行业动态周报 · Weekly Industry Brief

本周主线Bottom Line

综合判断：本周确定的暖流在出口 / 出海与总量——中国 5 月重卡 +23.3% YoY、商用车出口 +44%，6 月制造业 PMI 重回扩张；而辖区内需同时面对区域货币紧缩（印尼、菲律宾双双加息）与印尼镍配额封顶两个领先逆风。中国动力结构因车用气价暴涨剧变（燃气重卡 −55% MoM），但重卡总量仍增、车轴 / 连接件对动力路线中性、受总量护体。押确定性在出海与印尼、印度核心配套，内需转入观察，勿按普涨备产。

Net read: the firm tailwind this week is exports/overseas and total volume — China's May heavy-truck sales rose 23.3% YoY and CV exports 44%, and June manufacturing PMI is back in expansion — while territory domestic demand faces two leading headwinds: regional monetary tightening (Indonesia and the Philippines both hiked) and Indonesia's nickel-quota ceiling. China's powertrain mix is whipsawing as car-gas prices spiked (LNG-truck sales −55% MoM), but heavy-truck volume still grew and axles/couplings are powertrain-agnostic, insulated by the total. Put certainty on exports/overseas and core-market fitment (Indonesia, India); treat domestic demand as watch-only, not a broad upturn.

宏观Macro

外需回暖、辖区融资转紧：中国 6 月制造业 PMI 50.3（连三月扩张，新订单 +1.3pp 至 51.2；财新 50.4）；但印尼央行加息 25bp 至 5.75%（实际银行贷款利率 8.72%）、菲律宾同步加息至 4.75%——东南亚区域货币紧缩成 HDV 融资领先逆风。

External demand warming, territory financing tightening: China's June mfg PMI 50.3 (3rd month of expansion; new orders +1.3pp to 51.2; Caixin 50.4); but Bank Indonesia hiked 25bp to 5.75% (actual bank lending rate 8.72%) and the Philippines also to 4.75% — SE-Asia tightening is a leading headwind to HDV financing.

信号Signal

动力结构剧变、日系整合落地：中国车用 LNG 价涨约 50% → 燃气重卡 5 月销量环比 −55%，但重卡总量仍 +23.3% YoY（车轴对动力中性、受总量护体，纯电占比升反利好高规格前轴）；日野 + 扶桑合并为 Archion 并接任丰田系 CJPT 成员。

Powertrain mix whipsawing; Japanese consolidation live: China car-gas (LNG) prices up ~50% → gas-truck May sales −55% MoM, yet total heavy-truck still +23.3% YoY (axles are powertrain-agnostic, insulated by the total; rising BEV share lifts high-spec front-axle needs); Hino + Fuso, now Archion, replaced both as CJPT member.

需求Demand

冷热分化、以总量 / 核心市场 / 出口为暖：中国重卡 +23.3%、CV 出口 +44%、印尼日系三强 +20~35%、印度塔塔 +17%；但马来 CV −26%、菲总市场 −15.7%、泰出口生产 −36%（中东战事）；印尼镍 RKAB 配额封顶压制矿卡运量增速。

Divergent — warm in totals, core markets and exports: China HDV +23.3%, CV exports +44%, Indonesia's Japanese trio +20–35%, India's Tata +17%; but Malaysia CV −26%, Philippines total −15.7%, Thai export output −36% (Middle-East war); Indonesia's nickel-RKAB ceiling caps mining-truck haulage growth.

结论Verdict

把确定性押在“出海 / 出口 + 重卡总量”与印尼、印度核心市场的配套机会；对辖区内需按“区域紧缩 + 镍配额”两个领先逆风保持观察，勿按普涨备产。首要监测：中汽协 / 第一商用车网 6 月重卡产销、ESDM 镍 2026 RKAB 终稿、印尼银行业贷款利率、中国 7/3 柴油调价窗口。

Put certainty on exports/overseas + HDV totals and component opportunities in core markets (Indonesia, India); keep domestic demand watch-only against the twin leading headwinds (regional tightening + nickel quota), not a broad upturn. Top monitors: CAAM/CVWorld June HDV output, ESDM's final 2026 nickel RKAB, Indonesia's bank lending rate, China's 3 Jul diesel-pricing window.

本周要点Key Takeaways

中国 6 月制造业 PMI 50.3（NBS，连三月扩张；新订单 +1.3pp 至 51.2、出口订单 48.6→50.1），财新 PMI 50.4——重卡需求领先指标转暖，但 5 月国内汽车销量 −20.4% YoY，复苏靠外需。China's June NBS mfg PMI 50.3 (3rd month of expansion; new orders +1.3pp to 51.2, export orders 48.6→50.1), Caixin PMI 50.4 — a warming leading indicator for HDV demand, but May auto domestic sales fell 20.4% YoY; the recovery leans on external demand.
中国 5 月重卡销量约 10.9 万辆（+23.3% YoY，约 −6% MoM），1–5 月累计 54.4 万辆（+23.3%）；中国重汽 34,526 辆（+40.6% YoY，31.5% 份额）领跑——2026 重卡上行周期延续（出口 + 新能源拉动）。China's May heavy-truck sales ~109k (+23.3% YoY, ~−6% MoM); Jan–May 544k (+23.3%); Sinotruk led at 34,526 (+40.6% YoY, 31.5% share) — the 2026 HDV up-cycle continues (export- and NEV-led).
中国 5 月商用车出口 12 万辆（+44% YoY），其中卡车 10.6 万辆（+49% YoY）；1–5 月累计 CV 出口 53.2 万辆（+29.5% YoY）——出海是配套件的核心拉动（中汽协）。China's May CV exports 120k (+44% YoY), incl. 106k trucks (+49% YoY); Jan–May CV exports 532k (+29.5% YoY) — exports are the core pull for components (CAAM).
中国车用 LNG 价涨约 50%（越过约 5.5 元/kg 经济性盈亏线）→ 燃气重卡 5 月销量约 1.39 万辆、环比 −55%——动力结构剧烈 re-mix，但车轴 / 连接件对动力中性、受重卡总量 +23% 护体。China car-gas (LNG) prices up ~50% (past the ~RMB 5.5/kg breakeven) → May gas-truck sales ~13.9k, −55% MoM — a violent powertrain re-mix, but axles/couplings are powertrain-agnostic, insulated by the +23% total.
印尼央行加息 25bp 至 5.75%、实际银行贷款利率 8.72%；菲律宾同步加息至 4.75%——东南亚区域货币紧缩，构成远东 HDV 融资的领先逆风（车队多融资购车）。Bank Indonesia hiked 25bp to 5.75% (actual bank lending rate 8.72%); the Philippines also to 4.75% — SE-Asia monetary tightening is a leading headwind to HDV financing (fleets buy on credit).
印尼 2026 镍矿 RKAB 配额上限下调（约 260–270 vs 2025 年 379 mn wmt）、6/24 批配触顶，6 月 LME 镍价 −14% MoM——矿卡运量增速承压；设为矿卡需求跟踪锚点。Indonesia's 2026 nickel-ore RKAB ceiling cut (~260–270 vs 2025's 379 mn wmt), quotas maxed 24 Jun, June LME nickel −14% MoM — mining-truck haulage growth capped; set as the mining-truck tracking anchor.

01宏观与政策环境Macro & Policy4

领先指标Leading置信中Confidence Mid

中国 6 月制造业 PMI 升至 50.3，连续三月扩张、新订单与出口订单重回扩张China's June mfg PMI rises to 50.3 — 3rd month of expansion, new & export orders back above 50¹

国家统计局 6 月官方制造业 PMI 升至 50.3（5 月 50.0），为年内连续第三个月扩张；生产 51.4、新订单 51.2（+1.3pp、显著回升）、新出口订单由 48.6 升至 50.1（受高技术 / AI 相关出口拉动），非制造业 PMI 50.2、综合产出 PMI 50.6。财新（RatingDog）制造业 PMI 6 月 50.4（经二手财媒转述）。但外强内弱：5 月汽车国内销量同比 −20.4%、整车出口独强。NBS's June manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 (May 50.0), the third straight month of expansion; production 51.4, new orders 51.2 (+1.3pp, a notable rebound), new export orders back to 50.1 (from 48.6, on high-tech/AI exports); non-manufacturing PMI 50.2, composite 50.6. Caixin (RatingDog) mfg PMI was 50.4 in June (via secondary media). But external-strong/domestic-weak — May auto domestic sales fell 20.4% YoY while exports surged.

关键数据（事实层）Key data (facts)PMI 50.3（+0.3 MoM）PMI 50.3 (+0.3 MoM)新订单 49.9→51.2（+1.3pp）New orders 49.9→51.2 (+1.3pp)新出口订单 48.6→50.1Export orders 48.6→50.1财新 PMI 50.4Caixin PMI 50.4

事件Event

NBS 6 月制造业 PMI 50.3、连续三月站上枯荣线，新订单 +1.3pp、新出口订单回到扩张；财新 50.4。NBS June mfg PMI 50.3, third month above 50, new orders +1.3pp and export orders back in expansion; Caixin 50.4.

机制Mechanism

制造业景气与外需回暖 → 工业品产出与公路货运周转量回升 → 重卡运输需求与车队更新意愿的领先信号（PMI 领先销量约 1–2 季度）。Warming factory activity and external demand → higher industrial output and road-freight turnover → a leading signal for HDV freight demand and fleet-replacement appetite (PMI leads sales by ~1–2 quarters).

市场Market

若景气延续，下半年中国重卡终端需求与开工率或温和回升；但内需仍偏弱（5 月国内销量 −20.4% YoY、靠出口拉动），复苏基础不牢。If sustained, H2 China HDV end-demand and utilisation may firm modestly; but domestic demand stays weak (May domestic −20.4% YoY, export-led), so the base is fragile.

业务Business

重卡开工回暖将温和带动车轴 / 悬架 / 连接件的配套与更新需求；但需求弹性依赖外需与出口，若出口转弱则传导中断。Firmer HDV activity would modestly support axle/suspension/coupling fitment and replacement; but the elasticity hinges on external demand — if exports weaken, transmission breaks.

净判断Net

领先指标转暖、但内需未确认——偏正面、力度有限，不宜线性外推。A warming leading indicator with domestic demand unconfirmed — mildly positive, limited, not to be extrapolated linearly.

前提PremisePMI 领先货运与重卡销量约 1–2 季度；高技术 / AI 出口链持续。PMI leads freight and HDV sales by ~1–2 quarters; the high-tech/AI export chain persists.

证伪信号Falsifier7 月 PMI 回落至 50 下方，或新出口订单再度收缩。July PMI slips below 50, or new export orders contract again.

追踪锚点Track7/31 NBS 7 月 PMI、中汽协 6 月重卡产销、CFLP 物流景气指数（5 月 50.3）。NBS July PMI (31 Jul), CAAM June HDV output, CFLP Logistics Prosperity Index (May 50.3).

已传导Transmitted置信中Confidence Mid

中国车用 LNG 价涨约 50% → 燃气重卡 5 月销量环比 −55%，动力结构剧烈 re-mix（大宗 → 动力路线传导）China car-gas (LNG) up ~50% → May gas-truck sales −55% MoM, a violent powertrain re-mix (commodity → drivetrain)²

车用天然气（LNG）价格 5 月同比涨约 50%（部分市场 >6,000 元/吨、零售 >7 元/kg），越过燃气重卡约 5.5 元/kg 的经济性盈亏线；叠加柴油 6/18 下调 495 元/吨，燃气重卡相对柴油 / 电动的 TCO 优势消失。结果：5 月燃气重卡销量约 1.39 万辆、环比 −55%（连续第二月下滑），买家向柴油与纯电切换；而重卡整体仍 +23.3% YoY——动力结构剧变、总盘未垮。发改委《2026 年 5 月全国天然气运行快报》（6/29）证实气市偏紧。Car-gas (LNG) prices rose ~50% YoY in May (some markets >RMB 6,000/t, retail >RMB 7/kg), past the ~RMB 5.5/kg breakeven for gas trucks; with diesel cut RMB 495/t on 18 Jun, the LNG-truck TCO edge over diesel/electric vanished. Result: May gas-truck sales ~13.9k, −55% MoM (2nd straight drop), buyers rotating to diesel and battery-electric — yet total heavy-truck still +23.3% YoY. NDRC's May natural-gas operation report (29 Jun) confirms a tight gas market.

关键数据（事实层）Key data (facts)车用 LNG +~50% YoY（>6,000 元/吨）Car-gas LNG +~50% YoY (>RMB 6,000/t)燃气重卡盈亏线 ~5.5 元/kgGas-truck breakeven ~RMB 5.5/kg燃气重卡 5 月 1.39 万（−55% MoM）Gas-truck May 13.9k (−55% MoM)柴油 6/18 −495 元/吨Diesel −RMB 495/t (18 Jun)

事件Event

5 月车用 LNG 价同比 +~50%、越过 ~5.5 元/kg 盈亏线，柴油同期下调 495 元/吨。May car-gas LNG +~50% YoY past the ~RMB 5.5/kg breakeven, diesel cut RMB 495/t.

机制Mechanism

气价高企 + 柴油回落 → 燃气重卡相对柴油 / 电动的 TCO 优势消失 → 购车向柴油与纯电切换（替代 / 运营成本型传导）。High gas price + lower diesel → LNG-truck TCO edge over diesel/electric disappears → buyers rotate to diesel and battery-electric (substitution/operating-cost transmission).

市场Market

5 月燃气重卡 −55% MoM、动力结构急剧 re-mix；但重卡整体仍 +23.3% YoY，总需求未受动力切换拖垮。Gas-truck −55% MoM, a sharp powertrain re-mix; but total heavy-truck still +23.3% YoY, so aggregate demand isn't dragged down by the switch.

业务Business

车轴 / 连接件对动力路线中性、受重卡总量 +23% 护体相对绝缘；但纯电重卡占比上升抬高前轴荷要求（呼应 GB 1589 单胎单轴 7,000→8,000 kg），结构性利好高规格车轴。Axles/couplings are powertrain-agnostic and insulated by the +23% total; but rising BEV-truck share lifts front-axle load requirements (echoing GB 1589's single-tyre single-axle 7,000→8,000 kg) — a structural plus for high-spec axles.

净判断Net

本周最硬的中国信号——气价冲击重塑动力结构、总量仍增；配套件受总量护体、结构性利好高规格轴。The sharpest China signal this week — a gas-price shock reshaping the powertrain mix while volume grows; components are insulated by the total, with a structural tilt to high-spec axles.

前提Premise燃气重卡经济性盈亏线约 5.5 元/kg（行业口径）；LNG 零售价为财经媒体口径，NDRC 快报证实气市偏紧、柴油为官方数据。Gas-truck breakeven ~RMB 5.5/kg (industry basis); LNG retail is financial-media basis, NDRC report confirms a tight gas market, diesel is official.

证伪信号Falsifier车用气价回落至 5.5 元/kg 下方，或燃气重卡销量环比转正。Car-gas price falls below RMB 5.5/kg, or gas-truck sales turn positive MoM.

追踪锚点TrackNDRC 天然气运行月报、第一商用车网燃气重卡月度、7/3 柴油调价窗口。NDRC monthly gas report, CVWorld gas-truck monthly, the 3 Jul diesel-pricing window.

领先指标Leading置信高Confidence High

印尼央行加息 25bp 至 5.75%、菲律宾同步至 4.75%——东南亚区域货币紧缩Bank Indonesia hikes 25bp to 5.75%, Philippines to 4.75% — SE-Asia monetary tightening³

印尼央行（BI）6/17–18 RDG 会议加息 25bp 至 5.75%（存款便利 4.75%、贷款便利 6.50%），定性为稳汇率、控通胀（2.5±1%）的预防性紧缩。BI 同时披露银行业加权贷款利率 8.72%（5 月）——远高于政策利率，这才是车队实际承担的融资成本口径（非政策利率）。同月菲律宾央行（BSP）6/18 亦加息 25bp 至 4.75%（连续第二次），提示 2026 通胀 6.4%。Bank Indonesia raised its policy rate 25bp to 5.75% at the 17–18 Jun RDG meeting (deposit facility 4.75%, lending facility 6.50%), framed as pre-emptive tightening to stabilise the rupiah and hold inflation at 2.5±1%. BI also disclosed the banking-sector weighted lending rate at 8.72% (May) — well above the policy rate and the relevant caliber for fleet financing cost. The same week the Philippine BSP hiked 25bp to 4.75% (second consecutive), flagging 6.4% 2026 inflation.

关键数据（事实层）Key data (facts)BI-Rate 5.75%（+25bp）BI-Rate 5.75% (+25bp)银行贷款利率 8.72%（5 月，实际口径）Bank lending rate 8.72% (May, actual)菲 RRP 4.75%（+25bp）PH RRP 4.75% (+25bp)

事件Event

印尼 6 月加息 25bp 至 5.75%（实际银行贷款利率 8.72%）；菲律宾同步加息至 4.75%。Indonesia hiked 25bp to 5.75% in June (actual bank lending rate 8.72%); the Philippines also to 4.75%.

机制Mechanism

印尼重卡 / 自卸车多为融资购买，驱动购置成本的是实际贷款利率（≈8.7%+）而非政策利率 → 利率上行抬高月供、抑制非车队 / 中小买家换购。Indonesian HDV/tipper purchases are heavily financed; the driver of buying cost is the actual lending rate (~8.7%+), not the policy rate → rising rates lift instalments and dampen replacement by non-fleet/SME buyers.

市场Market

融资成本上行环境下，印尼及东南亚 HDV / 自卸车新购需求或承压，尤以 SME 端为甚；但印尼 5 月 CV 批发仍同比强劲（日系三强 +20~35%），紧缩尚未在需求端显现——属领先风险。In a rising-cost environment, Indonesia/SE-Asia HDV/tipper new-purchase demand may come under pressure, especially SMEs; yet Indonesia's May CV wholesales were still strong YoY (Japanese trio +20–35%) — tightening not yet visible in demand, a leading risk.

业务Business

若加息周期延续，配套件（车轴 / 连接件）需求增速或在下半年放缓；核心市场印尼需重点监测。If the hiking cycle persists, component (axle/coupling) demand growth may slow in H2; the core market Indonesia needs close monitoring.

净判断Net

区域货币紧缩是远东配套需求的领先逆风——尚未传导、需盯实际贷款利率与后续会议。Regional monetary tightening is a leading headwind to Far-East component demand — not yet transmitted; watch the actual lending rate and coming meetings.

前提Premise以实际贷款利率 8.72%（非政策利率 5.75%）作为传导口径；印尼购车高杠杆。Uses the actual lending rate 8.72% (not the 5.75% policy rate); high leverage in Indonesian purchases.

证伪信号FalsifierBI 转向降息，或印尼商用车批发在 6–7 月同比转弱（若转弱则已开始传导）。BI pivots to cuts, or Indonesia CV wholesales turn negative YoY in Jun–Jul (signalling transmission has begun).

追踪锚点TrackBI 7 月 RDG 决议、印尼银行业贷款利率月度、GAIKINDO 6 月 CV 批发。BI July RDG decision, Indonesia monthly bank lending rate, GAIKINDO June CV wholesales.

领先指标Leading置信中Confidence Mid

印尼 2026 镍矿 RKAB 配额封顶、6 月镍价 −14%——矿卡运量增速承压（货源型传导）Indonesia's 2026 nickel RKAB ceiling maxed, June nickel −14% — mining-truck haulage growth capped⁴

印尼 2026 年镍矿 RKAB 配额上限被压低至约 260–270 mn wmt（较 2025 年 379 mn wmt 降约 1/3，Argus 2 月）；6/24 Mysteel 快讯称年内已批 RKAB 配额触及 ESDM 上限。6 月 LME 镍价跌约 14% 至约 US$16,215/t（6/30），部分因印尼释放“或增配额”信号——方向仍有分歧。同期印尼 HBA 动力煤基准 6 月上行至约 US$124/t（+1.7%）。Indonesia's 2026 nickel-ore RKAB ceiling was cut to ~260–270 mn wmt (about a third below 2025's 379 mn wmt, per Argus in Feb); a 24 Jun Mysteel flash said approved RKAB quotas hit the ESDM ceiling for the year. June LME nickel fell ~14% to ~US$16,215/t (30 Jun), partly on Indonesian signals of possibly raising quotas — direction remains contested. Indonesia's HBA thermal-coal benchmark rose to ~US$124/t in June (+1.7%).

关键数据（事实层）Key data (facts)2026 镍 RKAB 上限 ~260–270（vs 2025 379 mn wmt）2026 nickel RKAB ~260–270 (vs 379 mn wmt 2025)6/24 批配触顶quotas maxed 24 JunLME 镍 −14% MoM（$16,215/t，6/30）LME nickel −14% MoM ($16,215/t)HBA 煤 ~$124/t（+1.7%）HBA coal ~$124/t (+1.7%)

事件Event

印尼 2026 镍 RKAB 上限较 2025 下调、6/24 已批配额触顶；6 月镍价 −14% MoM；煤 HBA 小幅上行。Indonesia's 2026 nickel RKAB ceiling is below 2025 and approvals maxed on 24 Jun; June nickel −14% MoM; HBA coal edged up.

机制Mechanism

RKAB 配额 = 镍矿开采量的天花板 → 直接约束镍产区（苏拉威西 / 哈马黑拉）矿石运输量 → 矿卡 / 宽体自卸 / 刚性矿卡的运量与新增需求（货源型传导）。RKAB quota is a ceiling on ore extraction → constrains ore-haulage volume in the nickel belts (Sulawesi/Halmahera) → the volume and incremental demand for mining trucks / wide-body and rigid dumpers (supply-source transmission).

市场Market

2026 镍矿运量增速较 2025 或受限 / 回落，矿卡需求增量承压；但印尼近期释放“或增配额”信号 + 煤价回升，方向未定，不宜断言某产区矿卡爆发或崩塌。2026 nickel-ore haulage growth may be limited/lower vs 2025, pressuring incremental mining-truck demand; but recent Indonesian signals of raising quotas plus firmer coal leave direction undecided — no claim of a boom or collapse at any named district.

业务Business

印尼矿卡 / 矿用车轴 / 自卸配套的需求增量与 RKAB 落地强绑定；镍 belt 是我方矿用产品线的关键观察区。Incremental demand for Indonesian mining trucks / mining axles / tipper fitment is tightly tied to how RKAB lands; the nickel belt is the key watch zone for our mining product line.

净判断Net

配额封顶压制矿卡运量增速、方向待定——中端间接，设为本季矿卡需求跟踪锚点。The quota ceiling caps mining-truck haulage growth, direction pending — mid-level indirect; set as this quarter's mining-truck tracking anchor.

前提Premise配额 → 开采 → 运量的货源型传导；具体产区（Weda Bay 12 vs 42 mn wmt）为 2 月背景而非 6 月事件，无 6 月产区级运输变动（待证实）。Quota → extraction → haulage (supply-source) transmission; the site-level figure (Weda Bay 12 vs 42 mn wmt) is Feb context, not a June event; no June site-level haulage change (unconfirmed).

证伪信号FalsifierESDM 最终 RKAB 决议大幅上调配额，或镍价企稳回升带动开采回暖。ESDM's final RKAB decision raises quotas materially, or nickel prices stabilise/recover and lift extraction.

追踪锚点TrackESDM 2026 RKAB 最终决议、LME 镍价、印尼镍矿石 HPM 月度。ESDM's final 2026 RKAB decision, LME nickel, Indonesia's monthly nickel-ore HPM.

02重卡 / 商用车市场Trucks & Commercial Vehicles2

中国 5 月重卡销量约 10.9 万辆（+23.3% YoY）：出口 + 新能源拉动、内需仍弱China May heavy-truck sales ~109k (+23.3% YoY): export- and NEV-led, domestic still weak⁵

据第一商用车网 / 中汽协口径，2026 年 5 月中国重卡销量约 10.9 万辆（+23.3% YoY，约 −6% MoM，连续三月破 10 万），1–5 月累计 54.4 万辆（+23.3%）。分车企：中国重汽 34,526 辆（+40.6% YoY，31.5% 份额、居首）、一汽解放 17,264 辆（+25.3%）、福田 16,032 辆（+37.0%）。5 月整车国内销量同比 −20.4%，增长主要来自出口与新能源；财政侧 6/26 第三批 625 亿元超长期特别国债消费品以旧换新资金下达，利好商用车更新报废。（境外无法直连 cvworld.cn，本周经国内转载媒体取数、已标注）Per CVWorld/CAAM, China's May 2026 heavy-truck sales were ~109k units (+23.3% YoY, ~−6% MoM, a 3rd straight month above 100k); Jan–May 544k (+23.3%). By maker: Sinotruk 34,526 (+40.6% YoY, 31.5% share, #1), FAW Jiefang 17,264 (+25.3%), Foton 16,032 (+37.0%). May auto domestic sales were −20.4% YoY, so growth came from exports and NEVs; on the fiscal side, a 3rd batch of RMB 62.5bn ultra-long special bonds for consumer trade-in was disbursed on 26 Jun, supporting CV scrap-and-replace. (cvworld.cn not reachable offshore; figures taken via China re-publishers this week, flagged.)

关键数据Key data重卡 5 月 ~10.9 万（+23.3% YoY，~−6% MoM）HDV May ~109k (+23.3% YoY, ~−6% MoM)1–5 月累计 54.4 万（+23.3%）Jan–May 544k (+23.3%)中国重汽 34,526（+40.6%，31.5% 份额）Sinotruk 34,526 (+40.6%, 31.5% share)解放 17,264（+25.3%）· 福田 16,032（+37.0%）FAW 17,264 (+25.3%) · Foton 16,032 (+37.0%)以旧换新第三批 625 亿国债（6/26）3rd trade-in bond RMB 62.5bn (26 Jun)

对业务的含义Implication

中国重卡上行周期延续（+23.3%），但由出口 + 新能源驱动、内需仍弱；总量向上直接支撑车轴 / 第五轮座 / 连接件的配套与更新（对动力路线中性），头部集中（重汽 31.5% 份额）提示配套应紧跟主流平台。国内换购弹性仍需 PMI / 货运领先回暖兑现（见宏观 [1]）。

China's HDV up-cycle continues (+23.3%) but is export/NEV-driven with domestic still weak; the volume uplift directly supports axle/fifth-wheel/coupling fitment and replacement (powertrain-agnostic), and concentration at the top (Sinotruk 31.5%) argues for tracking mainstream platforms. Domestic replacement elasticity still hinges on the PMI/freight lead materialising (see Macro [1]).

日野 + 扶桑合并为 Archion，正式接任丰田系 CJPT 成员Hino + Fuso, now Archion, formally replace both as CJPT member⁶

三菱扶桑（MFTBC）与日野汽车合并成立的东京上市控股公司 Archion（约 4/1 完成、戴姆勒卡车与丰田各持 25%、约 50% 公众持股）已在 CJPT（丰田牵头的商用车 CASE / 氢能合资）中同时替换 MFTBC 与日野原两个席位，整合进入运营层。此为结构性替换、非战略转向，暂无销量数字。Archion — the Tokyo-listed holding company formed by merging Mitsubishi Fuso (MFTBC) and Hino (completed ~1 Apr; Daimler Truck and Toyota hold 25% each, ~50% public float) — has replaced both MFTBC and Hino as the single CJPT member (Toyota-led CV CASE/hydrogen JV), consolidating them at the alliance level. It is a structural swap, not a strategic pivot; no sales figures.

关键数据Key data戴姆勒卡车 / 丰田各 25%Daimler Truck / Toyota 25% each合并 ~2026/4/1merger ~1 Apr 2026替换 MFTBC + 日野replaces MFTBC + Hino

对业务的含义Implication

日系两大商用车 OEM（命名实体 Hino / Fuso）整合落地、平台与采购或趋集中，对配套供应商意味着客户端集中度上升；印尼等东南亚市场的日系三强格局值得据此按月追踪采购变化。

Two major Japanese CV OEMs (named entities Hino/Fuso) have consolidated; platforms and sourcing may concentrate, raising customer concentration for suppliers — worth tracking monthly for procurement shifts in the Japanese-trio-dominated ASEAN markets like Indonesia.

03挂车 / 零部件与竞争对手Trailers, Components & Competitors2

戴姆勒卡车全球零部件中心（哈尔伯施塔特）全面投运Daimler Truck's Global Parts Center (Halberstadt) reaches full operation⁷

戴姆勒卡车位于德国哈尔伯施塔特的全球零部件中心（GPC）已于 ~6/22 全面投运，从原 Germersheim 站点完成迁移、面向全球独家供货。占地 26 万㎡，管理约 30 万个备件条目、约 2,600 家供应商，经 20 个区域物流中心服务 170 国约 3,000 家经销商（奔驰卡车售后）。Daimler Truck's Global Parts Center (GPC) in Halberstadt, Germany reached full operation (~22 Jun), completing the shift from Germersheim to supply worldwide exclusively. It spans 260,000 sq m, manages ~300,000 spare-parts line items from ~2,600 suppliers, and serves ~3,000 dealers in 170 countries via 20 regional logistics centres (Mercedes-Benz Trucks aftersales).

关键数据Key data30 万备件条目 / 2,600 供应商300k line items / 2,600 suppliers20 区域物流中心 → 170 国 3,000 经销商20 RLCs → 3,000 dealers / 170 ctry

对业务的含义Implication

OEM 售后备件网络规模化抬高零部件分销与售后配套的渠道壁垒；对独立车轴 / 连接件供应商，既是原厂件竞争压力、也提示售后渠道与物流能力是出海配套的关键门槛。

An OEM scaling its aftersales parts network raises channel barriers in component distribution/aftersales; for independent axle/coupling suppliers it is both OE-parts competitive pressure and a reminder that aftersales channel and logistics are key thresholds for export fitment.

延续：中国 GB 1589 修订拟将单胎单轴限值 7,000→8,000 kg，直接牵动车轴规格Continuity: China's GB 1589 revision proposes single-tyre single-axle 7,000→8,000 kg — directly reshapes axle spec⁸

中国 GB 1589（外廓尺寸 / 轴荷 / 质量限值）修订报批稿关键条款：单胎单轴最大轴荷拟由 7,000 kg 提高至 8,000 kg（针对新能源重卡前轴超载），并新增“流线型”牵引列车定义（车长至 18,100 mm、驾驶室 A 柱 ≥30°、气动减阻 10~30%）、45 英尺集装箱列车与牵引销距优化。据行业媒体，征求意见已于早前结束、终稿尚未发布，仍处报批 / 起草阶段（具体截止时点各源不一，以工信部公告为准）。Key clauses of China's GB 1589 (dimensions/axle-load/mass limits) draft revision: single-tyre single-axle max load proposed to rise from 7,000 kg to 8,000 kg (targeting NEV-truck front-axle overload), plus new 'streamlined' road-train definitions (length to 18,100 mm, cab A-pillar ≥30°, aero drag −10–30%), and 45-ft container trains with optimised kingpin spacing. Per trade media the comment period has closed and no final text is published — still in the drafting/approval phase (exact dates differ across sources; defer to MIIT's official notice).

关键数据Key data单胎单轴 7,000→8,000 kgsingle-tyre single-axle 7,000→8,000 kg流线型列车车长 ≤18,100 mmstreamlined train ≤18,100 mm45 英尺集装箱 + 牵引销距优化45-ft container + kingpin spacing终稿未发布（继续跟踪）final text pending (tracking)

对业务的含义Implication

单胎单轴 +1t 直接改写重卡（尤其新能源）前轴规格，叠加纯电重卡增重趋势，利好高承载 / 轻量化车轴与合规化连接件设计；流线型 / 45 英尺条款牵动牵引座与销距几何。是车轴 / 连接件产品线的结构性合规风向标，须盯工信部终稿。

A +1t single-tyre single-axle limit directly rewrites HDV (especially NEV) front-axle spec; with heavier BEV trucks it favours high-capacity/lightweight axles and compliance-driven coupling design, while the streamlined/45-ft clauses affect fifth-wheel and kingpin geometry. A structural compliance bellwether for the axle/coupling lines — watch MIIT's final text.

留白 · 纯零部件竞对　SAF-Holland、JOST、BPW、Hyva、Schmitz Cargobull、中集车辆本周无并购 / 订单 / 产能 / 财报级实质动态（SAF-Holland 仅有一笔董监事增持的治理性披露），按留白规则从略。Blank · Pure component competitors　SAF-Holland, JOST, BPW, Hyva, Schmitz Cargobull and CIMC Vehicles had no material developments (M&A/orders/capacity/financials) this week (SAF-Holland only a governance-level directors'-dealing disclosure), omitted per the blank rule.

04矿用车 & 矿业Mining Vehicles & Mining0

留白 · 本周无直接矿用车动态　本周候选中无矿用自卸 / 矿卡（Cat / 小松 / 徐工等）产品或部署级实质动态（Indo Mining 公众号本周未导入）。矿业需求侧的关键信号在宏观章：印尼镍 2026 RKAB 配额封顶、6 月镍价 −14%，压制镍产区矿卡运量增速（见宏观 [4]，已设为矿卡需求跟踪锚点）。延续：上期必和必拓 / 力拓 Cat 793 XE 纯电矿卡实测、秘鲁小松无人矿卡本周无新进展。Blank · No direct mining-vehicle development this week　No product- or deployment-level news on mining dumpers/haul trucks (Cat/Komatsu/XCMG, etc.) in this week's candidates (Indo Mining WeChat not imported). The key mining-demand signal sits in Macro: Indonesia's 2026 nickel RKAB ceiling maxed and June nickel −14% cap mining-truck haulage growth in the nickel belts (see Macro [4], set as the mining-truck tracking anchor). Continuity: no new development on last week's BHP/Rio Cat 793 XE battery-electric trial or Peru's Komatsu autonomous trucks.

05亚洲市场Asia Markets5

东亚 · 日 / 韩 / 台 / 港 / 蒙East Asia · JP / KR / TW / HK / MN

日本 5 月卡车注册 +6.5%（重卡端 −4.0%），韩国现代 / 起亚商用以轻卡为主Japan May truck registrations +6.5% (heavy end −4.0%); Korea's Hyundai/Kia CV skew light⁹

日本 JADA（登录车，>660cc，不含轻自动车）5 月货物车注册合计 26,589 辆（+6.5% YoY）：其中大型 / 普通货物车 9,470 辆（−4.0% YoY）、小型货物车 17,119 辆（+13.4% YoY）——重卡端实为小幅回落，增长来自轻卡。韩国现代 / 起亚（厂商口径、内需）见下表；台湾无 CV 细分公开、港 / 蒙留白。Japan (JADA, registered vehicles >660cc, excl. kei) May goods-vehicle registrations totalled 26,589 (+6.5% YoY): standard/large trucks 9,470 (−4.0% YoY) vs small trucks 17,119 (+13.4% YoY) — the heavy end softened, growth from light trucks. Korea's Hyundai/Kia (maker basis, domestic) below; Taiwan has no public CV split, HK/Mongolia blank.

日本 · JADA（5 月）Japan · JADA (May)卡车合计 26,589（+6.5% YoY）Trucks 26,589 (+6.5% YoY)大型 / 普通 9,470（−4.0% YoY）Std/large 9,470 (−4.0% YoY)小型 17,119（+13.4% YoY）Small 17,119 (+13.4% YoY)Isuzu 4,290 · Hino 2,525 · Fuso 2,602Isuzu 4,290 · Hino 2,525 · Fuso 2,602

韩国 · 现代 / 起亚（5 月内需）Korea · Hyundai/Kia (May domestic)现代中大型商用车 2,216（YoY 未披露）Hyundai mid/heavy CV 2,216 (YoY n/d)起亚商用 5,051（含 1 吨 Bongo/PV5 电动 van）Kia CV 5,051 (incl. 1t Bongo/PV5 van)两家内需总量 −23.1%/−0.6%（非 CV）domestic totals −23.1%/−0.6% (not CV)

台湾 / 香港 / 蒙古Taiwan / HK / Mongolia台湾 CV 细分未公开（TTVMA 仅 Excel）TW CV split not public (TTVMA Excel only)港 / 蒙留白HK/MN blank

对业务的含义Implication

东亚重卡端整体平淡——日本重卡（普通货物）5 月 −4.0%、韩国商用以 1 吨轻卡（Porter/Bongo）为主；成熟市场配套机会有限、以存量更新与售后为主。台 / 港 / 蒙 CV 数据缺失，按留白处理。

East Asia's heavy end is flat — Japan's standard trucks −4.0% in May, Korea's CV dominated by 1-tonne light trucks (Porter/Bongo); mature-market fitment is limited, mainly parc-replacement and aftersales. TW/HK/MN CV data missing — blank.

东南亚 · 印尼（核心）/ 新 / 马 / 泰 / 越 / 菲Southeast Asia · Indonesia (core) / SG / MY / TH / VN / PH

5 月 CV 冷热分化：印尼日系三强强劲、马来 −26%、菲总市场 −15.7%、泰出口生产 −36%May CV diverges: Indonesia's Japanese trio strong, Malaysia −26%, PH total −15.7%, Thai export output −36%¹⁰

核心市场印尼 5 月 CV 批发日系三强同比强劲（五十铃 2,570 +34.98%、扶桑 2,371 +20.54%、日野 2,056 +33.77%、FAW 273 +378.95%，GAIKINDO 口径）；但马来西亚 CV 3,890（−26% YoY）、菲律宾总市场 33,532（−15.7% YoY，CV 26,840）、泰国 5 月出口生产 −36.2%（中东战事重挫出口）。越南按 VAMA YTD CV 40,665（+22% YoY）延续暖势，且公共投资（截至 6/4 已拨 227.2 万亿越盾、达年度计划 22.4%，越南财政部）加速、南北高速推进，为自卸 / HDV 需求提供财政拉动。各国 6 月数据多未发布（月度节奏）。Core-market Indonesia's May CV wholesales were strong YoY for the Japanese trio (Isuzu 2,570 +34.98%, Fuso 2,371 +20.54%, Hino 2,056 +33.77%, FAW 273 +378.95%, GAIKINDO); but Malaysia CV 3,890 (−26% YoY), Philippines total 33,532 (−15.7% YoY, CV 26,840) and Thai May export production −36.2% (Middle-East war). Vietnam stays warm on VAMA YTD CV 40,665 (+22% YoY), with accelerating public investment (VND 227.2tn disbursed by 4 Jun, 22.4% of the annual plan, per MoF) and the North–South Expressway build-out providing a fiscal pull for tipper/HDV demand. Most June data not yet released.

印尼 · GAIKINDO（5 月批发）Indonesia · GAIKINDO (May WS)Isuzu 2,570（+34.98% YoY）Isuzu 2,570 (+34.98% YoY)Fuso 2,371（+20.54%）· Hino 2,056（+33.77%）Fuso 2,371 (+20.54%) · Hino 2,056 (+33.77%)FAW 273（+378.95%，低基数）FAW 273 (+378.95%, low base)

马来 · MAA（5 月）Malaysia · MAA (May)CV 3,890（−26% YoY）CV 3,890 (−26% YoY)总市场 TIV 61,250（−12% YoY，−15% MoM）TIV 61,250 (−12% YoY, −15% MoM)

越南 · VAMA（YTD）Vietnam · VAMA (YTD)YTD CV 40,665（+22% YoY）YTD CV 40,665 (+22% YoY)5 月总市场 24,136（+6.5% YoY，含 PV）May total 24,136 (+6.5% YoY, incl PV)公共投资 22.4% 计划（财政拉动）public inv. 22.4% of plan (fiscal pull)

泰国 · FTI（5 月）Thailand · FTI (May)总市场 57,765（+10.6% YoY）Total 57,765 (+10.6% YoY)出口生产 −36.2% YoY（中东战事）Export output −36.2% YoY (M-E war)CV 吨级细分待 FTI 公布CV tonnage split pending

菲律宾 · CAMPI+TMA（5 月）Philippines · CAMPI+TMA (May)CV 26,840（总市场 −15.7% YoY）CV 26,840 (total −15.7% YoY)YTD CV 133,961（−12% YoY）YTD CV 133,961 (−12% YoY)新加坡 CV 体量小、留白Singapore CV small — blank

对业务的含义Implication

东南亚以印尼为暖核（日系三强 +20~35% 直接利好配套件需求），越南在公共投资加速下亦具韧性；但马来、菲律宾走弱、泰国受中东战事拖累出口——需求集中在印尼与越南增量段。叠加宏观章印尼 / 菲加息的领先逆风，印尼需求虽强但应打上“融资紧缩尚未传导”的问号，按月盯 GAIKINDO 6 月批发。

SE-Asia's warm core is Indonesia (Japanese trio +20–35%, directly supportive of component demand), with Vietnam resilient on accelerating public investment; but Malaysia and the Philippines soften and Thailand's exports are hit by the Middle-East war — demand concentrates in Indonesia and Vietnam's growth band. With the Macro-chapter Indonesia/PH hikes as a leading headwind, Indonesia's strong demand should carry a 'tightening-not-yet-transmitted' caveat; track GAIKINDO June wholesales.

注：马来、越南、泰国的“总市场”为全口径（含乘用车），已与 CV 严格区分；泰国 CV 吨级细分、印尼 6 月 CV 批发本周未公开，待月度深更。Note: Malaysia/Vietnam/Thailand 'total' figures are all-market (incl. passenger cars), strictly separated from CV; Thai CV tonnage split and Indonesia June CV wholesales not yet public — pending monthly deep-update.

南亚 · 印度 ⭐ / 巴基斯坦South Asia · India ⭐ / Pakistan

印度塔塔 5 月 CV +17%、7/1 起 CV 提价 ≤2.5%、目标 FY28 市占 40%India's Tata CV +17% in May, CV price hike ≤2.5% from 1 Jul, targets 40% share by FY28¹¹

塔塔汽车 5 月 CV 批发（厂商发运）32,850 辆（+17% YoY，基数 28,147），其中重卡（HCV Trucks）7,877 辆（+11%）、国内 MH&ICV 13,679 辆（+10%）、出口 2,066 辆（−9%）。塔塔宣布自 7/1 起 CV 全系提价 ≤2.5%（钢 / 铝 / 橡胶等成本上行），并在 6/23 投资者日提出 FY28 国内 CV 市占达 40%（VAHAN 上牌口径，FY26 为 35.7%）。Volvo-Eicher（VECV）5 月 7,978 辆（+7.8% YoY，Eicher 重卡 1,620 +7.9%）。SIAM 月度不含 CV（仅季度，Q3 FY26 中重卡货车 94,912 辆）——不引月度 SIAM CV 数字。Tata Motors' May CV wholesales (maker dispatches) were 32,850 (+17% YoY, base 28,147): HCV trucks 7,877 (+11%), domestic MH&ICV 13,679 (+10%), exports 2,066 (−9%). Tata will raise CV prices by up to 2.5% from 1 Jul (steel/aluminium/rubber cost inflation) and at its 23 Jun investor day targeted 40% domestic CV share by FY28 (VAHAN registration basis, vs 35.7% in FY26). Volvo-Eicher (VECV) sold 7,978 in May (+7.8% YoY; Eicher heavy-duty trucks 1,620, +7.9%). SIAM publishes no monthly CV (quarterly only; Q3 FY26 M&HCV goods 94,912) — do not cite a monthly SIAM CV figure.

关键数据Key data塔塔 CV 32,850（+17% YoY）Tata CV 32,850 (+17% YoY)塔塔重卡 7,877（+11% YoY）Tata HCV 7,877 (+11% YoY)7/1 起 CV 提价 ≤2.5%CV price +≤2.5% from 1 Jul目标 FY28 CV 市占 40%（VAHAN，35.7%→）target 40% CV share FY28 (VAHAN, from 35.7%)VECV 7,978（+7.8% YoY）VECV 7,978 (+7.8% YoY)

对业务的含义Implication

印度中重卡需求稳健（塔塔 +17%、VECV +7.8%）+ 提价 + 龙头扩份额，是辖区内少见的“量价齐升”结构——重卡配套（车轴 / 制动 / 悬架）需求向好；塔塔借 IVECO 收购与份额目标扩张，是配套供应商的核心客户与竞争参照。SIAM 口径务必署名、只用季度数。

India's M&HCV demand is solid (Tata +17%, VECV +7.8%) plus price hikes and a leader expanding share — a rare 'volume-and-price-up' structure in the territory, positive for HDV fitment (axle/braking/suspension); Tata's expansion via the IVECO deal and share target makes it a core customer and benchmark. Attribute SIAM by name and use only its quarterly figures.

中亚 · 哈萨克 / 乌兹别克Central Asia · Kazakhstan / Uzbekistan

中亚靠中国品牌本地组装渗透：乌兹别克卡车产量 +30%、哈萨克 Sinotruk 合资落地Central Asia penetrated via China-brand local assembly: Uzbek truck output +30%, Kazakh Sinotruk JV¹²

乌兹别克 1–4 月卡车产量 1,867 辆（+30.4% YoY，基数 1,432，UzAuto Sanoat / UzDaily）；结构上由中国品牌合资渗透——UZ Truck and Bus Motors（乌 + Sinotruk + MAN 合资，中重卡 / 客车）、UzFoton（中型卡车 / 中巴）。哈萨克 Sinotruk 与地方合资 Saran Machinery（卡拉干达，规划年产 1 万辆含 HOWO；为在建产能、非达产）。中国对中亚重卡出口 FY2025 约 2.7 万辆（+51% YoY，据 CICC 测算，属二手、待海关总署核实）。哈萨克 AKAB 月度 CV 数据待核实。Uzbekistan's Jan–Apr truck output was 1,867 units (+30.4% YoY, base 1,432; UzAuto Sanoat/UzDaily), structurally driven by China-brand JVs — UZ Truck and Bus Motors (Uzbek + Sinotruk + MAN; medium/heavy trucks & buses) and UzFoton (medium trucks/minibuses). In Kazakhstan, a Sinotruk-backed JV, Saran Machinery (Karaganda), plans 10,000 CV/yr incl. HOWO (build-out, not yet achieved output). China HDV exports to Central Asia were ~27k in FY2025 (+51% YoY, per CICC — secondary, pending China-Customs verification). Kazakh AKAB monthly CV data unverified.

关键数据Key data乌兹别克卡车产量 1,867（+30.4% YoY，1–4 月）Uzbek truck output 1,867 (+30.4% YoY, Jan–Apr)哈萨克 Saran JV 规划 1 万辆/年（在建）Kazakh Saran JV 10k/yr (build-out)中国→中亚 HDV 出口 ~2.7 万（+51% FY25，待核实）China→C.Asia HDV ~27k (+51% FY25, unverified)

对业务的含义Implication

中亚重卡增量主要由中国品牌本地组装承接（Sinotruk / Foton），是中国 OEM 出海的落点、也意味着连接件 / 车轴的配套机会随中国主机厂本地化外溢；本地一手销量数据稀薄，宜用中国出口反推渗透、勿夸大绝对量。

Central Asia's HDV growth is largely captured by China-brand local assembly (Sinotruk/Foton) — a landing point for China-OEM expansion, implying coupling/axle fitment opportunity spilling over with Chinese OEM localisation; local primary sales data is thin, so infer penetration from China exports and avoid overstating absolute volumes.

西亚 / 中东 · 土耳其 / 海湾West Asia / Middle East · Turkey / Gulf

本地 CV 数据弱，靠中国出口反推 + 伊朗冲突陆运绕行的定性传导Weak local CV data — infer from China exports + qualitative Iran-conflict overland transmission¹³

土耳其 OSD 最新公开月度为 4 月、官网当周不可达；MarkLines 显示 5 月总市场销量 86,387 辆（−22.6% YoY），但无卡车 / 重 CV 细分（待核实）。海湾无 2026 年 Sinotruk / Shacman / FAW 具体成交可核实；中国对中东重卡出口 FY2025 约 4.5 万辆（+54% YoY，据 CICC，二手待海关核实）。定性传导：2026 年 6 月伊朗冲突推升霍尔木兹海峡绕行，主要班轮经沙特 / 伊拉克 / 约旦 / 阿联酋开辟陆运通道，对区域重卡 / 牵引车队属需求支撑（属推断、中国品牌关联不作断言）。Turkey's OSD latest public monthly is April and its site was unreachable this week; MarkLines shows May total-market sales of 86,387 (−22.6% YoY), but no truck/heavy-CV split (unverified). No verifiable 2026 Sinotruk/Shacman/FAW Gulf deal; China HDV exports to the Middle East were ~45k in FY2025 (+54% YoY, per CICC — secondary, pending Customs). Qualitative transmission: the June 2026 Iran conflict spurred Strait-of-Hormuz bypass, with major carriers opening overland corridors via Saudi/Iraq/Jordan/UAE — demand-supportive for regional heavy-truck/tractor fleets (an inference; no assertion on China-brand linkage).

关键数据Key data土耳其 5 月总市场 86,387（−22.6% YoY）Turkey May total 86,387 (−22.6% YoY)卡车 / 重 CV 细分待核实（OSD 官网不可达）truck/heavy-CV split unverified (OSD site down)中国→中东 HDV 出口 ~4.5 万（+54% FY25，待核实）China→ME HDV ~45k (+54% FY25, unverified)

对业务的含义Implication

西亚 / 海湾本地一手 CV 数据薄弱，宜用中国出口反推中国品牌渗透、勿凑数；伊朗冲突的陆运绕行对区域牵引 / 重卡是间接需求支撑，但落点与中国品牌份额均属推断，标待证实、按月观察。

West Asia/Gulf local primary CV data is thin — infer China-brand penetration from Chinese exports and don't pad; the Iran-conflict overland bypass is an indirect demand support for regional tractors/HDVs, but the landing point and China-brand share are inferences — flagged unconfirmed, watch monthly.

06中国 OEM 出海China OEM Overseas Expansion2

中国 5 月商用车出口 12 万辆（+44% YoY）、卡车出口 10.6 万辆（+49% YoY）China May CV exports 120k (+44% YoY); truck exports 106k (+49% YoY)¹⁴

据中汽协，5 月中国商用车出口 12.0 万辆（+44% YoY、+13.4% MoM），其中卡车出口 10.6 万辆（+49% YoY、+15.8% MoM）、新能源商用车出口 1.2 万辆（+48.1% YoY）；1–5 月累计 CV 出口 53.2 万辆（+29.5% YoY）。出口是本周中国商用车链条最确定的高增长引擎（内需 5 月 −20.4%）。6 月中汽协数据预计 ~7/10–11 发布。Per CAAM, China's May CV exports were 120k units (+44% YoY, +13.4% MoM), incl. 106k truck exports (+49% YoY, +15.8% MoM) and 12k NEV-CV exports (+48.1% YoY); Jan–May CV exports reached 532k (+29.5% YoY). Exports are the most certain high-growth engine in China's CV chain this week (domestic −20.4% in May). CAAM June data expected ~10–11 Jul.

关键数据Key dataCV 出口 12.0 万（+44% YoY，+13.4% MoM）CV exports 120k (+44% YoY, +13.4% MoM)卡车出口 10.6 万（+49% YoY）Truck exports 106k (+49% YoY)NEV CV 出口 1.2 万（+48.1% YoY）NEV-CV exports 12k (+48.1% YoY)YTD CV 出口 53.2 万（+29.5% YoY）YTD CV exports 532k (+29.5% YoY)

对业务的含义Implication

中国商用车出口高增（卡车 +49%）是配套件出海的核心拉动，直接放大牵引销 / 第五轮座 / 车轴 / 悬架的海外配套与售后需求；与中亚本地组装（见亚洲市场·中亚）共同构成中国主机厂出海的两条路径——整车直出 + 本地 KD 组装。

China's high CV export growth (trucks +49%) is the core pull for component exports, directly amplifying overseas fitment and aftersales demand for kingpins/fifth wheels/axles/suspension; with Central-Asia local assembly (see Asia Markets · Central Asia) it forms the two paths of Chinese OEM expansion — CBU exports and local KD assembly.

福田 eView Connect 纯电物流车泰国上市并本地生产（轻型，简讯）Foton eView Connect e-van launches in Thailand with local production (light CV, brief)¹⁵

BAIC 福田泰国合资 CP FOTON ~6/12 在曼谷推出 eView Connect 纯电城配物流车（属轻型商用车 / 电动 van），搭 CATL 三代液冷电池（50.23 / 66.67 kWh），已本地建立生产、首批交付 5 家本地企业。无销量 / 本地化率披露。按收录纪律，轻型仅作一句了解。BAIC Foton's Thai JV, CP FOTON, launched the eView Connect battery-electric urban-logistics vehicle (a light CV / electric van) in Bangkok ~12 Jun, with CATL 3rd-gen liquid-cooled batteries (50.23/66.67 kWh), local production established and a first batch to 5 local firms. No volume/localisation-rate disclosed. Per inclusion discipline, light CV noted in one line only.

关键数据Key data轻型电动 van（降权）light electric van (downweighted)泰国本地生产local production in Thailand

对业务的含义Implication

中国主机厂在泰国以“本地生产 + 电池巨头（CATL）配套”切入城配电动车，属轻型、对重卡车轴 / 连接件业务无直接配套关系，仅作中国 OEM 出海路径的了解性记录。

A Chinese OEM entering Thai urban-logistics EVs via local production + CATL batteries — light-duty, with no direct axle/coupling fitment relevance to the HDV business; noted only as background on the China-OEM-overseas path.

来源Sources

1国家统计局（NBS）· 6 月 PMI（财新经二手财媒）NBS · June PMI (Caixin via secondary media) stats.gov.cn 财新(新浪转述)2026-06-30

2发改委《5 月天然气运行快报》+ 新浪财经（燃气重卡经济性）NDRC May natural-gas report + Sina Finance (gas-truck economics) NDRC 新浪财经2026-06-29

3印度尼西亚央行（Bank Indonesia）· BI-Rate 新闻稿Bank Indonesia · BI-Rate news release bi.go.id2026-06-18

4印尼镍 RKAB / 镍价：Mysteel 快讯 + Argus + Trading EconomicsIndonesia nickel RKAB / price: Mysteel + Argus + Trading Economics Mysteel(6/24)Argus LME 镍价2026-06-24

5第一商用车网 / 中汽协 · 5 月重卡（经汽车之家转载）+ 新华（以旧换新国债）CVWorld / CAAM · May HDV (via Autohome) + Xinhua (trade-in bonds) 第一商用车网/autohome 新华(以旧换新) （cvworld.cn 境外封锁，取转载）(cvworld.cn geo-blocked; via re-publisher)2026-06

6Just Auto + 戴姆勒卡车（Archion / CJPT）Just Auto + Daimler Truck (Archion / CJPT) Just Auto Daimler Truck2026-06-22

7戴姆勒卡车 · 全球零部件中心（哈尔伯施塔特）Daimler Truck · Global Parts Center (Halberstadt) daimlertruck.com2026-06-22

8运输人网 / 卓众商用车 · GB 1589 修订报批稿解读Yunshuren / bjcv · GB 1589 draft revision analysis yunshuren.com2026-06

9东亚月度：日本 JADA · 韩国现代 / 起亚（内需商用车）East Asia monthly: Japan JADA · Korea Hyundai/Kia (domestic CV) JADA(5月PDF)现代起亚2026-06-01

10东南亚月度：GAIKINDO(印尼语) · MAA/Paultan · VAMA/VietnamPlus · FTI/新华 · CAMPI/MarkLinesSE Asia monthly: GAIKINDO(ID) · MAA/Paultan · VAMA/VietnamPlus · FTI/Xinhua · CAMPI/MarkLines 印尼·GAIKINDO 马来·MAA/JustAuto 马来·Paultan 越南·VAMA/JustAuto 越南·公共投资(MoF/VietnamPlus)泰国·FTI/Nation 泰国·新华菲·CAMPI/MarkLines 菲·JustAuto （部分需订阅 / 印尼语）(some paywalled / Indonesian)2026-06

11塔塔汽车 5 月 CV（Autocar Pro）· 提价 · 40% 目标 · VECV · SIAMTata May CV (Autocar Pro) · price hike · 40% target · VECV · SIAM 塔塔销量提价 40%目标 VECV SIAM2026-06

12乌兹别克（UzAuto/UzDaily）+ 哈萨克 Sinotruk 合资（chinatrucks）Uzbekistan (UzAuto/UzDaily) + Kazakh Sinotruk JV (chinatrucks) UzDaily chinatrucks.org2026-06

13土耳其 5 月总市场（MarkLines）+ 伊朗冲突陆运通道（Credendo）Turkey May total market (MarkLines) + Iran-conflict overland corridors (Credendo) MarkLines(TR)Credendo2026-06

14中国汽车工业协会（CAAM）· 5 月出口（Gasgoo 报道）CAAM · May exports (via Gasgoo) gasgoo.com2026-06-11

15BAIC 福田 eView Connect 泰国上市（Charged EVs / Foton）BAIC Foton eView Connect Thailand launch (Charged EVs / Foton) Charged EVs Foton2026-06-12

中国 6 月制造业 PMI 升至 50.3，连续三月扩张、新订单与出口订单重回扩张China's June mfg PMI rises to 50.3 — 3rd month of expansion, new & export orders back above 501

中国车用 LNG 价涨约 50% → 燃气重卡 5 月销量环比 −55%，动力结构剧烈 re-mix（大宗 → 动力路线传导）China car-gas (LNG) up ~50% → May gas-truck sales −55% MoM, a violent powertrain re-mix (commodity → drivetrain)2

印尼央行加息 25bp 至 5.75%、菲律宾同步至 4.75%——东南亚区域货币紧缩Bank Indonesia hikes 25bp to 5.75%, Philippines to 4.75% — SE-Asia monetary tightening3

印尼 2026 镍矿 RKAB 配额封顶、6 月镍价 −14%——矿卡运量增速承压（货源型传导）Indonesia's 2026 nickel RKAB ceiling maxed, June nickel −14% — mining-truck haulage growth capped4

中国 5 月重卡销量约 10.9 万辆（+23.3% YoY）：出口 + 新能源拉动、内需仍弱China May heavy-truck sales ~109k (+23.3% YoY): export- and NEV-led, domestic still weak5

日野 + 扶桑合并为 Archion，正式接任丰田系 CJPT 成员Hino + Fuso, now Archion, formally replace both as CJPT member6

戴姆勒卡车全球零部件中心（哈尔伯施塔特）全面投运Daimler Truck's Global Parts Center (Halberstadt) reaches full operation7

延续：中国 GB 1589 修订拟将单胎单轴限值 7,000→8,000 kg，直接牵动车轴规格Continuity: China's GB 1589 revision proposes single-tyre single-axle 7,000→8,000 kg — directly reshapes axle spec8

日本 5 月卡车注册 +6.5%（重卡端 −4.0%），韩国现代 / 起亚商用以轻卡为主Japan May truck registrations +6.5% (heavy end −4.0%); Korea's Hyundai/Kia CV skew light9

5 月 CV 冷热分化：印尼日系三强强劲、马来 −26%、菲总市场 −15.7%、泰出口生产 −36%May CV diverges: Indonesia's Japanese trio strong, Malaysia −26%, PH total −15.7%, Thai export output −36%10

印度塔塔 5 月 CV +17%、7/1 起 CV 提价 ≤2.5%、目标 FY28 市占 40%India's Tata CV +17% in May, CV price hike ≤2.5% from 1 Jul, targets 40% share by FY2811

中亚靠中国品牌本地组装渗透：乌兹别克卡车产量 +30%、哈萨克 Sinotruk 合资落地Central Asia penetrated via China-brand local assembly: Uzbek truck output +30%, Kazakh Sinotruk JV12

本地 CV 数据弱，靠中国出口反推 + 伊朗冲突陆运绕行的定性传导Weak local CV data — infer from China exports + qualitative Iran-conflict overland transmission13

中国 5 月商用车出口 12 万辆（+44% YoY）、卡车出口 10.6 万辆（+49% YoY）China May CV exports 120k (+44% YoY); truck exports 106k (+49% YoY)14

福田 eView Connect 纯电物流车泰国上市并本地生产（轻型，简讯）Foton eView Connect e-van launches in Thailand with local production (light CV, brief)15

中国 6 月制造业 PMI 升至 50.3，连续三月扩张、新订单与出口订单重回扩张China's June mfg PMI rises to 50.3 — 3rd month of expansion, new & export orders back above 50¹

中国车用 LNG 价涨约 50% → 燃气重卡 5 月销量环比 −55%，动力结构剧烈 re-mix（大宗 → 动力路线传导）China car-gas (LNG) up ~50% → May gas-truck sales −55% MoM, a violent powertrain re-mix (commodity → drivetrain)²

印尼央行加息 25bp 至 5.75%、菲律宾同步至 4.75%——东南亚区域货币紧缩Bank Indonesia hikes 25bp to 5.75%, Philippines to 4.75% — SE-Asia monetary tightening³

印尼 2026 镍矿 RKAB 配额封顶、6 月镍价 −14%——矿卡运量增速承压（货源型传导）Indonesia's 2026 nickel RKAB ceiling maxed, June nickel −14% — mining-truck haulage growth capped⁴

中国 5 月重卡销量约 10.9 万辆（+23.3% YoY）：出口 + 新能源拉动、内需仍弱China May heavy-truck sales ~109k (+23.3% YoY): export- and NEV-led, domestic still weak⁵

日野 + 扶桑合并为 Archion，正式接任丰田系 CJPT 成员Hino + Fuso, now Archion, formally replace both as CJPT member⁶

戴姆勒卡车全球零部件中心（哈尔伯施塔特）全面投运Daimler Truck's Global Parts Center (Halberstadt) reaches full operation⁷

延续：中国 GB 1589 修订拟将单胎单轴限值 7,000→8,000 kg，直接牵动车轴规格Continuity: China's GB 1589 revision proposes single-tyre single-axle 7,000→8,000 kg — directly reshapes axle spec⁸

日本 5 月卡车注册 +6.5%（重卡端 −4.0%），韩国现代 / 起亚商用以轻卡为主Japan May truck registrations +6.5% (heavy end −4.0%); Korea's Hyundai/Kia CV skew light⁹

5 月 CV 冷热分化：印尼日系三强强劲、马来 −26%、菲总市场 −15.7%、泰出口生产 −36%May CV diverges: Indonesia's Japanese trio strong, Malaysia −26%, PH total −15.7%, Thai export output −36%¹⁰

印度塔塔 5 月 CV +17%、7/1 起 CV 提价 ≤2.5%、目标 FY28 市占 40%India's Tata CV +17% in May, CV price hike ≤2.5% from 1 Jul, targets 40% share by FY28¹¹

中亚靠中国品牌本地组装渗透：乌兹别克卡车产量 +30%、哈萨克 Sinotruk 合资落地Central Asia penetrated via China-brand local assembly: Uzbek truck output +30%, Kazakh Sinotruk JV¹²

本地 CV 数据弱，靠中国出口反推 + 伊朗冲突陆运绕行的定性传导Weak local CV data — infer from China exports + qualitative Iran-conflict overland transmission¹³

中国 5 月商用车出口 12 万辆（+44% YoY）、卡车出口 10.6 万辆（+49% YoY）China May CV exports 120k (+44% YoY); truck exports 106k (+49% YoY)¹⁴

福田 eView Connect 纯电物流车泰国上市并本地生产（轻型，简讯）Foton eView Connect e-van launches in Thailand with local production (light CV, brief)¹⁵