结构或继续向电动倾斜——7 月新能源牵引车 +48% YoY 已在验证（见 02 章）。Trunk-line electric-tractor penetration may accelerate through 2027–30, and diesel/LNG replacement demand is likely to keep tilting electric — July NEV tractors at +48% YoY are already validating the direction (see section 02).

业务Business

干线电动化直接放大电驱桥对传统驱动桥的替代面——从短倒场景扩展到长途干线；车轴产品线路线图须按 2027–30 干线电动化节奏对表。Trunk-line electrification widens e-axle substitution of conventional drive axles from short-haul niches to long-haul trunk routes; the axle product roadmap needs to track the 2027–30 trunk electrification cadence.

净判断Net

补能从市场行为升格为规划约束，电驱桥替代主线再添一层政策确定性。Charging build-out has been upgraded from market behavior to planning mandate, adding another layer of policy certainty to the e-axle substitution trend.

前提Premise规划指标按期执行，货运通道充电专项细则跟进落地。Plan targets are executed on schedule and corridor-charging implementation rules follow.
证伪信号Falsifier大功率设施建设进度明显低于规划节奏，或干线电动重卡渗透率连续两个季度停滞。High-power charger build-out clearly lags the plan, or trunk-line electric-truck penetration stalls for two consecutive quarters.
追踪锚点Track货运通道充电专项细则；每月第一商用车网新能源牵引车渗透率。Corridor-charging implementation rules; monthly NEV-tractor penetration from cvworld.
领先指标Leading置信 中Confidence Mid

霍尔木兹谈到宣布前夜：Brent 全周结算价跌 7.3% 至 83.55 美元——越南油价三连涨后首降、中国 8/14 窗口预估下调，海峡实际仍闭Hormuz talks reach the eve of an announcement: Brent settled the week 7.3% lower at $83.55 — Vietnam cut pump prices after three straight hikes and China's Aug 14 window points down; the strait itself remains closed2

美伊阿曼临时航道谈判本周密集推进：8/5 白宫称协议「imminent」；8/7 伊朗宣布与阿曼就临时航道达成一致——禁止美/以船只通行、生效以解除对伊港口封锁为前提，阿曼未表态、海湾五国拒绝伊方管控方案；伊方 8/6 已明确这是为期 2–4 个月的临时航道、不等于海峡全面重开。Brent 前三个交易日累跌约 11%，8/6 因伊朗议会审议禁美/以船只法案单日反弹约 4%，8/7 结算 83.55 美元/桶——全周结算口径 −7.3%（90.12 → 83.55），仍较战前 2 月约 72 美元高约 16%；海峡自 2 月底以来实质关闭，近期日过峡仅 8–29 艘。传导端：越南 8/6 油价三连涨后首降（柴油 −0.29% 至 27,540 盾/升、E10 RON95 −2.32%，前次 7/30 高点 27,620 盾），北部柴油短缺经南油北调初步缓解；中国下一调价窗口 8/14，机构测算柴油约下调 375 元/吨（预估，以发改委公告为准）。US-Iran-Oman interim-channel talks intensified: on Aug 5 the White House called a deal imminent; on Aug 7 Iran announced agreement with Oman on an interim corridor — barring US/Israeli vessels, effective only once the port blockade on Iran is lifted, with Oman itself silent and five Gulf states rejecting Iranian control of the strait; Iran said on Aug 6 this is a 2–4-month interim channel, not a full reopening. Brent fell ~11% over the first three sessions, rebounded ~4% on Aug 6 as Iran's parliament debated banning US/Israeli transits, and settled Aug 7 at $83.55/bbl — down 7.3% on the week on a settlement basis (90.12 → 83.55), still ~16% above the pre-war ~$72 of February; the strait has been effectively shut since late February, with only 8–29 daily transits recently. Pass-through: Vietnam cut fuel prices on Aug 6 after three straight hikes (diesel −0.29% to VND 27,540/l, E10 RON95 −2.32%, versus the Jul 30 peak of 27,620), with northern diesel shortages easing on south-to-north reallocation; China's next pricing window falls on Aug 14, with analysts projecting a diesel cut of ~RMB 375/t (forecast, pending the NDRC notice).

关键数据（事实层）Key data (facts)Brent 83.55 美元 · 周 −7.3%（结算）Brent $83.55 · −7.3% w/w (settle)越南柴油 −0.29% → 27,540 盾/升Vietnam diesel −0.29% → VND 27,540/l中国 8/14 窗口 · 预估柴油 −375 元/吨China Aug 14 window · diesel ~−RMB 375/t (est.)
事件Event

美伊阿曼临时航道谈判进入宣布前夜，Brent 全周回落 7.3%；越南泵价首降、中国 8/14 窗口预估下调。Interim-channel talks reached the eve of an announcement and Brent fell 7.3% on the week; Vietnamese pump prices turned down and China's Aug 14 window points lower.

机制Mechanism

柴油占重卡 TCO 约 30–40%，原油回落经各国调价机制在 1–2 个调价周期内传导至泵价；但协议未签署、海峡未通航，本周回落主要是风险溢价回吐。Diesel is roughly 30–40% of heavy-truck TCO, and crude moves pass through to pump prices within one or two adjustment cycles; but with no signed deal and no transits restored, this week's decline is mostly risk-premium unwind.

市场Market

辖区车队燃料成本压力有望边际缓解、购车观望情绪或松动；油气价差收窄会略微削弱燃气与电动重卡的相对经济性，但油价绝对水平仍高，结构性利好电动化的格局未变。Fleet fuel-cost pressure across the region may ease at the margin and purchase hesitation could soften; a narrower oil-gas spread slightly dents the relative economics of LNG and electric trucks, but with crude still elevated the structural tailwind for electrification stands.

业务Business

柴油车换购意愿若随泵价回落修复，传统车轴/牵引座出货短期受益；电驱桥替代的长期主线不因此转向。If diesel replacement demand recovers with pump prices, conventional axle and fifth-wheel volumes benefit near term; the long-run e-axle substitution trend does not reverse.

净判断Net

方向变了、水平没变——高柴油的挤压从「加剧」转为「松动」，判断升级要等协议签署与过峡船流恢复。Direction changed, level did not — the diesel squeeze went from worsening to loosening; upgrading that judgment awaits a signed deal and restored transits.

前提Premise谈判不破裂、无新的航运袭击；中国 8/14 窗口按测算幅度落地。Talks do not collapse and no fresh shipping attacks occur; China's Aug 14 window lands near the projected cut.
证伪信号Falsifier协议正式签署且过峡船流恢复常态、Brent 回到 75 美元下方——高油价主线失效；反向：谈判破裂，油价再上 90 美元。A signed deal with normalized transits and Brent below $75 would end the high-oil thesis; conversely, a collapse in talks sends crude back above $90.
追踪锚点Track8/14 中国调价窗口公告；过峡船流数据；下周 Brent 结算与新加坡 gasoil 评估（本周裂解价差无公开数）。China's Aug 14 pricing notice; strait transit counts; next week's Brent settlements and Singapore gasoil assessments (no public crack-spread data this week).
领先指标Leading置信 中Confidence Mid

印尼：EV 刺激包「两三周内」公布、RKAB 批复与央行行长人选仍悬——泰国 240 亿铢老旧卡车换购提案同步在审Indonesia: an EV stimulus package due 'in two to three weeks' while RKAB approvals and the BI governorship stay open — Thailand's THB 24bn truck-replacement proposal is under review in parallel3

印尼财政部长 Purbaya 8/4 表示，总统 Prabowo 将在未来两到三周内宣布 EV 刺激计划：覆盖约 50 万辆电动摩托车与电动汽车、电摩每辆补贴 500 万卢比（约 277 美元）、部分购置增值税豁免最高 100%——报道仅提乘用车与电摩，商用车暂不在列（工业部长补充：激励聚焦本地高附加值产品）。供给侧两个待决项依旧：能矿部长 Bahlil 8/3 确认 2026 RKAB 配额有调整、但拒绝披露数字（基础配额 2.6 亿湿吨，vs 2025 年 3.79 亿湿吨），矿权选拔部令也未发布；8 月上期 HBA 124.44 美元/吨（环比 −5.6%），下期 8/15 公布。央行方面，代理行长 Destry Damayanti 是正式行长头号人选、提名待国会 8/14 复会后启动，8/18–19 议息（BI-Rate 现为 5.75%）；卢比周内小幅走强（8/7 约 17,795/美元）。同一区域，泰国交通部 240 亿泰铢（约 7.1 亿美元）方案——以补贴＋低息贷款＋税收优惠替换最多 8 万辆老旧营运车辆（含卡车、巴士、出租车与嘟嘟车）——仍在财政部牵头的委员会审议，未获内阁批准。Indonesia's finance minister Purbaya said on Aug 4 that President Prabowo will announce an EV stimulus within two to three weeks: covering roughly 500,000 electric motorcycles and cars, a IDR 5m (~$277) subsidy per e-motorcycle, and VAT exemptions of up to 100% on some purchases — reports mention only passenger cars and e-motorcycles, with commercial vehicles not yet included (the industry minister adds incentives will focus on high local-value products). Both supply-side items remain unresolved: energy minister Bahlil confirmed on Aug 3 that 2026 RKAB quotas are being adjusted but declined to disclose totals (base quota 260m wet tonnes vs 379m in 2025), and the mining-permit selection decree is still unpublished; the early-August HBA printed $124.44/t (−5.6% MoM), with the next fixing due Aug 15. At the central bank, acting governor Destry Damayanti is the front-runner for the permanent role, with the nomination to start once parliament reconvenes Aug 14 and the rate meeting set for Aug 18–19 (BI-Rate 5.75%); the rupiah firmed slightly (≈17,795/USD on Aug 7). In the same region, Thailand's transport ministry has a THB 24bn (~$710m) proposal — subsidies plus soft loans and tax breaks to replace up to 80,000 aging commercial vehicles including trucks, buses, taxis and tuk-tuks — still under a finance-ministry-led committee, not yet cabinet-approved.

关键数据（事实层）Key data (facts)EV 刺激包 · 两三周内公布EV stimulus · due in 2–3 weeksRKAB 基础配额 2.6 亿湿吨（2025：3.79 亿）RKAB base 260m wt (2025: 379m)泰国换购提案 240 亿铢 · 8 万辆Thai swap plan THB 24bn · 80k vehicles
事件Event

印尼 EV 刺激包进入公布倒计时、RKAB 批复继续悬置、央行行长提名与议息压到 8 月中下旬；泰国卡车换购提案在委员会审议。Indonesia's EV stimulus enters its countdown, RKAB approvals stay suspended, and the BI nomination plus rate meeting land in mid/late August; Thailand's truck-replacement proposal sits in committee.

机制Mechanism

EV 激励现覆盖乘用车与电摩、对商用车直接拉动有限，但充电与本地化生态外溢；镍 RKAB 总量决定矿区 tonne-km 与矿卡需求；泰国方案若过会将直接创造置换需求。The EV incentives as reported cover passenger cars and e-motorcycles, so direct CV pull is limited, though charging and localization ecosystems spill over; nickel RKAB totals set mining tonne-km and truck demand; Thailand's plan, if approved, creates replacement demand directly.

市场Market

印尼商用车短期受政策直接拉动有限、矿卡增量继续等配额落地；泰国若按 8 万辆规模落地，2026 下半年商用车置换或有一波集中释放（现为提案，或推迟）。Indonesian CV demand gets little direct near-term policy lift and incremental mining-truck demand keeps waiting on quotas; if Thailand's 80,000-vehicle scheme lands, H2 2026 could see a concentrated CV replacement wave (still a proposal; may slip).

业务Business

矿卡/自卸配套在印尼的能见度仍取决于 RKAB 总量；泰国方案明确含卡车——若覆盖重卡与挂车，前装与售后配套均受益，值得在提案阶段即对接渠道。Visibility for mining-truck and tipper content in Indonesia still hinges on RKAB totals; Thailand's plan explicitly includes trucks — if heavy trucks and trailers qualify, both OE and aftermarket content benefit, worth engaging channels at the proposal stage.

净判断Net

辖区两大政策都停在宣布前夜——对配套供应商是观察窗口，不是下单信号。Both policy packages sit at the eve of announcement — for component suppliers this is a watching window, not an order signal.

前提Premise刺激包如期公布、RKAB 批复 8 月内落地、泰国提案年内过会。The stimulus lands on schedule, RKAB approvals come within August, and Thailand's proposal clears committee this year.
证伪信号Falsifier刺激包再度推迟或明确排除商用车；泰国提案被否；RKAB 总量显著低于 2.6 亿湿吨基线，矿卡需求下修。The stimulus slips again or explicitly excludes CVs; Thailand's proposal is rejected; RKAB totals come in well below the 260m-wt base, cutting mining-truck demand.
追踪锚点Track印尼总统宣布节点（8 月下旬）；BI 8/18–19 议息与行长提名；HBA 8/15；泰国委员会结论。Indonesia's presidential announcement (late August); the Aug 18–19 BI meeting and governor nomination; the Aug 15 HBA; Thailand's committee decision.
已传导Transmitted置信 高Confidence High

越南：前 7 个月公共投资放款完成计划 41.9%、同比多放 86.8 万亿盾——货运量 +14.9%、IIP +11.4%，需求三线齐升Vietnam: seven-month public-investment disbursement at 41.9% of plan, VND 86.8tn more than a year ago — freight +14.9% and IIP +11.4%; demand firing on all three lines4

8/3 政府 7 月例会与统计局公报：截至 7 月底公共投资放款估计 425.3 万亿盾、完成总理下达计划的 41.9%，同比多放 86.8 万亿盾、进度快约 3.6 个百分点（财政部口径；统计局「实现投资」口径为 445.5 万亿盾、+18.4% YoY、完成年计划 39.0%）。前 7 个月货运量 19.33 亿吨（+14.9% YoY），其中公路 14.4 亿吨（+15.9% YoY、占约 74.5%）；7 月单月 2.943 亿吨（+17.0% YoY）。IIP 7 月 +14.5% YoY、前 7 个月 +11.4%（例会称为 2019 年以来同期最高）。成本端未松：柴油 27,540 盾/升仍处高位（见上条），车队中长期贷款利率 6 月末约 8.1–10.5%/年（汇总口径、与上期引用的 6.5–8.9% 不同源，待核实）。越美 301 本周无新节点（11/29 裁定继续跟踪）。The Aug 3 cabinet meeting and statistics-office release: public-investment disbursement reached an estimated VND 425.3tn by end-July, 41.9% of the PM-assigned plan — VND 86.8tn more than a year earlier and ~3.6pp faster (finance-ministry basis; the statistics office's realized-investment measure is VND 445.5tn, +18.4% YoY, 39.0% of plan). Seven-month freight volume hit 1,933mt (+14.9% YoY), of which road accounted for 1.44bn tonnes (+15.9% YoY, ~74.5% share); July alone was 294.3mt (+17.0% YoY). IIP rose 14.5% YoY in July and 11.4% for the seven months (the strongest same-period print since 2019, per the meeting). Costs have not eased: diesel remains elevated at VND 27,540/l (see above), and fleet medium/long-term lending rates averaged roughly 8.1–10.5%/yr at end-June (aggregated basis, a different series from last week's 6.5–8.9%; to be verified). No new US-301 developments this week (the Nov 29 ruling remains on watch).

关键数据（事实层）Key data (facts)放款 425.3 万亿盾 · 计划 41.9%Disbursed VND 425.3tn · 41.9% of plan货运前 7 月 +14.9% YoY7M freight +14.9% YoYIIP 前 7 月 +11.4% YoY7M IIP +11.4% YoY
事件Event

放款、货运、工业产出三组 7 月数据同周发布、全部加速。Disbursement, freight and industrial-output data for July all landed in the same week — and all accelerated.

机制Mechanism

公共投资放款领先基建开工 1–2 个季度，直接拉动工程自卸与搅拌车；货运量 +15% 代表干线运力需求，运价与车队盈利支撑换购。Public-investment disbursement leads construction starts by one to two quarters and pulls tipper/mixer demand directly; freight volume up ~15% signals trunk-line capacity needs, and carrier economics support replacement purchases.

市场Market

越南工程车与干线重卡需求下半年有望继续走强；但高柴油与约 8–10% 的贷款利率抬高持有成本，买家价格敏感度上升，中国低价 CBU 的份额侵蚀或同步加剧。Construction and trunk-line truck demand in Vietnam looks set to stay firm in H2; but high diesel and ~8–10% lending rates raise holding costs, sharpening price sensitivity — likely amplifying share erosion by low-priced Chinese CBUs.

业务Business

挂车/牵引座/车轴配套在越南的前装与售后机会扩大；同一逻辑下中系整车带自配电驱桥与车轴进场，基本盘竞争加剧——机会与替代同源。OE and aftermarket opportunities for trailer, fifth-wheel and axle content in Vietnam expand; by the same logic, Chinese OEMs arrive with in-house e-axles and axles, intensifying competition for the installed base — the opportunity and the substitution share one root.

净判断Net

越南是辖区当前唯一需求、放款、货运三线齐升的市场——增长真实，份额之争同样真实。Vietnam is the region's only market where demand, disbursement and freight are all rising — the growth is real, and so is the share fight.

前提Premise放款节奏下半年不减速；301 关税不升级。Disbursement does not decelerate in H2 and the 301 tariffs do not escalate.
证伪信号Falsifier8 月放款进度环比回落；美 11/29 裁定对越负面，推高整车/零部件出口合规成本。August disbursement slows MoM, or the Nov 29 US ruling goes against Vietnam and raises vehicle/component export-compliance costs.
追踪锚点TrackGSO 9 月初 8 个月公报（放款/IIP/货运）；11/29 裁定节点。GSO's eight-month release in early September (disbursement/IIP/freight); the Nov 29 ruling.
02重卡 / 商用车市场Trucks & Commercial Vehicles2

7 月新能源重卡 2.86 万辆（+60% YoY、−12% MoM）——新能源牵引车 2.18 万辆（+48% YoY），重汽双榜领跑，电驱桥成产品主战场July NEV heavy trucks at 28.6k units (+60% YoY, −12% MoM) — NEV tractors at 21.8k (+48% YoY); Sinotruk leads both tables and e-axles become the product battleground5

第一商用车网营运证口径（不含出口与军车）：7 月新能源重卡 2.86 万辆，同比 +60%、环比 −12%（6 月曾 +107% YoY，同比增幅收窄）；其中新能源牵引车 2.18 万辆（+48% YoY、−13% MoM），前十企业合计份额 91.5%。企业端：新能源重卡月榜重汽 4,956 辆、三一 4,022 辆居前；牵引车榜重汽 3,293 辆、解放 3,231 辆、徐工 3,141 辆胶着。原文归纳的驱动因素：老旧营运货车报废更新补贴细则陆续落地、油气价差令燃气车经济性优势缩小、以及电驱桥/超充产品力——重汽同周推出汕德卡 513kWh 电驱桥牵引车，新一代集成式电驱桥支持两电机/三电机方案、厂商称每公里约 1 度电（厂商口径，产品内核自软文中剥离）。7 月重卡整体批发数据截至 8/10 未发布（1–7 月行业累计同比约 +21%，转载口径、待核实）。On cvworld's operating-certificate basis (excluding exports and military): July NEV heavy trucks reached 28.6k units, +60% YoY and −12% MoM (June was +107% YoY, so the growth rate is narrowing); NEV tractors accounted for 21.8k (+48% YoY, −13% MoM), with the top ten holding a combined 91.5% share. By maker: Sinotruk led the NEV heavy-truck table at 4,956 units ahead of Sany's 4,022; the tractor table was a near tie — Sinotruk 3,293, FAW Jiefang 3,231, XCMG 3,141. Drivers as summarized by the source: scrappage-and-renewal subsidy rules landing across provinces, a narrow oil-gas spread eroding LNG's economics, and e-axle/megawatt-charging product strength — the same week Sinotruk launched the Sitrak 513 kWh e-axle tractor, whose new integrated e-axle supports two- or three-motor configurations at a claimed ~1 kWh/km (manufacturer figures; product core extracted from a promotional article). The overall July heavy-truck wholesale number was unpublished as of Aug 10 (industry cumulative Jan–Jul roughly +21% YoY, secondary source, to be verified).

关键数据Key data新能源重卡 2.86 万辆 · +60% YoYNEV HDT 28.6k · +60% YoY新能源牵引车 2.18 万辆 · +48% YoYNEV tractors 21.8k · +48% YoY牵引车前十份额 91.5%Tractor top-10 share 91.5%
直接关切Directly material对业务的含义Implication

传统燃油/燃气重卡 7 月双双下降、新能源独增六成——淡季里电驱桥已从技术选项变成头部厂商的产品主战场。对车轴供应商，干线牵引车电动化每推进一个百分点，传统驱动桥的可服务市场就收缩一分；配套切换节奏要以月度渗透率为准绳。

Diesel and LNG heavy trucks both fell in July while NEV units grew 60% — in the off-season, e-axles have moved from a technology option to the lead OEMs' main product battleground. For an axle supplier, every percentage point of tractor electrification shrinks the serviceable market for conventional drive axles; pace the portfolio switch against monthly penetration data.

福田 7 月整车近 5.2 万辆（+12.6% YoY）、重卡近 1.2 万辆（+4.3% YoY）——出口 +90.7%、新能源 +44.8%，淡季靠两台引擎Foton in July: ~52k total units (+12.6% YoY), heavy trucks ~12k (+4.3% YoY) — exports +90.7% and NEV +44.8% carry the off-season6

厂商发布口径（软文剥离）：福田 7 月整车销量近 5.2 万辆（+12.6% YoY）、1–7 月累计超 41.2 万辆（+10.4% YoY）；其中重卡 7 月近 1.2 万辆（+4.3% YoY）、1–7 月超 10 万辆（+30.7% YoY）；7 月海外销量同比 +90.7%、新能源销量同比 +44.8%（两项绝对量未披露）。同稿给出的行业背景：7 月为高温传统淡季，上半年置换需求部分透支、基建开工节奏放缓，终端需求平淡。Manufacturer-reported figures (stripped of promotional copy): Foton sold nearly 52k vehicles in July (+12.6% YoY) and over 412k cumulatively in Jan–Jul (+10.4% YoY); heavy trucks were nearly 12k in July (+4.3% YoY) and over 100k for Jan–Jul (+30.7% YoY); July overseas sales rose 90.7% YoY and NEV sales 44.8% YoY (absolute volumes undisclosed for both). The same release frames the industry backdrop: July is the hot-season trough, replacement demand was partly pulled forward into H1, and construction starts slowed, leaving end demand flat.

关键数据Key data重卡 1.2 万辆 · +4.3% YoYHDT ~12k · +4.3% YoY1–7 月重卡 +30.7% YoYJan–Jul HDT +30.7% YoY7 月出口 +90.7% YoYJuly exports +90.7% YoY
对业务的含义Implication

淡季里内需只剩个位数增长，出口与新能源两条线撑住厂商报表——与海关 7 月汽车出口 +57%（全口径，见 06 章）同向。下半年中国重卡的量：内看置换资金投放，外看出口持续性。

With domestic demand down to single-digit growth in the trough month, exports and NEV volumes carry the OEM's numbers — consistent with July customs vehicle exports at +57% (all-vehicle basis, see section 06). For H2 China heavy-truck volume: watch scrappage-fund deployment at home and export durability abroad.

03挂车 / 零部件与竞争对手Trailers, Components & Competitors4

JOST 将在 Elmia Lastbil 展出摄像辅助接驳第五轮 King Pin Finder（JSK42）与轴梁即储气罐的 DCA AIRMASTER 挂车轴（减重至多 50 kg）JOST heads to Elmia Lastbil with the camera-assisted King Pin Finder fifth wheel (on JSK42) and the DCA AIRMASTER trailer axle whose beam doubles as a 40-litre air tank (up to 50 kg lighter)7

JOST World 8/19–22 在瑞典延雪平 Elmia Lastbil 展出 JOST＋Hyva＋ROCKINGER＋TRIDEC 组合的接驳、液压、转向与车轴产品。两件展品直接落在我们的产品线上：King Pin Finder 把摄像头集成进第五轮（展出于 JSK42 型），倒车接驳时提供实时可视引导对准高度与角度，减少接驳失误、设备损伤与出车检查时间；DCA AIRMASTER 挂车轴把轴梁本体做成 40 升压缩空气储气罐，取消独立储气筒、减重至多 50 公斤并腾出底盘空间。JOST World exhibits at Elmia Lastbil in Jönköping on Aug 19–22, showing couplings, hydraulics, steering and axles across the JOST, Hyva, ROCKINGER and TRIDEC brands. Two exhibits land squarely on our product lines: the King Pin Finder integrates a camera into the fifth wheel (shown on a JSK42), giving live visual guidance on height and angle during reversing to cut coupling errors, equipment damage and departure-check time; the DCA AIRMASTER trailer axle turns the axle beam itself into a 40-litre compressed-air reservoir, eliminating separate tanks, cutting up to 50 kg of weight and freeing chassis space.

关键数据Key data第五轮集成摄像接驳辅助Camera-assisted fifth wheel轴梁＝40L 储气罐 · −50 kgAxle beam = 40L air tank · −50 kg
直接关切Directly material对业务的含义Implication

竞对正在重定义第五轮与挂车轴的价值——前者从机械件变成「感知＋辅助」智能件，后者把轻量化与功能集成捆在一起卖。我们两大品类的对标清单需把这两件展品加进去，评估各自的成本-价值曲线。

The competitor is redefining the value of both the fifth wheel and the trailer axle — one becomes a sensing-and-assistance smart component, the other bundles lightweighting with functional integration. Both belong on our benchmarking list, with a cost-value assessment for each.

Hyva 将印度自卸车身业务出售给 Belrise——JOST 系收敛到举升油缸、液压与数字倾卸核心件Hyva agrees to sell its Indian tipper-body business to Belrise — the JOST group narrows to tipping cylinders, hydraulics and digital tipping systems8

Hyva 已签署约束性协议，将其印度自卸车身业务出售给 Belrise Industries（待监管批准与交割条件）。该业务是 Hyva 体系内唯一的整车身设计制造单元；出售后 Hyva 保留并继续投资印度的倾卸套件与液压系统业务，服务 OEM、车身厂、经销商与终端客户。母公司 JOST World 明确此举意在聚焦核心组合：举升油缸、液压零部件与数字倾卸系统。Hyva has signed a binding agreement to divest its Indian tipper-body business to Belrise Industries (subject to regulatory approvals and closing conditions). It was the only operation in Hyva dedicated to designing and building complete tipper bodies; Hyva will keep owning and investing in its Indian tipping-kits and hydraulic-systems business, serving OEMs, body builders, dealers and customers. Parent JOST World frames the move as sharpening focus on the core portfolio: tipping cylinders, hydraulic components and digital tipping systems.

关键数据Key data印度车身业务 → BelriseIndian body business → Belrise保留倾卸套件＋液压系统Keeps tipping kits + hydraulics
直接关切Directly material对业务的含义Implication

JOST 系同一个月里一手做品牌组合展示（Elmia）、一手剥离低毛利整装业务——竞对在做减法，把资源压到高毛利核心零部件上；其印度液压件渠道反而更聚焦，南亚自卸配套的竞争密度不降反升。

In the same month the JOST group both showcases its combined brand portfolio (Elmia) and sheds a low-margin assembly business — the competitor is subtracting, concentrating resources on high-margin core components; its Indian hydraulics channel gets sharper, so competitive density in South Asian tipper content rises rather than falls.

戴姆勒卡车 Q2：销量 86,707 辆、上调全年指引——ARCHION 交易带来约 14 亿欧元现金流入Daimler Truck Q2: 86,707 units and full-year guidance raised — the ARCHION transaction brought in ~EUR 1.4bn of cash9

全球头部商用车 OEM 戴姆勒卡车 8/7 发布 Q2：集团销量 86,707 辆、新增订单 74,448 辆（均同比增长）；工业业务收入 114 亿欧元、调整后息税前利润 8.38 亿欧元、调整后销售回报率 6.8%。全年指引上调：调整后 EBIT 36–41 亿欧元（原 32–37 亿）、集团销量 34–37 万辆（原 33–36 万），主因北美卡车销量预期上修与关税负面影响减弱。同日 IR 披露：ARCHION（日野-三菱扶桑整合体）二次配售为其带来约 14 亿欧元现金流入、对报告业绩净正向影响 9.53 亿欧元，持股降至约 25% 时预计再获 5–6 亿欧元（ARCHION 自身本周无新硬事实，Q1 财报待 8 月中旬）。Daimler Truck, a lead global CV OEM, reported Q2 on Aug 7: group sales of 86,707 units and incoming orders of 74,448 (both up YoY); industrial-business revenue of EUR 11.4bn, adjusted EBIT of EUR 838m and an adjusted return on sales of 6.8%. Full-year guidance was raised: adjusted EBIT to EUR 3.6–4.1bn (from 3.2–3.7bn) and group sales to 340–370k units (from 330–360k), on a stronger North American truck outlook and fading tariff drag. The same day's IR release discloses that the ARCHION (Hino–Fuso) secondary offering brought ~EUR 1.4bn of cash inflow and a net positive earnings impact of EUR 953m, with another EUR 0.5–0.6bn expected as its stake falls to ~25% (ARCHION itself had no new hard facts this week; Q1 results due mid-August).

关键数据Key dataQ2 销量 86,707 辆Q2 sales 86,707 units全年 EBIT 指引 36–41 亿欧FY adj. EBIT EUR 3.6–4.1bnARCHION 现金流入 ~14 亿欧ARCHION cash-in ~EUR 1.4bn
对业务的含义Implication

头部竞对整车厂盈利与现金同步修复、还在持续从 ARCHION 套现——采购议价与电动化投入的弹药更足；其经由 ARCHION 25% 持股保留的亚洲重卡敞口，后续资本动作继续跟踪。

The lead competitor OEM is rebuilding profit and cash at the same time, while still monetizing ARCHION — more ammunition for procurement leverage and electrification spend; its Asian heavy-truck exposure retained via the ~25% ARCHION stake stays on watch for further capital moves.

采埃孚发布可扩展 360° 主动安全系统——主挂互联以太网把挂车雷达/摄像头纳入统一感知ZF unveils a scalable 360° active-safety system — a truck-trailer Ethernet link folds trailer radar and camera data into one perception model10

采埃孚在 IAA 前的商用车技术日首发可扩展 360° 安全系统：通过连接卡车与挂车的高速车载以太网（主挂互联），把挂车侧雷达与摄像头数据并入统一环境模型，实现持续 360° 目标探测、显著减少感知盲区；基于 OnGuardMAX 可主动触发制动，覆盖欧盟 GSR 的 MOIS/BSIS 法规场景、高速公路辅助（车道保持＋带启停 ACC）与装卸园区倒车主动制动。At its pre-IAA commercial-vehicle tech day, ZF unveiled a scalable 360° safety system: a high-speed onboard Ethernet link between truck and trailer folds trailer-side radar and camera data into a single environmental model for continuous 360° object detection with far fewer blind zones; built on OnGuardMAX it can actively brake, covering the EU GSR's MOIS/BSIS use cases, highway assist (lane keeping plus stop-and-go ACC) and active braking when reversing at depots and yards.

关键数据Key data主挂以太网互联Truck-trailer Ethernet linkOnGuardMAX 主动制动OnGuardMAX active braking
对业务的含义Implication

挂车正从被动拖挂件变成传感与执行平台——感知、线束与供电将成为挂车零部件的新接口。纯机械供应商（含接驳件）面临「谁来集成」的站位问题：JOST 的摄像第五轮与采埃孚的主挂互联，是同一趋势的两端。

The trailer is turning from a passive towed unit into a sensing-and-actuation platform — perception, wiring and power become new interfaces for trailer components. Purely mechanical suppliers (couplings included) face a who-does-the-integration positioning question: JOST's camera fifth wheel and ZF's truck-trailer link are two ends of the same trend.

04矿用车 & 矿业Mining Vehicles & Mining1

同力 91 吨级混动矿卡 DTH145 车队交付巴西大型矿山承包商 R&D——宽体矿卡新能源出海再下一城Tonly delivers a fleet of 91 t DTH145 hybrid mining trucks to Brazilian contractor R&D Mineracao — another beachhead for Chinese new-energy wide-body trucks overseas11

同力重工经巴西经销商 ZAMine Service Brasil，向矿山承包商 R&D Mineracao e Construcao 交付一批 91 吨级载重 DTH145 混动矿卡。R&D 总部位于 Juiz de Fora、在巴西经营 40 年，作业覆盖 20 余座核心矿山，客户含 Anglo American、CSN、Equinox Gold 等。同力称全球在役超 7 万台、海外累计交付超 8,000 台，并称行业新能源矿卡「每两台有一台」出自同力（厂商口径）；继秘鲁之后，巴西高端矿区成为其新能源宽体产品在南美的第二个落点。Tonly Heavy Industries, via Brazilian dealer ZAMine Service Brasil, delivered a fleet of 91 t payload DTH145 hybrid mining trucks to contractor R&D Mineracao e Construcao. Headquartered in Juiz de Fora with 40 years in Brazil, R&D operates across more than 20 core mines for customers including Anglo American, CSN and Equinox Gold. Tonly claims over 70,000 units in operation worldwide and 8,000+ delivered overseas, and says one in two new-energy units in the industry is a Tonly (manufacturer claims); after Peru, high-end Brazilian mining districts become its second South American foothold for new-energy wide-body trucks.

关键数据Key data91 吨级 DTH145 混动91 t DTH145 hybrid海外累计交付 8,000+ 台（厂商口径）8,000+ delivered overseas (mfr claim)
直接关切Directly material对业务的含义Implication

宽体矿卡带着混动版本进入国际矿业承包商的核心矿山序列——矿用车轴与悬架配套的出海通道随整车打开。同力这类厂商的海外车队规模值得按季度跟踪，作为矿用配套海外化的量级锚点。

Wide-body mining trucks are entering international contractors' core-mine fleets in hybrid form — the overseas channel for mining-axle and suspension content opens with the vehicles. Track fleet sizes at makers like Tonly quarterly as the volume anchor for offshore mining-component demand.

05亚洲市场Asia Markets2
东南亚Southeast Asia

印尼：H1 卡车批发 35,934 辆（+39% YoY）——扶桑/五十铃/日野零售前三，重卡（GVW>24t）细分仍缺Indonesia: H1 truck wholesales at 35,934 units (+39% YoY) — Fuso, Isuzu and Hino lead retail; the GVW>24t heavy segment is still unpublished12

GAIKINDO 卡车口径（不含皮卡）：2026 上半年卡车批发 35,934 辆（+39% YoY，2025 年同期 25,778 辆）、零售 35,932 辆（+28% YoY）。品牌零售：三菱扶桑 17,974 辆（+54.4% YoY）、五十铃 13,430 辆（+18.9% YoY）、日野 10,569 辆（+2.6% YoY）。上期已报 CV 总批发 114,154 辆（+39% YoY）与中型卡车领涨；本条补卡车口径与品牌格局。GVW>24t 重卡细分仍无公开数（GAIKINDO 分类报表页境外 403，继续跟踪）。政策端的 EV 刺激包见 01 章。On GAIKINDO's truck definition (pickups excluded): H1 2026 truck wholesales reached 35,934 units (+39% YoY vs 25,778 a year earlier), with retail at 35,932 (+28% YoY). Brand retail: Mitsubishi Fuso 17,974 (+54.4% YoY), Isuzu 13,430 (+18.9% YoY), Hino 10,569 (+2.6% YoY). Last week covered total CV wholesales of 114,154 (+39% YoY) led by medium trucks; this entry adds the truck-only series and the brand table. A GVW>24t heavy-truck breakdown remains unpublished (GAIKINDO's category-report page returns 403 offshore; still tracking). The EV stimulus is covered in section 01.

关键数据Key dataH1 卡车批发 35,934 辆 · +39% YoYH1 truck wholesales 35,934 · +39% YoY扶桑零售 +54.4% YoYFuso retail +54.4% YoY
对业务的含义Implication

印尼卡车盘四成的增长里，日系三强吃下零售大头——物流复苏与镍链运输的整车受益方仍是日系；中国品牌在重卡端的实际渗透，要等 GVW>24t 细分数据验证，暂以中国出口分国别数据反推为辅。

Within Indonesia's ~40% truck growth, the three Japanese brands take most of the retail volume — logistics recovery and nickel-chain haulage still accrue to Japanese OEMs; actual Chinese penetration in the heavy segment awaits GVW>24t data, with China's country-level export figures as the interim proxy.

南亚South Asia

印度：SML Mahindra 7 月 1,521 辆（+10.2% YoY）——巴士 +21%、货车 −7%，轻中型卡车端仍弱India: SML Mahindra sold 1,521 units in July (+10.2% YoY) — buses +21% but cargo vehicles −7%; the light-medium truck side stays soft13

交易所公告口径：SML Mahindra（原 SML Isuzu，Mahindra 2025 年收购后更名）7 月总销量 1,521 辆（+10.2% YoY）、出口 82 辆（+74.5% YoY，低基数）、产量 1,458 辆（+11.2% YoY）。结构分化：客运（巴士）+21% YoY，货运车 −7% YoY（4–7 月货运累计 −12%）——增长靠巴士，卡车端仍弱。Tata 7 月 CV 39,641 辆（+37% YoY）与 SIAM 一季度创同期新高上期已覆盖；SIAM 7 月月度数据待月中发布。Per its stock-exchange filing: SML Mahindra (formerly SML Isuzu, renamed after Mahindra's 2025 acquisition) sold 1,521 units in July (+10.2% YoY), exported 82 (+74.5% YoY off a low base) and produced 1,458 (+11.2% YoY). The mix diverged: passenger (bus) volumes rose 21% YoY while cargo vehicles fell 7% YoY (−12% cumulative Apr–Jul) — growth rides on buses, the truck side stays soft. Tata's July CV sales of 39,641 (+37% YoY) and SIAM's record Q1 were covered last week; SIAM's July monthly data lands mid-month.

关键数据Key data7 月 1,521 辆 · +10.2% YoYJuly 1,521 units · +10.2% YoY货车 −7% YoYCargo vehicles −7% YoY
对业务的含义Implication

轻中型货运端连续走弱，与 Tata HCV 卡车 +33%（上期）形成分化——印度的增长集中在大吨位与客运；对以重卡配套为主的产品组合，印度信号整体仍偏正，锚点是 SIAM 月中的 M&HCV 细分。

Light-medium cargo keeps weakening while Tata's HCV trucks ran +33% (last week) — India's growth concentrates in heavy tonnage and buses; for a heavy-truck-weighted component portfolio the Indian signal stays net positive, with SIAM's mid-month M&HCV split as the anchor.

06中国 OEM 出海China OEM Overseas Expansion2

中国重汽任命 NEX 为泰国重型电动卡车独家分销商——河内伙伴大会前后一周内的渠道落子Sinotruk appoints NEX as its exclusive heavy-duty electric truck distributor in Thailand — a channel move within days of the Hanoi partners conference14

泰国媒体 7/26 报道：中国重汽（SINOTRUK）任命 NEX 为其重型电动卡车在泰国的独家分销商。这与其 7/27 河内全球伙伴大会（906 家伙伴、39 国到会，上期已覆盖）同属一轮密集出海动作——东南亚电动重卡渠道从多点代理走向独家绑定。Thai media reported on Jul 26 that Sinotruk has appointed NEX as its exclusive distributor for heavy-duty electric trucks in Thailand. It belongs to the same push as the Jul 27 Hanoi global partners conference (906 partners from 39 countries, covered last week) — Southeast Asian electric-truck channels are moving from multi-point dealerships to exclusive tie-ups.

关键数据Key data泰国独家分销 · 重型电动卡车Thailand exclusive · HD electric trucks
直接关切Directly material对业务的含义Implication

中系电动重卡在泰国拿到专属渠道后，干线与工程场景将直接对上日系柴油存量——整车带自配电驱桥进场，辖区腹地的车轴配套格局面临与中国国内相同的替代压力；泰国 240 亿铢换购提案若过会（见 01 章），这条渠道正好接住政策需求。

With an exclusive Thai channel, Chinese electric heavy trucks will square off against the Japanese diesel installed base in trunk and construction duty — vehicles arrive with in-house e-axles, importing the same substitution pressure seen in China into the region's heartland; if Thailand's THB 24bn replacement proposal clears committee (section 01), this channel is positioned to catch that demand.

海关 7 月：汽车整车出口 109.2 万台（+57% YoY）——1–7 月 640 万台（+54%）、出口额 1,108 亿美元（+55%）July customs: vehicle exports at 1.092m units (+57% YoY) — 6.40m units (+54%) and $110.8bn (+55%) in the first seven months15

海关总署 8/7 发布：7 月出口总值 2.71 万亿元（+17.8% YoY，人民币计价）。汽车口径（海关数据、乘联分会崔东树汇总；为全部整车、非商用车细分）：7 月整车出口 109.2 万台（+57% YoY）、出口金额 190 亿美元（+60% YoY）；1–7 月 640 万台（+54% YoY）、1,108 亿美元（+55% YoY）。卡车单独出口量值本周未发布，分国别明细待月中下旬。厂商端印证：福田 7 月海外销量 +90.7% YoY（厂商口径，见 02 章）。China customs reported on Aug 7: July exports of RMB 2.71tn (+17.8% YoY in yuan terms). On the vehicle measure (customs data compiled by CPCA's Cui Dongshu; all vehicles, not a CV breakdown): July vehicle exports reached 1.092m units (+57% YoY) worth $19.0bn (+60% YoY); Jan–Jul totaled 6.40m units (+54% YoY) and $110.8bn (+55% YoY). Truck-only export figures were not released this week; the country-level detail arrives mid-to-late month. OEM-side corroboration: Foton's July overseas sales rose 90.7% YoY (manufacturer basis, see section 02).

关键数据Key data7 月整车出口 109.2 万台 · +57% YoYJuly vehicle exports 1.092m · +57% YoY1–7 月出口额 1,108 亿美元 · +55% YoYJan–Jul $110.8bn · +55% YoY
对业务的含义Implication

出口是 7 月中国商用车厂商唯一普涨的引擎（口径为全部整车，卡车细分待发布）。分国别明细出来后，用对中亚/中东/东南亚的卡车出口反推中国品牌渗透，补辖区数据薄弱市场的能见度。

Exports were the only engine rising across Chinese CV makers in July (the figure covers all vehicles; the truck split is pending). Once country-level detail lands, back-derive Chinese-brand penetration in Central Asia, the Middle East and Southeast Asia from truck exports to fill the region's data-poor markets.

来源Sources
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2Reuters（经 Yahoo Finance）· NPR · 华盛顿邮报 · DTiNews · 腾讯财经（机构测算）Reuters (via Yahoo Finance) · NPR · The Washington Post · DTiNews · Tencent Finance (analyst estimates) Reuters 8/7 结算与周线NPR 伊朗-阿曼航道协议WaPo 临时航道 2–4 个月越南 8/6 调价（DTiNews）中国 8/14 窗口测算（预估）2026-08-05 / 08-08
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4越南政府门户 · 越南统计局（NSO）· VnEconomy · 时报财政Vietnam Government Portal · NSO Vietnam · VnEconomy · Thoi bao Tai chinh 政府 7 月例会（放款 41.9%）NSO 7 月 IIP前 7 月货运（VnEconomy）统计局实现投资口径2026-08-03 / 08-04
5第一商用车网 · 中国商用汽车网cvworld.cn (No.1 CV Network) · cv.ce.cn 7 月新能源重卡（营运证）7 月新能源牵引车汕德卡 513kWh 电驱桥牵引车2026-08-05 / 08-07
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7Global TrailerGlobal Trailer JOST @ Elmia Lastbil2026-08-05
8Global TrailerGlobal Trailer Hyva 出售印度车身业务2026-08-07
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13The Tribune（引交易所公告）The Tribune (citing the exchange filing) SML Mahindra 7 月2026-08-08
14Nation ThailandNation Thailand 重汽泰国 NEX 独家分销2026-07-26
15央视网（海关总署通稿）· 新浪财经（崔东树汇总）CCTV (customs release) · Sina Finance (Cui Dongshu compilation) 海关 7 月进出口7 月汽车出口 109.2 万台2026-08-07 / 08-08