行业动态周报Weekly Industry Brief

重型商用车 · 挂车 · 矿用车 情报周报车轴 / 第五轮座 / 连接件 视角 · 亚洲 Heavy CV · Trailers · Mining Vehicles IntelligenceAxle / fifth-wheel / coupling lens · Asia

2026 · W34
2026-08-10 → 08-16
本周主线Bottom Line

中国重卡的量与结构本周分开走：7 月批发 8.40 万辆同比转负（−1.1%），终端新能源渗透率却升到 47.25% 的年内新高，货车出口 +66.9% YoY——内需在淡季缩量，电动化和出口两条结构线都在加速。成本端给的缓解有限：8/14 柴油每吨只降 220 元，是机构预估的六成。海外需求印度、越南领跑（FADA 印度 CV 零售 +24% YoY、越南柴油二连降且 Citi 把增速预测提到约 8%）；印尼的政策周——RAPBN 2027、电摩生态 Molinas、央行行长提名——方向全部转正，但 RKAB 批复仍无官方文件，矿卡增量还是预期、不是订单。给董事会：国内传统车轴的可服务盘在批发与终端两个口径同时收缩，配套路线图继续向电驱桥与出海随行配套倾斜；首要监测项是印尼 8/18–19 议息与 RKAB 批复文件、中国 8/20 LPR 与 8/17 发布的 1–7 月固投。

China's heavy-truck volume and structure went separate ways this week: July wholesales turned negative at 84.0k units (−1.1% YoY) while terminal NEV penetration hit a year-high 47.25% and truck exports rose 66.9% YoY — domestic demand shrank into the trough month as both structural lines, electrification and exports, kept accelerating. Cost relief was modest: the Aug 14 window cut diesel by only RMB 220/t, about 60% of what analysts projected. Overseas, India and Vietnam lead demand (India's CV retail +24% YoY per FADA; Vietnam cut diesel twice in a row and Citi lifted its growth forecast to ~8%); Indonesia's policy week — the 2027 budget draft, the Molinas e-motorcycle ecosystem, the BI governor nomination — all point positive, but RKAB approvals still lack an official document, so incremental mining-truck demand remains an expectation, not an order book. For the board: the serviceable market for conventional axles in China is contracting on both the wholesale and terminal measures — keep tilting the component roadmap toward e-axles and export-following content; the top watch items are Indonesia's Aug 18–19 BI meeting and the RKAB approval document, plus China's Aug 20 LPR and the Jan–Jul FAI released Aug 17.

宏观Macro

中国 8/14 窗口汽、柴油每吨下调 230/220 元（机构曾预估柴油 −375 元），同日央行数据显示前 7 个月对实体贷款同比少增 2.14 万亿元。印尼 8/14 国情咨文把 2027 年增长目标定在 6%、宣布 2027 年初启动矿产与大宗商品交易所；越南柴油 8/13 二连降至 27,230 盾/升。

China's Aug 14 window cut gasoline/diesel by RMB 230/220 per tonne (analysts had projected diesel −375), and same-day PBoC data showed loans to the real economy up RMB 2.14tn less YoY over seven months. Indonesia's Aug 14 address set a 6% growth target for 2027 and announced a minerals-and-commodities exchange for early 2027; Vietnam cut diesel a second straight time to VND 27,230/l on Aug 13.

信号Signal

7 月新能源重卡终端 2.65 万辆（+59% YoY，交强险口径），渗透率 47.25% 创年内新高；货车出口 10.7 万辆（+66.9% YoY）。Reuters：开战后四个月中国重型电动卡车出口 16,823 辆、同比翻倍以上，一半流向南亚与东南亚——电驱桥替代在国内终端与出口两端同时推进。

July terminal NEV heavy trucks reached 26.5k units (+59% YoY, insurance-registration basis) at a year-high 47.25% penetration; truck exports hit 107k units (+66.9% YoY). Reuters: in the four months since the war began, China's heavy e-truck exports more than doubled YoY to 16,823 units, half bound for South and Southeast Asia — e-axle substitution is advancing at home and abroad at once.

需求Demand

中国 7 月重卡批发 8.40 万辆（−1.1% YoY）结束 3 月以来的连增，终端实销 5.61 万辆（−13% YoY）。海外一头热：印度 FADA 7 月 CV 零售 99,666 辆（+24% YoY）创同月纪录，ARCHION 东南亚销量 +51%（印尼政府大额订单），越南 VAMA 卡车前 7 月 +13%；印尼矿卡增量继续等 RKAB 批复。

China's July heavy-truck wholesales of 84.0k (−1.1% YoY) ended the run of gains since March, with terminal sales at 56.1k (−13% YoY). Overseas runs hot: India's July CV retail hit a same-month record 99,666 units (+24% YoY per FADA), ARCHION's Southeast Asian sales rose 51% on a large Indonesian government order, and Vietnam's VAMA truck sales are +13% YTD; Indonesia's incremental mining-truck demand still waits on RKAB approvals.

结论Verdict

国内量进入淡季负区间、出口与电动化接棒——配套重心继续向电驱桥与出海随行配套倾斜，海外基本盘按国别盯中国电卡进场节奏。首要监测项：印尼 8/18–19 议息与 RKAB 批复文件、HBA 下期定价；中国 8/20 LPR 与 8/17 统计局 1–7 月固投；泰国 240 亿铢换购提案与 8/26 BoT 议息。

Domestic volume is in seasonal negative territory while exports and electrification take over — keep shifting component weight toward e-axles and export-following content, and track Chinese e-truck entry country by country across the overseas base. Top watch items: Indonesia's Aug 18–19 BI meeting, the RKAB approval document and the next HBA fixing; China's Aug 20 LPR and the Jan–Jul FAI released Aug 17; Thailand's THB 24bn replacement proposal and the Aug 26 BoT meeting.

本周要点Key Takeaways
01宏观与政策环境Macro & Policy3
已传导Transmitted置信 高Confidence High

中国：8/14 窗口柴油每吨下调 220 元、只有预估的六成——同日央行数据：前 7 个月对实体贷款同比少增 2.14 万亿元China: the Aug 14 window cut diesel by RMB 220/t, about 60% of the projected cut — same-day PBoC data shows loans to the real economy up RMB 2.14tn less YoY over seven months1

国家发展改革委 8/14 通知：8 月 14 日 24 时起国内汽、柴油零售限价每吨分别下调 230 元和 220 元，折合 0 号柴油每升约 −0.19 元；依据是 7/31 调价以来国际原油先快速回落、后震荡运行。上期机构测算柴油约下调 375 元/吨，实际降幅约为其六成——窗口末段油价反弹收窄了跌幅。同日中国人民银行发布 7 月金融数据：7 月末社会融资规模存量 463.27 万亿元（+7.4% YoY）；前 7 个月社融增量累计 22.25 万亿元、同比少 1.74 万亿元，其中对实体经济发放的人民币贷款增加 10.17 万亿元、同比少增 2.14 万亿元。背景：7 月制造业 PMI 49.2%（7/31 发布），回落至收缩区间。The NDRC notice of Aug 14 cut retail price caps for gasoline and diesel by RMB 230/t and 220/t from midnight, roughly −RMB 0.19 per litre for 0# diesel, citing crude's fast fall then sideways trading since the Jul 31 adjustment. Analysts had projected a diesel cut of ~RMB 375/t, so the actual cut delivered about 60% of that — a late-window crude rebound narrowed the decline. The same day the PBoC released July financial data: outstanding aggregate financing stood at RMB 463.27tn at end-July (+7.4% YoY); the seven-month increment totaled RMB 22.25tn, RMB 1.74tn less than a year earlier, within which yuan loans to the real economy grew RMB 10.17tn — RMB 2.14tn less YoY. Backdrop: July manufacturing PMI printed 49.2 (released Jul 31), back in contraction.

关键数据（事实层）Key data (facts)柴油 −220 元/吨（预估 −375）Diesel −RMB 220/t (est. −375)前 7 月对实体贷款少增 2.14 万亿7M real-economy loans −RMB 2.14tn YoY7 月 PMI 49.2 · 收缩区July PMI 49.2 · contraction
事件Event

发改委按期下调成品油限价但幅度弱于预估；央行同日公布的信贷数据延续同比少增。The NDRC cut fuel caps on schedule but by less than projected; PBoC data released the same day extended the YoY shortfall in credit.

机制Mechanism

柴油占重卡 TCO 约 30–40%，限价下调直接改善车队运营现金流；重卡以融资购置为主，信贷投放决定终端购车能力。Diesel is roughly 30–40% of heavy-truck TCO, so a cap cut feeds straight into fleet cash flow; heavy trucks are mostly financed, so credit supply sets end-buyer capacity.

市场Market

柴油成本压力边际缓解但弱于预期；信贷少增叠加 PMI 收缩，淡季后的国内终端需求修复或偏慢——7 月重卡批发已转负（见 02 章）。Diesel-cost pressure eases at the margin but less than expected; with credit shrinking YoY and PMI in contraction, the post-trough domestic demand recovery may be slow — July wholesales already turned negative (see section 02).

业务Business

柴油车换购修复力度有限，传统车轴/牵引座出货难以靠成本端拉起；油价回落幅度不足以削弱电动化经济性，电驱桥替代主线不变。The diesel-replacement recovery has limited fuel-cost support, so conventional axle and fifth-wheel volumes get little lift from this channel; the cut is too small to dent EV economics, leaving the e-axle substitution trend intact.

净判断Net

成本端给的缓解不足以扭转需求面——下半年国内量的关键在信贷与置换资金，不在油价。Cost-side relief is too small to turn demand — H2 domestic volume hinges on credit and scrappage funds, not fuel prices.

前提Premise国际油价不再大幅反弹；置换资金投放节奏不变。Crude does not rebound sharply and scrappage-fund deployment stays on pace.
证伪信号Falsifier8/20 LPR 下调或置换资金加码，则需求判断上修；反向：油价回升令下轮窗口转涨，TCO 缓解逆转。An LPR cut on Aug 20 or bigger scrappage funding would lift the demand call; conversely, a crude rebound flips the next window to a hike and reverses the TCO relief.
追踪锚点Track8/20 LPR 报价；下轮调价窗口（约 8/28）；8/31 8 月 PMI；8/17 统计局 1–7 月固投（截稿后发布，下期纳入）。The Aug 20 LPR fixing; the next pricing window (~Aug 28); August PMI on Aug 31; NBS Jan–Jul FAI released Aug 17 (after this issue's cutoff, covered next week).
领先指标Leading置信 中Confidence Mid

印尼：RAPBN 2027 把增长目标定在 6%、2027 年初启动矿产交易所——电摩生态 Molinas 押注镍下游化，RKAB 批复仍无官方文件Indonesia: the 2027 budget draft targets 6% growth with a minerals exchange from early 2027 — the Molinas e-motorcycle ecosystem bets on nickel downstreaming, while RKAB approvals still lack an official document2

一周三件事：① 8/14 总统 Prabowo 在国会发表国情咨文并提交 RAPBN 2027 预算草案——增长目标 6%、赤字 2.40% GDP（2026 年 2.68%）、总支出 4,097.2 万亿卢比（2026 年 3,842.7 万亿），并宣布 2027 年初启动矿产与大宗商品交易所；演讲同时宣示为「100 万辆国产电动车」提供购置激励（媒体口径为 50 万电摩＋50 万电车），财政部实施细则（PMK）截至 8/16 未发布、商用车不在覆盖范围。② 8/13 在西爪哇启动国家电摩计划 Molinas：产量目标 200 万辆、国企 Len Industri 任整合方、主权基金 Danantara 参与，明确以镍下游化（电池国产）为基础。③ 8/10 总统正式向国会提名代理行长 Destry Damayanti 为唯一行长候选人，当日卢比升 0.75% 至 17,750/美元；议息会 8/18–19。供给侧：2026 镍矿 RKAB 配额本周仍无官方批复文件（基础批复约 2.5–2.7 亿湿吨 vs 2025 年 3.79 亿）；市场消息称 Weda Bay 获追加 2,500 万湿吨（Mysteel 调研，无官方文件、待证实）。HBA 煤价下期因 8/15 逢周六、8/17 独立日顺延未发布（上期 124.44 美元/吨，−5.6% MoM）。Three moves in one week: (1) On Aug 14 President Prabowo delivered the state address and submitted the RAPBN 2027 draft — 6% growth target, a 2.40%-of-GDP deficit (from 2.68% in 2026), total spending of IDR 4,097.2tn (from 3,842.7tn), and a minerals-and-commodities exchange to launch in early 2027; the speech also pledged purchase incentives for 'one million domestically built EVs' (reported as 500k e-motorcycles plus 500k cars), with the finance-ministry implementing rules (PMK) unpublished as of Aug 16 and commercial vehicles not covered. (2) On Aug 13 he launched the national e-motorcycle program Molinas in West Java: a 2-million-unit output target, state-owned Len Industri as integrator and sovereign fund Danantara participating, explicitly built on nickel downstreaming (localized batteries). (3) On Aug 10 the president formally nominated acting governor Destry Damayanti as the sole candidate for BI governor; the rupiah firmed 0.75% to 17,750/USD that day, with the rate meeting set for Aug 18–19. On the supply side, 2026 nickel RKAB quotas still have no official approval document (base approvals ~250–270m wet tonnes vs 379m in 2025); market reports say Weda Bay received an extra 25m wet tonnes (Mysteel channel checks — no official document, unverified). The next HBA coal fixing was delayed past Aug 15 (a Saturday) and the Aug 17 Independence Day holiday (prior period: $124.44/t, −5.6% MoM).

关键数据（事实层）Key data (facts)RAPBN 2027 · 增长目标 6%RAPBN 2027 · 6% growth targetRKAB 批复 · 仍无官方文件RKAB approvals · no official documentBI 行长提名 · 卢比 17,750BI nomination · rupiah 17,750
事件Event

财政案、电摩生态与央行行长提名同周落地；镍配额批复继续悬置，仅有无官方文件的市场消息。The budget draft, the e-motorcycle ecosystem and the BI nomination all landed in one week; nickel-quota approvals stay suspended, with only undocumented market reports.

机制Mechanism

财政扩张与下游化制度建设（矿产交易所、电池国产）支撑 2027 年矿业与基建 capex 预期；但矿区 tonne-km 与矿卡需求的直接开关仍是 RKAB 配额总量。Fiscal expansion and downstreaming institutions (the minerals exchange, localized batteries) underpin 2027 mining and infrastructure capex expectations; but the direct switch for mine tonne-km and truck demand remains the RKAB quota total.

市场Market

矿卡增量短期仍卡在批复文件；若 Weda Bay 追加配额获官方确认并扩展至更多矿区，H2 苏拉威西/北马鲁古矿区运输量有望回升。中期政策面对 2027 年转正。Near-term incremental mining-truck demand stays gated on the approval document; if Weda Bay's extra quota is officially confirmed and extended to more sites, H2 haulage in Sulawesi and North Maluku could recover. The medium-term policy backdrop turns positive for 2027.

业务Business

矿用车轴与自卸/宽体配套在印尼的能见度仍取决于配额文件；EV 激励不含商用车、直接拉动有限，其价值在于镍下游化叙事强化了配额放量的政策动机。Visibility for mining-axle and tipper/wide-body content in Indonesia still hinges on the quota document; the EV incentives exclude commercial vehicles and pull little directly — their value is that the nickel-downstreaming narrative strengthens the policy motive to release quotas.

净判断Net

政策方向全部转正、开关还没拧——批复文件落地之前，矿卡增量仍是预期，不是订单。Every policy arrow points positive but the switch is not yet flipped — until the approval document lands, incremental mining-truck demand is an expectation, not orders.

前提PremiseRAPBN 大体按草案过会；RKAB 批复在三季度内落地。The budget passes broadly as drafted and RKAB approvals land within Q3.
证伪信号Falsifier批复总量显著低于市场传闻区间或再度推迟；电摩补贴细则缩水（总统与财长已公开分歧），显示财政纪律压过产业刺激。Approved totals come in well below the rumored range or slip again; a scaled-back e-motorcycle subsidy (the president and finance minister have disagreed publicly) would show fiscal discipline overriding industrial stimulus.
追踪锚点TrackESDM 正式批复文件与 APNI 会员统计；8/18–19 BI 议息；HBA 下期定价；财政部 PMK 细则。The formal ESDM approval document and APNI member tallies; the Aug 18–19 BI meeting; the next HBA fixing; the finance ministry's PMK rules.
已传导Transmitted置信 高Confidence High

越南：柴油 8/13 二连降至 27,230 盾/升——Citi 把 2026 年增速预测上调至约 8%，公共投资放款加速决议在途Vietnam: diesel cut a second straight time to VND 27,230/l on Aug 13 — Citi lifts its 2026 growth forecast to ~8% as a disbursement-acceleration resolution is drafted3

8/13 15:00 起越南全线下调油价：柴油（DO 0.05S-II）每升降 310 盾至 27,230 盾，E10 RON95 降 210 盾至 22,110 盾——继 8/6 三连涨后首降的第二次连续下调，官方理由是美伊和谈进展与需求预测带动国际油价回落（WTI 约 81 美元）。增长面：Citi Research 在 8/11–12 河内/胡志明市研讨会上把越南 2026 全年 GDP 增速预测上调至约 8%（Q2 实际 +8.5% YoY、Q1 +7.9%），理由包括对美出口韧性与公共基建投资维持高位（机构预测口径）。财政面：政府 8/3 例会宣布将出台公共投资放款加速决议，10 月起按第 1129 号决定对放款绩效打分（上期锚点：前 7 个月放款完成计划 41.9%）。越美 301 案本周无新进展（11/29 裁定继续跟踪）。From 15:00 on Aug 13 Vietnam cut fuel prices across the board: diesel (DO 0.05S-II) fell VND 310 to 27,230/l and E10 RON95 fell VND 210 to 22,110/l — the second consecutive cut after the Aug 6 reversal of three straight hikes, officially attributed to US-Iran talks progress and demand forecasts pulling crude lower (WTI ~$81). On growth, Citi Research raised its 2026 full-year GDP forecast to about 8% at client seminars in Hanoi and HCMC on Aug 11–12 (Q2 actual +8.5% YoY, Q1 +7.9%), citing resilient US-bound exports and sustained public-infrastructure investment (an analyst forecast). On fiscal execution, the Aug 3 cabinet meeting announced a forthcoming resolution to accelerate public-investment disbursement, with performance scoring under Decision 1129 from October (last week's anchor: seven-month disbursement at 41.9% of plan). No new developments in the US Section 301 cases this week (the Nov 29 ruling stays on watch).

关键数据（事实层）Key data (facts)柴油 −310 盾 → 27,230 盾/升Diesel −VND 310 → 27,230/lCiti 2026 预测 ~8%（Q2 +8.5% YoY）Citi 2026 forecast ~8% (Q2 +8.5% YoY)放款加速决议 · 10 月起绩效打分Disbursement push · scoring from Oct
事件Event

柴油连续第二次下调；机构上调全年增长预测；放款加速决议进入起草程序。Diesel fell for a second straight window, a major bank lifted the growth forecast, and a disbursement-acceleration resolution entered drafting.

机制Mechanism

柴油占重卡 TCO 约 30–40%，连续下调直接改善车队现金流与购车意愿；放款绩效考核针对的正是掣肘基建开工的执行环节。Diesel is ~30–40% of heavy-truck TCO, so consecutive cuts feed fleet cash flow and purchase appetite directly; disbursement scoring targets precisely the execution bottleneck that delays construction starts.

市场Market

越南工程车与干线重卡需求下半年有望延续强势，成本端观望或进一步松动；VAMA 卡车前 7 月 +13% 与之同向（见 05 章）。Construction and trunk-line truck demand looks set to stay firm into H2 with cost-side hesitation easing further; VAMA truck sales at +13% YTD point the same way (see section 05).

业务Business

挂车/牵引座/车轴在越南的前装与售后机会扩大；同时中国电动卡车出口东南亚近三倍增长（见 06 章），吃下增量的未必是日系存量供应链——机会与替代同源。OE and aftermarket opportunities for trailer, fifth-wheel and axle content in Vietnam expand; meanwhile Chinese e-truck exports to Southeast Asia have nearly tripled (see section 06), so the incumbents' Japanese supply chain may not capture the increment — the opportunity and the substitution share one root.

净判断Net

越南仍是辖区需求最强的市场，成本端也开始帮忙——配套布局要同时押增量和押进场的中国整车。Vietnam remains the region's strongest demand market and costs are now helping — component positioning must back both the increment and the incoming Chinese trucks.

前提Premise国际油价不大幅反弹；放款节奏下半年不减速。Crude does not rebound sharply and disbursement does not decelerate in H2.
证伪信号Falsifier8 月放款进度环比回落；11/29 裁定对越负面推高出口合规成本；下轮调价窗口转涨。August disbursement slows MoM, the Nov 29 ruling goes against Vietnam and raises export-compliance costs, or the next pricing window turns to a hike.
追踪锚点Track9 月初 GSO 8 个月公报（放款/货运/IIP）；8 月下旬调价窗口；11/29 裁定节点。GSO's eight-month release in early September (disbursement/freight/IIP); the late-August pricing window; the Nov 29 ruling.
02重卡 / 商用车市场Trucks & Commercial Vehicles2

中汽协 7 月：重卡批发 8.40 万辆（−1.1% YoY、−28% MoM）结束连增——牵引车 4.24 万辆同步转负，出口扛住商用车总盘CAAM July: heavy-truck wholesales at 84.0k units (−1.1% YoY, −28% MoM) end the growth run — tractors turn negative in step at 42.4k, with exports holding up the CV total4

中汽协 8/12 发布（企业批发口径，含出口）：7 月重型货车销量 8.4 万辆，环比 −28%、同比 −1.1%，结束自 3 月开始的连增；1–7 月重卡 74.5 万辆（+19.4% YoY），为近五年同期最高——上期「7 月整体批发待发布」的锚点就此落地。细分：牵引车 7 月 4.24 万辆（−1% YoY、−30% MoM），1–7 月 38.75 万辆（+24% YoY）；重汽以 3.02 万辆蝉联月榜第一、月度份额 35.9%，福田 1.2 万辆升至第二。商用车总盘 7 月 31.7 万辆（+3.5% YoY），其中国内 19.6 万辆（−15% YoY）、出口 12.1 万辆（+59.6% YoY，见 06 章）——增长全部来自海外。天然气商用车 7 月 0.8 万辆（−48.5% YoY）。第一商用车网归因：重卡新车 7/14 起强制安装 AEBS，法规切换前的提前上牌透支了需求，叠加高温淡季。CAAM's Aug 12 release (OEM wholesale basis, exports included): July heavy-truck sales reached 84.0k units, −28% MoM and −1.1% YoY, ending the run of gains since March; Jan–Jul totaled 745k (+19.4% YoY), the strongest same-period tally in five years — closing last week's 'July wholesale pending' anchor. Within it, tractors sold 42.4k in July (−1% YoY, −30% MoM) and 387.5k for Jan–Jul (+24% YoY); Sinotruk kept the monthly crown at 30.2k units and a 35.9% share, with Foton up to second at 12k. The commercial-vehicle total was 317k in July (+3.5% YoY), split into 196k domestic (−15% YoY) and 121k exported (+59.6% YoY, see section 06) — all of the growth came from abroad. Natural-gas CVs sold 8k (−48.5% YoY). cvworld attributes the drop to the AEBS mandate effective Jul 14 — registrations pulled forward ahead of the rule change — plus the hot-season trough.

关键数据Key data重卡 8.40 万辆 · −1.1% YoYHDT 84.0k · −1.1% YoY1–7 月 74.5 万辆 · +19.4% YoYJan–Jul 745k · +19.4% YoY商用车国内 −15% · 出口 +59.6%CV domestic −15% · exports +59.6%
对业务的含义Implication

总量转负、结构分化：国内需求负增长，出口与电动是仅剩的两台引擎。传统车轴与牵引座配套量的下行压力在国内端已经显形——下半年量的判断挂在置换资金投放与出口持续性两个变量上。

Volume turned negative while the structure split: domestic demand is shrinking and exports plus electrification are the only two engines left. Downward pressure on conventional axle and fifth-wheel volumes is now visible on the domestic side — the H2 volume call hangs on scrappage-fund deployment and export durability.

7 月新能源重卡终端 2.65 万辆（+59% YoY、−29% MoM）——渗透率 47.25% 创年内新高，燃气重卡终端预计同比下降约四成July terminal NEV heavy trucks at 26.5k units (+59% YoY, −29% MoM) — penetration hits a year-high 47.25% while LNG trucks are estimated down ~40% YoY at retail5

第一商用车网交强险终端口径（不含出口与军车；与上期引用的营运证口径 2.86 万辆不同源、勿混）：7 月新能源重卡实销 2.65 万辆，同比 +59%（6 月为 +108%，增幅收窄）、环比 −29%；同月重卡终端总量仅 5.61 万辆（−13% YoY、−33% MoM）——新能源渗透率升至 47.25%，创年内新高（上月 44.75%、去年同期 25.89%）。1–7 月新能源重卡累计 16.65 万辆（+74% YoY），累计渗透率 35.29%（2025 全年 28.89%）。企业端：徐工 5,342 辆夺月冠（年内第 4 冠），重汽 4,142 辆（+164% YoY）、三一 3,273 辆分列二三。驱动：国四/国五柴油车淘汰更新、AEBS 新规（7/14 起）前的抢上牌、油气价差令燃气车失去经济性——燃气重卡 7 月终端预计同比下降接近 40%、渗透率降至 13–14%（同源分析预估口径），北方车用 LNG 加注价 5.5–5.8 元/公斤，价差仍不足以翻盘。On cvworld's insurance-registration terminal basis (excluding exports and military; a different series from last week's operating-certificate 28.6k — do not mix): July NEV heavy trucks sold 26.5k units at retail, +59% YoY (down from June's +108%) and −29% MoM; total terminal heavy-truck sales were just 56.1k (−13% YoY, −33% MoM) — lifting NEV penetration to a year-high 47.25% (44.75% in June, 25.89% a year earlier). Jan–Jul NEV heavy trucks totaled 166.5k (+74% YoY) at 35.29% cumulative penetration (28.89% for full-year 2025). By maker: XCMG took the monthly crown at 5,342 units (its fourth this year), ahead of Sinotruk at 4,142 (+164% YoY) and Sany at 3,273. Drivers: scrappage of China-IV/V diesel trucks, registrations pulled ahead of the AEBS mandate (from Jul 14), and an oil-gas spread that strips LNG trucks of their economics — July terminal LNG-truck sales are estimated down nearly 40% YoY with penetration at 13–14% (same source, estimate basis), as northern LNG pump prices of RMB 5.5–5.8/kg leave the spread too thin to turn.

关键数据Key data渗透率 47.25% · 年内新高Penetration 47.25% · year high1–7 月 16.65 万辆 · +74% YoYJan–Jul 166.5k · +74% YoY燃气终端 ~−40% YoY（预估）LNG retail ~−40% YoY (est.)
直接关切Directly material对业务的含义Implication

终端每卖出两台重卡就有近一台是电动——电驱桥对传统驱动桥的替代在终端口径已经到 47%，比批发口径显示的更急。燃气车持续失血、柴油盘缩量，车轴产品组合的切换窗口以月度渗透率为准绳，不能再按年度节奏排。

Nearly one in two heavy trucks sold at retail is now electric — e-axle substitution of conventional drive axles has reached 47% on the terminal measure, steeper than wholesale data suggests. With LNG trucks bleeding out and the diesel base shrinking, the axle portfolio switch must be paced against monthly penetration, not an annual calendar.

03挂车 / 零部件与竞争对手Trailers, Components & Competitors1

Wielton 补齐 EVO 系列第三款厢式半挂：基础版自重 6,100 公斤、内高 2,725 毫米装 33 个欧标托盘——轻量化成为欧洲挂车 OEM 走量产品的默认配置Wielton completes its EVO range with a closed-box semi-trailer: 6,100 kg tare in base spec, 2,725 mm internal height, 33 Euro pallets — lightweighting becomes the default spec for volume European trailer OEMs6

欧洲头部挂车 OEM Wielton 发布 EVO 系列第三款产品——厢式（closed-box）半挂车，此前为帘式半挂与 BDF 挂车，6 月已在华沙附近的 4Poland 展会首发。基础版自重 6,100 公斤、内部高度 2,725 毫米、单次可装 33 个欧标托盘；厂商称减重通过多轮原型迭代达成，直接目标是降低客户 TCO——运输成本上行期把「每公斤自重」折成载重收益卖。EVO 系列的思路是标准化构造＋轻量化材料＋功能化设计的组合打包。另：北欧最大商用车展 Elmia Lastbil 8/19–22 在延雪平开展（JOST 的摄像辅助第五轮与储气挂车轴参展，上期已报），展后按实物发布跟进。Wielton, a lead European trailer OEM, has completed its EVO range with a third product — a closed-box semi-trailer following the curtainsider and BDF trailer, first shown at the 4Poland fair near Warsaw in June. The base version weighs 6,100 kg tare with a 2,725 mm internal height and carries 33 Euro pallets; the maker says the weight came down through successive prototyping rounds, aimed squarely at customer TCO — selling every kilogram of tare as payload revenue in a period of rising transport costs. The EVO formula bundles standardized construction, lightweight materials and function-led design. Separately, Elmia Lastbil, northern Europe's largest CV fair, runs Aug 19–22 in Jönköping (JOST's camera-assisted fifth wheel and air-storing trailer axle exhibit there, covered last week); follow-up after the show.

关键数据Key data自重 6,100 kg · 33 托盘Tare 6,100 kg · 33 palletsEVO 系列第三款 · 厢式Third EVO model · closed-box
直接关切Directly material对业务的含义Implication

轻量化已从高端选配变成欧洲挂车 OEM 走量产品的默认配置——挂车轴与悬架的减重指标会跟着变成采购硬门槛。我们车轴品类对标欧洲竞品时，自重每 50 公斤的差距都会被客户直接折成载重收益；上期 JOST 的储气轴梁（−50 kg）与本条是同一条价值曲线。

Lightweighting has moved from premium option to default spec on European trailer OEMs' volume products — trailer-axle and suspension weight targets will harden into procurement gates accordingly. When benchmarking our axle lines against European rivals, every 50 kg of tare difference gets converted straight into customer payload revenue; JOST's air-storing axle beam (−50 kg, last week) sits on the same value curve.

04矿用车 & 矿业Mining Vehicles & Mining2

三一自动驾驶矿卡首批发运南美：SKT110Ei 纯电车队 8/12 沈阳发车——中国自动驾驶矿卡首个南美项目，交付含调度系统与运维SANY ships its first autonomous mining-truck fleet to South America: electric SKT110Ei units rolled out of Shenyang on Aug 12 — the first Chinese autonomous mining-truck project in South America, delivered with dispatch systems and O&M7

8/12，三一重装沈阳产业园为首批 SKT110Ei 纯电自动驾驶矿卡举行发运仪式，车辆即将发往海外——三一称这是其自动驾驶矿卡首个落地南美的项目，也是中国自动驾驶矿卡技术首次进入拉美市场。客户痛点是矿区专业司机长期短缺与人力成本上升，经多家全球厂商评估后选择三一的整体方案；交付范围覆盖自动驾驶矿卡、配套调度系统与运维服务（厂商口径）。On Aug 12 SANY Heavy Equipment held a dispatch ceremony at its Shenyang industrial park for the first batch of SKT110Ei pure-electric autonomous mining trucks, soon to ship overseas — SANY calls it its first autonomous mining-truck project to land in South America and the first entry of Chinese autonomous mining-truck technology into Latin America. The customer, facing chronic shortages of professional mine drivers and rising labour costs, selected SANY's total solution after evaluating multiple global vendors; the delivered scope covers the trucks, supporting dispatch systems and operations-and-maintenance services (manufacturer account).

关键数据Key dataSKT110Ei 纯电 · 自动驾驶SKT110Ei electric · autonomous首个南美自动驾驶矿卡项目First autonomous project in S. America
直接关切Directly material对业务的含义Implication

矿卡出海从卖整车升级为卖「车＋调度＋运维」整包——自动驾驶抬高单车配套价值，但也把配套选择权更深地锁进整车厂体系。矿用车轴随三一体系出海的通道在拓宽，独立售后件的空间同步收窄；继同力巴西混动车队（上期）之后，中国矿卡在南美连下两城。

Mining-truck exports have moved from selling vehicles to selling a truck-plus-dispatch-plus-O&M package — autonomy raises per-vehicle content value but locks component sourcing deeper inside the OEM's system. The channel for mining axles traveling with SANY widens while the independent aftermarket narrows; after Tonly's hybrid fleet in Brazil (last week), Chinese mining trucks have taken two South American beachheads in as many weeks.

东风联手中集向和田火烧云铅锌矿投运 500 台燃气子母车：首批 100 台 8/13 交付——海拔 5,000 米、单程近千公里的重载干线Dongfeng with CIMC puts 500 LNG truck-and-trailer combinations into the Huoshaoyun lead-zinc haul: the first 100 delivered Aug 13 — a heavy-load trunk route at 5,000 m altitude, nearly 1,000 km one way8

厂商通稿口径（软文剥离）：8/13 东风商用车与新疆巴蜀和源供应链在和田举行 500 台车辆签约暨首批 100 台东风天龙燃气子母车交付仪式，车辆注入巴蜀物流与和田新昆仑物流的合资运营平台，承接火烧云铅锌矿运输——该矿为亚洲资源量最大的铅锌矿，位于海拔超 5,000 米的昆仑山区，运输线路单程近千公里、长坡密集、冬季极寒。订单缘起 4 月火烧云运输项目招标与三方战略合作；中集车辆为矿区工况对挂车做了结构强度、耐磨材质与整车稳定性专项升级。通稿称合资平台后续仍有增购计划（厂商口径）。From the manufacturer release (promotional copy stripped): on Aug 13 Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles and Xinjiang Bashu Heyuan Supply Chain held a 500-unit signing and delivered the first 100 Dongfeng Tianlong LNG truck-and-trailer combinations in Hotan, to be operated by the joint platform of Bashu Logistics and Hotan Xinkunlun Logistics on the Huoshaoyun lead-zinc haul — Asia's largest lead-zinc resource, sitting above 5,000 m in the Kunlun range, with a nearly 1,000 km one-way route, long grades and extreme winter cold. The order stems from the April haulage tender and a tripartite strategic agreement; CIMC Vehicles upgraded the trailers specifically for mine duty — structural strength, wear-resistant materials and stability. The release says the platform plans further purchases (manufacturer account).

关键数据Key data500 台签约 · 首批 100 台交付500 signed · first 100 delivered海拔 5,000 米+ · 单程近千公里5,000 m+ altitude · ~1,000 km one way
直接关切Directly material对业务的含义Implication

疆内矿区干线把「牵引车＋专用挂车」打包成运力方案卖，单次招标撬动 500 台量级——挂车与车轴配套跟着矿山大客户协议走，而不是散户渠道。高海拔、重载、长下坡工况对轴、悬架与制动件是高损耗场景，火烧云这类干线的售后件周转值得单独建档跟踪。

Xinjiang's mine trunk routes now sell tractor-plus-dedicated-trailer capacity as a package, with a single tender moving 500 units — trailer and axle content follows large mine-fleet contracts rather than retail channels. The high-altitude, heavy-load, long-descent duty cycle is a high-wear scenario for axles, suspensions and brakes; aftermarket turnover on corridors like Huoshaoyun deserves its own tracking file.

05亚洲市场Asia Markets6
东亚East Asia

ARCHION 首份季报 8/12 发布：Q1 销量约 6.0 万辆（+14% YoY）、东南亚 +51% 靠印尼政府大额订单——中东销量 −82%ARCHION's first quarterly report lands Aug 12: Q1 sales ~60k units (+14% YoY) with Southeast Asia +51% on a large Indonesian government order — Middle East volumes −82%9

日野-三菱扶桑整合体 ARCHION 8/12 发布 FY2026 Q1（4–6 月，IFRS）：销量约 6.0 万辆（+14% YoY，与上年备考合并数比较）、营收 5,979 亿日元（+14%）；剔除一次性负商誉后营业利润 290 亿日元（+32%，销售回报率 4.9%）；含负商誉的归母净利 2,515 亿日元，全年归母净利预测从 700 亿上调至 3,032 亿日元（负商誉暂计口径）。区域结构是重点：东南亚销量 +51% 至约 2.2 万辆，主因印尼政府大额订单；日本零售 +20%；中东 −82% 至约 1,000 辆（地缘扰动）。市场背景：日本 7 月卡车上牌 64,481 辆（+1.4% YoY，JAMA 数据经 just-auto），其中 4 吨级以上普通卡车 6,281 辆（−0.5% YoY，JADA 数据经日刊自动车新闻）——本土大盘平，增长在海外。上期锚点「ARCHION Q1 财报待 8 月中旬」就此落地。ARCHION, the Hino–Fuso combination, reported its FY2026 Q1 (Apr–Jun, IFRS) on Aug 12: sales of ~60k units (+14% YoY versus prior-year pro-forma consolidation) and revenue of JPY 597.9bn (+14%); operating profit excluding the one-off bargain-purchase gain was JPY 29.0bn (+32%, 4.9% return on sales); net profit including that gain was JPY 251.5bn, and full-year net guidance was raised from JPY 70bn to JPY 303.2bn (gain provisionally booked). The regional mix is the story: Southeast Asian sales rose 51% to ~22k units on a large Indonesian government order; Japanese retail rose 20%; the Middle East fell 82% to ~1,000 units on geopolitical disruption. Market backdrop: Japan's July truck registrations reached 64,481 (+1.4% YoY, JAMA data via just-auto), within which regular trucks of 4t-plus payload printed 6,281 (−0.5% YoY, JADA data via Nikkan Jidosha Shimbun) — the home market is flat and the growth sits overseas. Last week's 'ARCHION Q1 due mid-August' anchor closes here.

关键数据Key dataQ1 约 6.0 万辆 · +14% YoYQ1 ~60k units · +14% YoY东南亚 +51% · 印尼政府订单SE Asia +51% · Indonesian gov't order中东 −82% YoYMiddle East −82% YoY
对业务的含义Implication

整合后的日系双品牌把增长押在东南亚，印尼政府一单撑起 +51%——在我们核心区域，日系存量供应链的防守力仍强；其中东敞口暴露的地缘脆弱性，恰是中国电卡出口（见 06 章）正在填的空档。

The merged Japanese duo is betting growth on Southeast Asia, with one Indonesian government order carrying the +51% — in our core region, the incumbent Japanese supply chain still defends well; the geopolitical fragility exposed in its Middle East book is exactly the gap Chinese e-truck exports (section 06) are filling.

东南亚Southeast Asia

越南 VAMA：卡车前 7 个月 +13% YoY，但 7 月单月会员商用车 5,821 辆（−9% YoY）——量在涨、单月转负值得盯Vietnam VAMA: trucks +13% YoY over seven months, but members' July CV sales of 5,821 units fell 9% YoY — the trend is up, the single month bears watching10

VAMA 8 月中旬报告（会员批发口径，不含 VinFast、现代等单独报数厂商）：1–7 月会员商用车累计 44,313 辆（+6% YoY），其中卡车 +13%、巴士 −35%；7 月单月会员商用车 5,821 辆（−9% YoY）。含部分进口商的全市场 7 月总销量 33,707 辆（+6% YoY、+8% MoM），其中商用车 7,888 辆。VAMA's mid-August report (member wholesale basis, excluding VinFast, Hyundai and other separately reporting makers): members' Jan–Jul CV sales totaled 44,313 units (+6% YoY), with trucks +13% and buses −35%; members' July CV sales fell 9% YoY to 5,821 units. Including some importers, the whole market sold 33,707 vehicles in July (+6% YoY, +8% MoM), of which 7,888 were commercial vehicles.

关键数据Key data1–7 月卡车 +13% YoY7M trucks +13% YoY7 月会员 CV 5,821 辆 · −9% YoYJuly member CV 5,821 · −9% YoY
对业务的含义Implication

宏观三线齐升（放款/货运/产出）与卡车累计 +13% 同向，但 7 月单月转负出现在柴油高点月份——是高成本下的观望，还是份额流向 VAMA 口径外的中国 CBU，协会数据看不见；8 月 VAMA 数据与中国海关分国别出口是分辨这两种解释的锚点。

The macro trio (disbursement, freight, output) and trucks at +13% YTD point the same way, but the single-month dip landed in a peak-diesel month — whether that is cost-driven hesitation or share leaking to Chinese CBUs outside VAMA's scope, association data cannot tell; August VAMA figures and China customs' country-level exports are the anchors to separate the two readings.

印尼 GAIKINDO：7 月总批发 81,115 辆（+33.3% YoY）——1–7 月分类别报告首次给出卡车累计 45,965 辆，但信息图数据自相矛盾、标待核实Indonesia GAIKINDO: July total wholesales at 81,115 units (+33.3% YoY) — the Jan–Jul category report shows trucks at 45,965 units, but the infographic's internals conflict; flagged unverified11

GAIKINDO 官网 8/15 文章（总市场口径，含乘用车）：7 月批发 81,115 辆（+33.3% YoY、+4.5% MoM）、零售 77,412 辆（+12.1% YoY）；1–7 月批发累计 517,742 辆（媒体口径 +18.3% YoY）。8/16 发布的 1–7 月分类别批发信息图给出卡车（Truck 类，不含皮卡）45,965 辆、占 8.0%——但该图内部数字互相矛盾（图内总量 576,645 与官网文章的 517,742 对不上），此数标「待核实」，GVW>24t 重卡细分依旧未公开。需求旁证：ARCHION 季报披露的印尼政府大额订单（见东亚条）是本周印尼卡车需求最硬的信号。Per GAIKINDO's Aug 15 article (whole-market basis, passenger cars included): July wholesales reached 81,115 units (+33.3% YoY, +4.5% MoM) and retail 77,412 (+12.1% YoY); Jan–Jul wholesales totaled 517,742 (+18.3% YoY per media tallies). The Jan–Jul category infographic published Aug 16 shows the Truck category (pickups excluded) at 45,965 units, an 8.0% share — but the graphic's internals conflict (its own total of 576,645 does not reconcile with the website's 517,742), so the figure is flagged unverified, and the GVW>24t heavy split remains unpublished. Demand corroboration: the large Indonesian government order disclosed in ARCHION's quarterly report (see East Asia) is this week's hardest signal on Indonesian truck demand.

关键数据Key data7 月批发 81,115 辆 · +33.3% YoYJuly wholesales 81,115 · +33.3% YoY卡车 1–7 月 45,965 辆（待核实）Trucks Jan–Jul 45,965 (unverified)
对业务的含义Implication

印尼总盘三成增长的方向可信，卡车细分要等可靠数据——协会公开口径连续两期对不上账，GVW>24t 重卡渗透仍只能以中国海关分国别出口反推。政策端的 RAPBN 2027 与 RKAB 见 01 章。

The direction of Indonesia's ~30% total-market growth is credible; the truck detail must wait for reliable data — the association's public figures have failed to reconcile for two periods running, so GVW>24t heavy-truck penetration can still only be back-derived from China customs' country-level exports. For the policy side (RAPBN 2027, RKAB) see section 01.

南亚South Asia

印度：FADA 7 月 CV 零售 99,666 辆（+24.04% YoY）创同月纪录——HCV 28,070 辆（+16.72%），Tata 批发 CV +37%、出口 +128%India: July CV retail hits a same-month record 99,666 units (+24.04% YoY) per FADA — HCVs at 28,070 (+16.72%), while Tata's CV wholesales rose 37% with exports up 128%12

经销商协会 FADA 零售（上牌）口径：7 月商用车零售 99,666 辆（+24.04% YoY，上年同期 80,348 辆），为历史最佳 7 月；其中 HCV 28,070 辆（+16.72% YoY）、MCV 9,925 辆（+25.00%）、LCV 61,634 辆（+27.65%），农村市场 +29.37% 领跑；Tata 零售 34,733 辆、份额 34.85% 居首。厂商端（批发口径，Tata 公告）：7 月 CV 总销量 39,641 辆（+37% YoY），其中国内 33,876 辆（+28%）、国际 5,765 辆（+128% YoY，上年同期 2,524 辆低基数）；国内 M&HCV（卡车＋巴士）15,435 辆（+25%），其中 HCV 卡车 8,973 辆（+33% YoY）。SIAM 月度头条口径不含商用车细分（CV 为季度发布），行业批发数留待其季报。On dealer-association FADA's retail (registration) basis: July CV retail reached 99,666 units (+24.04% YoY versus 80,348 a year earlier), the best July on record; HCVs printed 28,070 (+16.72% YoY), MCVs 9,925 (+25.00%) and LCVs 61,634 (+27.65%), with rural markets leading at +29.37%; Tata topped retail at 34,733 units and a 34.85% share. On the OEM side (wholesale basis, Tata's filing): July CV sales totaled 39,641 (+37% YoY), split into 33,876 domestic (+28%) and 5,765 international (+128% YoY off a low 2,524 base); domestic M&HCVs (trucks plus buses) reached 15,435 (+25%), within which HCV trucks printed 8,973 (+33% YoY). SIAM's monthly headline release excludes the CV split (published quarterly), so the industry wholesale number waits on its quarterly report.

关键数据Key dataCV 零售 99,666 辆 · +24% YoYCV retail 99,666 · +24% YoYHCV 28,070 辆 · +16.7% YoYHCVs 28,070 · +16.7% YoYTata HCV 卡车 +33% YoYTata HCV trucks +33% YoY
对业务的含义Implication

印度重卡上行周期已经传导到零售上牌端，大吨位与农村运力领涨——对以重卡为主的配套组合，印度是本周全亚洲最强的增长信号。上期 Hyva 收敛印度液压核心件、竞争密度上升的判断，正落在这条需求曲线上。

India's heavy-truck upcycle has reached the retail registration level, led by heavy tonnage and rural haulage — for a heavy-truck-weighted component portfolio, India is this week's strongest growth signal in all of Asia. Last week's read on Hyva concentrating its Indian hydraulics business into rising competitive density lands exactly on this demand curve.

中亚Central Asia

乌兹别克 Muruntau 金矿持续扩充钻机队：2025 年钻探量 370 万米——采矿前端工序先行，运输环节需求或随之上移（推断）Uzbekistan's Muruntau keeps expanding its drill-rig fleet: 3.7 million metres drilled in 2025 — the front end of the mining cycle moves first, haulage demand may follow (inference)13

全球最大金矿之一、乌兹别克 Muruntau 的运营方 NMMC 宣布持续引入现代化大功率钻机（含 Epiroc 纯电 Pit Viper 231E 旋转牙轮钻机），2025 年钻探作业量达 370 万米；NMMC 称随着产量持续增长，扩充钻探能力是维持全矿区稳定采矿计划的前提。钻探—爆破—铲装—运输为露天矿产能扩张的工序链，钻探扩编处于最前端。哈萨克侧：AKAB 7 月《Вестник》公报显示上半年国内卡车组装同比 −1.2%（绝对量未披露）；7 月销量细分未发布，中国品牌渗透继续以海关出口反推。NMMC, operator of Uzbekistan's Muruntau — one of the world's largest gold mines — says it keeps adding modern high-capacity drill rigs (including Epiroc's electric Pit Viper 231E rotary blasthole rig), with drilling reaching 3.7 million metres in 2025; NMMC states that as output keeps growing, expanded drilling capacity is the precondition for a stable mine schedule across the deposit. Drilling–blasting–loading–haulage forms the open-pit expansion sequence, and the drill build-out sits at its very front. On the Kazakh side, AKAB's July Vestnik bulletin shows H1 domestic truck assembly down 1.2% YoY (absolute volume undisclosed); the July sales split is unpublished, so Chinese-brand penetration continues to be back-derived from customs exports.

关键数据Key data2025 钻探 370 万米3.7m metres drilled in 2025哈萨克 H1 卡车组装 −1.2% YoYKazakh H1 truck assembly −1.2% YoY
对业务的含义Implication

乌兹别克金矿 capex 处于扩张段、钻探能力先行——按工序链推断，中段的矿区运输（矿卡/自卸）需求或随之上移，但本条无整车采购来源，落点标「待证实」；锚点是 NMMC 后续设备采购公告与中国对乌卡车出口。

Uzbek gold-mine capex is in an expansion leg with drilling capacity moving first — by the sequence of operations, mid-chain haulage (mining trucks/tippers) demand may rise in its wake, but this entry has no vehicle-procurement source, so the landing point is flagged 'to be confirmed'; the anchors are NMMC's subsequent equipment tenders and China's truck exports to Uzbekistan.

西亚 / 中东West Asia / Middle East

土耳其 OSD 上半年：总产量 663,397 辆（−6% YoY），商用车产量逆势 +10%——重型商用车 +9%，卡车产能利用率 60%Turkey OSD H1: total output at 663,397 units (−6% YoY) while CV production bucks the trend at +10% — heavy CVs +9%, truck capacity utilization 60%14

OSD（土耳其汽车工业协会）上半年生产公报（7/11 上线，工厂口径）：1–6 月总产量 663,397 辆（−6% YoY），其中商用车产量 +10%——重型商用车 +9%、轻型商用车 +10%，卡车产能利用率 60%；整车出口 462,552 辆（−12% YoY），但商用车出口量 +8%，出口额 208 亿美元（+4% YoY）。7 月单月报告截至 8/17 未上线，发布后按月深更。OSD's H1 production bulletin (posted Jul 11, factory basis): Jan–Jun output totaled 663,397 units (−6% YoY), within which CV production rose 10% — heavy CVs +9% and light CVs +10%, with truck capacity utilization at 60%; vehicle exports fell 12% YoY to 462,552 units, but CV export volume rose 8% and export value reached $20.8bn (+4% YoY). The July bulletin was not yet online as of Aug 17; the monthly deep-dive follows publication.

关键数据Key data商用车产量 +10% · 重型 +9%CV output +10% · heavy +9%卡车产能利用率 60%Truck capacity utilization 60%
对业务的含义Implication

土耳其乘用车产量收缩、商用车逆势增长——西亚唯一有硬数据的市场，产量与出口同增说明重型配套采购盘在扩；海湾市场仍无公开 CV 细分，继续以中国海关出口反推。

Turkish passenger-car output is contracting while CV production grows against the trend — the only West Asian market with hard data, and rising output plus exports means the heavy-component procurement pool is expanding; Gulf markets still publish no CV split, so China customs exports remain the proxy.

06中国 OEM 出海China OEM Overseas Expansion2

货车出口 7 月 10.7 万辆（+66.9% YoY）——Reuters：开战后四个月重型电动卡车出口 16,823 辆、同比翻倍以上，一半流向南亚与东南亚Truck exports at 107k units in July (+66.9% YoY) — Reuters: heavy e-truck exports more than doubled YoY to 16,823 units in the four war months, half bound for South and Southeast Asia15

中汽协 8/12 发布：7 月商用车出口 12.1 万辆（+59.6% YoY、−8.6% MoM），其中货车出口 10.7 万辆（+66.9% YoY）、新能源商用车出口 1.3 万辆（+150% YoY，官方发布口径）；1–7 月商用车出口 78.5 万辆（+36.1% YoY），货车 68.6 万辆（+38.7%）、新能源商用车 6.6 万辆（+23%）——上期「卡车出口细分待发布」的锚点落地。结构上 Reuters 8/14 报道补上关键一层：2/28 开战以来四个月，中国重型电动卡车出口 16,823 辆、同比翻倍以上，其中一半流向南亚与东南亚——对南亚出口增至五倍多、对东南亚接近三倍；驱动是柴油价格，斯里兰卡较战前 +48%、菲律宾 +57%、中国 +15%。三一（Reuters 称其为全球最大电动重卡制造商）6 月拿到其最大单笔订单 880 辆重型卡车，并称高油价把电动重卡投资回收期从 28 个月缩到 18 个月；中国上半年电动卡车销量 14 万辆。CAAM's Aug 12 release: July CV exports reached 121k units (+59.6% YoY, −8.6% MoM), within which truck exports hit 107k (+66.9% YoY) and NEV commercial-vehicle exports 13k (+150% YoY, official release basis); Jan–Jul CV exports totaled 785k (+36.1% YoY), with trucks at 686k (+38.7%) and NEV CVs at 66k (+23%) — closing last week's 'truck-export split pending' anchor. Reuters' Aug 14 report adds the structural layer: in the four months since the war began on Feb 28, China exported 16,823 heavy e-trucks, more than double a year earlier, half of them to South and Southeast Asia — shipments to South Asia rose more than fivefold and to Southeast Asia nearly tripled. The driver is diesel: up 48% in Sri Lanka since the war began, 57% in the Philippines and 15% in China. Sany (which Reuters calls the world's largest electric heavy-truck maker) booked its largest single order of 880 heavy trucks in June, and says high oil prices have cut the e-truck payback period from 28 to 18 months; China sold 140,000 e-trucks in the first half.

关键数据Key data货车出口 10.7 万辆 · +66.9% YoYTruck exports 107k · +66.9% YoY电动重卡出口 16,823 辆 · 翻倍以上Heavy e-truck exports 16,823 · 2x+南亚 5 倍多 · 东南亚近 3 倍S. Asia 5x+ · SE Asia ~3x
直接关切Directly material对业务的含义Implication

战争把柴油成本变成中国电动重卡的出口杠杆，而主要去向正是我们的辖区腹地——整车带自配电驱桥进场，海外基本盘面临与中国国内同构的替代压力。8 月中下旬海关分国别明细发布后，按国别校准各市场的进场节奏与我方配套敞口。

The war has turned diesel costs into the export lever for Chinese electric heavy trucks, and the main destinations are precisely our regional heartland — the vehicles arrive with in-house e-axles, importing the same substitution pressure seen inside China into the overseas base. Once customs country-level detail lands in mid-to-late August, calibrate entry pace and our component exposure market by market.

中国重汽 1–7 月重卡 21.87 万辆（+27% YoY）、市占 29.4%——行业销量与出口双第一，37 座海外 KD 工厂Sinotruk's Jan–Jul heavy trucks at 218.7k units (+27% YoY) and a 29.4% share — first in both industry sales and exports, with 37 overseas KD plants16

厂商通稿口径（软文剥离，销量与份额有第一商用车网批发表格佐证）：中国重汽 1–7 月重卡累计销售 21.87 万辆（+27% YoY）、市占率 29.4%（较 2025 年同期提升 1.9 个百分点），行业总销量与出口销量双第一（出口绝对量未披露）；海外布局 37 座 KD 组装工厂、700 余家海外服务站（厂商口径）。新能源端：7 月重汽新能源重卡 4,142 辆（+164% YoY，交强险终端口径；厂商通稿口径为 4,959 辆/+164.8%，两口径并列注明）。From the manufacturer release (promotional copy stripped; volume and share corroborated by cvworld's wholesale tables): Sinotruk sold 218.7k heavy trucks in Jan–Jul (+27% YoY) for a 29.4% share (up 1.9pp on the same period of 2025), ranking first in both total industry sales and exports (export volume undisclosed); its overseas footprint spans 37 KD assembly plants and 700-plus service stations (manufacturer account). On NEVs, Sinotruk's July NEV heavy trucks reached 4,142 units (+164% YoY, insurance-registration terminal basis; the company release states 4,959 units/+164.8% — the two bases are noted side by side).

关键数据Key data1–7 月 21.87 万辆 · +27% YoYJan–Jul 218.7k · +27% YoY市占 29.4% · 双第一29.4% share · first in sales & exports37 座海外 KD 工厂37 overseas KD plants
直接关切Directly material对业务的含义Implication

每卖出三台中国重卡就有近一台是重汽，且其两台增长引擎——出口与新能源——都跑在自配电驱桥与车轴体系内。头部集中叠加垂直整合，独立车轴供应商的前装空间被双向挤压；重汽的 KD 属地化版图是判断各国替代节奏的先行地图。

Nearly one in three Chinese heavy trucks sold is a Sinotruk, and both of its growth engines — exports and NEVs — run on in-house e-axles and axles. Concentration plus vertical integration squeezes the OE space for independent axle suppliers from both sides; Sinotruk's KD localization map is the leading indicator for substitution pace country by country.

来源Sources
1国家发展改革委 · 中国人民银行（经央广网/中新网转载）· 国家统计局NDRC · PBoC (via CNR/China News) · NBS 发改委 8/14 调价通知央行 7 月金融数据（央广网）7 月金融统计（中新网）7 月制造业 PMI 49.2（统计局）2026-08-14
2Antara · 雅加达邮报 · CNN Indonesia · APBI-ICMA · Mysteel · Bisnis.comAntara · The Jakarta Post · CNN Indonesia · APBI-ICMA · Mysteel · Bisnis.com RAPBN 2027（Antara）Molinas 电摩生态（Jakarta Post）100 万辆 EV 激励宣示（CNN Indonesia）BI 行长提名（Antara）RKAB 批复待决（APBI-ICMA）Weda Bay 追加配额（Mysteel，待证实）8 月上期 HBA（Bisnis.com）2026-08-10 / 08-14
3DTiNews（Dan Tri 英文版）· VIR（越南投资评论）· VOVDTiNews (Dan Tri English) · VIR (Vietnam Investment Review) · VOV 8/13 油价二连降Citi 上调 2026 预测至 ~8%放款加速决议（VOV）2026-08-13 / 08-14
4中国汽车工业协会（经中国商用汽车网）· 第一商用车网CAAM (via cv.ce.cn) · cvworld.cn 中汽协 7 月商用车产销7 月重卡 8.40 万辆（cvworld）7 月牵引车 4.24 万辆（cvworld）2026-08-12 / 08-13
5第一商用车网cvworld.cn (No.1 CV Network) 7 月新能源重卡终端（交强险）7 月市场分析（出口/电卡/燃气）2026-08-10 / 08-14
6Global TrailerGlobal Trailer Wielton EVO 厢式半挂Elmia Lastbil 展会预告2026-08-10
7International MiningInternational Mining 三一自动驾驶矿卡发运南美2026-08-14
8卓众商用车（东风商用车通稿）bjcv.com (Dongfeng CV release) 东风/中集 和田 500 台签约交付2026-08-14
9ARCHION IR · just-auto（引 JAMA）· 日刊自動車新聞（引 JADA）ARCHION IR · just-auto (citing JAMA) · Nikkan Jidosha Shimbun (citing JADA) ARCHION Q1 新闻稿 PDF日本 7 月销量（just-auto）7 月普通卡车登记（日刊自動車新聞）2026-08-12 / 08-13
10Vietnamnet（引 VAMA）Vietnamnet (citing VAMA) VAMA 7 月与前 7 月销量2026-08-13
12FADA（经 Autocar Professional）· Business Standard（引 Tata 公告）FADA (via Autocar Professional) · Business Standard (citing Tata's filing) FADA 7 月零售数据 PDFCV 零售 99,666 辆（Autocar Pro）Tata 7 月 CV +37%2026-08-01 / 08-06
13International Mining · AKAB《Вестник》（经 asroad.org）International Mining · AKAB Vestnik (via asroad.org) NMMC Muruntau 钻机扩编AKAB 7 月公报 PDF2026-08-13
14OSD（土耳其汽车工业协会）· Teknotalk（转述 H1 公报）OSD (Turkish Automotive Manufacturers Association) · Teknotalk (H1 bulletin summary) OSD 生产公报页H1 数据报道（Teknotalk）2026-07-11
15中汽协（经第一商用车网）· Reuters（经 Yahoo Finance）CAAM (via cvworld.cn) · Reuters (via Yahoo Finance) 7 月商用车出口 12.1 万辆Reuters：战争与中国电卡出口2026-08-13 / 08-14
16中国商用汽车网（重汽通稿）· 第一商用车网（批发表格佐证）cv.ce.cn (Sinotruk release) · cvworld.cn (wholesale-table corroboration) 重汽 1–7 月三项数据1–7 月重卡累计表（cvworld）2026-08-14