行业动态周报Weekly Industry Brief

重型商用车 · 挂车 · 矿用车 情报周报车轴 / 第五轮座 / 连接件 视角 · 亚洲 Heavy CV · Trailers · Mining Vehicles IntelligenceAxle / fifth-wheel / coupling lens · Asia

2026 · W31
2026-07-20 → 07-26
本周主线Bottom Line

中国在同一周里给电动重卡发了补贴、也定了税：7/21 国新办确认 220 亿元超长期特别国债支持国三/国四营运货车报废更新、资金优先给新能源货车；三部门公告 9/1 起动力电池恢复征收 2% 消费税、2027 年升至 4%。上半年营业性货运量只增 3.2%、二季度放缓到 2.4%——运量撑不起这轮景气，下半年重卡的量与成本都由政策定。海外改的是路径：美国 301「强迫劳动」关税 7/24 生效（中国/越南/泰国 12.5%、印尼/马来/印度 10%），对美出口按国别分成两档成本，产能落地印尼/印度的逻辑再加一分；印尼央行加息 100 个基点后首次暂停（5.75%），矿权与镍配额都在等细则——核心区域从「三线齐收」转入「高位盘整」，8 月初的补充批复与部令决定 H2 项目管线的能见度。

In a single week China both subsidised and taxed the electric heavy truck: the State Council Information Office confirmed on 21 Jul a RMB 22bn allocation of ultra-long special treasury bonds for scrapping-and-replacing China III/IV commercial trucks, with funds tilted toward new-energy vehicles; and a three-ministry notice reinstates a 2% consumption tax on power batteries from 1 Sep, rising to 4% in 2027. H1 commercial freight volume grew just 3.2%, slowing to 2.4% in Q2 — freight alone cannot carry this cycle, so both the volume and the cost of H2 heavy trucks are now set by policy. Overseas, the change is in routing: US Section 301 'forced labour' tariffs took effect 24 Jul (China/Vietnam/Thailand at 12.5%, Indonesia/Malaysia/India at 10%), tiering export costs by country and adding weight to the Indonesia/India localisation case; Bank Indonesia paused at 5.75% after 100bps of hikes, while mining permits and the nickel quota both await implementing rules — the core market has moved from tightening on three fronts to a high-plateau holding pattern, with early-August approvals and the ministerial decree deciding H2 pipeline visibility.

宏观Macro

中国上半年营业性货运量 280.7 亿吨（+3.2% YoY）、二季度放缓至 +2.4%；220 亿元置换资金 7/21 确认下达，动力电池 9/1 起恢复征收 2% 消费税（2027 年 4%）。印尼 BI 7/22 维持 5.75%，年内累计加息 100bps 后首次暂停。

China's H1 commercial freight volume reached 28.07bn tonnes (+3.2% YoY), slowing to +2.4% in Q2; the RMB 22bn scrappage fund was confirmed on 21 Jul, and a 2% battery consumption tax returns from 1 Sep (4% in 2027). Bank Indonesia held at 5.75% on 22 Jul — its first pause after 100bps of hikes this year.

信号Signal

美国 301 关税 7/24 生效：越/泰对美税负净增约 2.5 个百分点、印尼/印度平移——对美供应链向 10% 档国家再配置。韩国 2027 年起对 15 吨以上重卡设强制减排线（2030 年较 2021–22 基准 −30%）。三一 SKT145Ei 详解公开：无驾驶室＋纯电＋自动驾驶成为中国宽体矿卡头部的共同平台选择。

US 301 tariffs took effect 24 Jul: Vietnam/Thailand face a net ~2.5pt increase on US-bound exports while Indonesia/India carry over flat — US-facing supply chains re-tilt toward the 10% tier. Korea sets a mandatory emissions line for trucks above 15t from 2027 (−30% by 2030 vs the 2021–22 baseline). SANY detailed the SKT145Ei: cabless, battery-electric and autonomous is now the shared platform direction of China's leading wide-body mining-truck makers.

需求Demand

印尼 H1 卡车批发 35,934 辆（+39% YoY）是辖区最强增长极；马来西亚 CV 上半年 23,718 辆（−11% YoY）、菲律宾 CV 164,054 辆（−11% YoY）、泰国全年产量预测下调 3.3%——东南亚其余市场商用车面偏冷；巴基斯坦 FY26 卡车+巴士 7,439 辆（+67% YoY，低基数）。

Indonesia's H1 truck wholesales of 35,934 units (+39% YoY) are the territory's strongest growth pole; Malaysia's H1 CV at 23,718 (−11% YoY), the Philippines' CV at 164,054 (−11% YoY) and Thailand's 3.3% production-forecast cut leave the rest of Southeast Asia's CV side cool; Pakistan's FY26 trucks-plus-buses reached 7,439 (+67% YoY off a low base).

结论Verdict

首要监测项四个：7/31 印尼 RKAB 补充批复总量与矿权选拔部令；7 月底政治局会议与 7/31 中国油价窗口；8 月初中国 7 月重卡销量与新能源渗透率；8/1 印尼 HBA。产品线上盯两条：9/1 电池消费税生效前的电动重卡抢装窗口；无驾驶室矿卡平台带来的车轴/悬架规格重定义。

Four items to watch: Indonesia's supplementary RKAB approvals and the permit-selection decree around 31 Jul; China's late-July Politburo meeting and the 31 Jul fuel-price window; China's July HDV sales and NEV penetration in early August; and the 1 Aug Indonesian HBA. On the product line, two threads: a possible pull-forward of electric HDV purchases before the 1 Sep battery tax, and the axle/suspension spec redefinition that cabless mining-truck platforms bring.

本周要点Key Takeaways
01宏观与政策环境Macro & Policy4
已传导Transmitted置信 高Confidence High

中国：220 亿元置换资金落地、上半年货运量增速放缓——下半年重卡需求由政策现金流接棒，7/31 油价窗口与政治局会议为下两个节点China: the RMB 22bn scrappage fund lands as H1 freight growth slows — policy cash flow takes over H2 truck demand; the 31 Jul fuel-price window and the Politburo meeting are the next two nodes1

国新办 7/21 发布会（交通运输部）：2026 年安排 220 亿元超长期特别国债支持老旧营运货车报废更新，覆盖国三、国四排放的柴油与天然气营运货车，补贴期 2026-01-01 至 12-31，按报废车型与新购动力类型差别化补贴、优先支持更新为新能源货车（媒体有单车最高约 19 万元一说，部委原文未列，标待核实）。交通部 7/23 发布上半年数据：营业性货运量 280.7 亿吨（+3.2% YoY），其中二季度 +2.4% 边际放缓；公路货运量 212.2 亿吨（+3.2% YoY）。出口端对照：1–5 月中国重卡出口 17.7 万辆（+40% YoY，券商研报援引行业数据，转载口径）。上期锚点交代：本周（7/20–26）无成品油调价窗口，下一窗口 7/31；7 月重卡销量与新能源渗透率待 8 月初发布；政治局会议截至 7/26 未召开，通稿为下期锚点。At the 21 Jul State Council Information Office briefing, the Ministry of Transport confirmed RMB 22bn of ultra-long special treasury bonds for 2026 to fund the scrapping and replacement of China III/IV diesel and natural-gas commercial trucks, with subsidies running 1 Jan–31 Dec 2026, differentiated by scrapped model and replacement powertrain and tilted toward new-energy trucks (media cite a per-truck cap of ~RMB 190k, not listed in the ministry text — unverified). MOT's H1 data (23 Jul): commercial freight volume 28.07bn tonnes (+3.2% YoY), with Q2 slowing to +2.4%; road freight 21.22bn tonnes (+3.2% YoY). Export contrast: Jan–May China HDV exports reached 177k units (+40% YoY, industry figures cited in a brokerage note — secondary basis). Last issue's anchors addressed: no fuel-price window fell in 20–26 Jul (next: 31 Jul); July HDV sales and NEV penetration come in early August; the Politburo meeting had not convened by 26 Jul — its communiqué is next issue's anchor.

关键数据（事实层）Key data (facts)置换资金 220 亿元（超长期特别国债）Scrappage fund RMB 22bn (special bonds)H1 货运量 280.7 亿吨 · +3.2% YoY · Q2 +2.4%H1 freight 28.07bn t · +3.2% YoY · Q2 +2.4%公路货运 212.2 亿吨 · +3.2% YoYRoad freight 21.22bn t · +3.2% YoY1–5 月重卡出口 17.7 万辆 · +40% YoY（转载）Jan–May HDV exports 177k · +40% YoY (secondary)
事件Event

国新办 7/21 确认 220 亿元支持国三/国四营运货车报废更新、优先新能源；交通部 7/23 公布上半年货运量 +3.2%、Q2 放缓至 +2.4%。The 21 Jul briefing confirmed RMB 22bn for scrapping China III/IV commercial trucks, tilted toward NEVs; MOT's 23 Jul data showed H1 freight at +3.2% with Q2 slowing to +2.4%.

机制Mechanism

货运量是重卡需求最直接的同步指标——总量正增长但边际减速，自然需求撑不起上半年 +22.6% 的重卡大盘；中央资金到位把「政策驱动置换」从推断变成有预算的事实，且资金权重偏向电动化。Freight volume is the most direct coincident indicator of truck demand — positive but decelerating, it cannot explain an HDV market up 22.6% in H1; the funded allocation turns 'policy-driven replacement' from inference into a budgeted fact, weighted toward electrification.

市场Market

下半年国三/国四置换需求有真金白银托底，新能源重卡销量与渗透率有望延续上行；运量减速下，公路车队的自然换购与运力扩张需求承压。H2 scrappage demand now has funded backing and NEV heavy-truck sales and penetration are likely to keep climbing; with freight decelerating, organic fleet renewal and capacity expansion stay pressured.

业务Business

车轴/连接件配套量跟着置换节奏走，电驱桥对传统车轴的替代随补贴导向或继续加速；燃油车配套以存量替换为主、增量有限。Axle/coupling volumes track the replacement cadence; e-axle substitution of conventional axles is likely to accelerate further with the subsidy tilt, while diesel-truck supply stays a replacement business with little incremental volume.

净判断Net

中国重卡的下半年是政策市：量看 220 亿元的执行进度，不看运量。China's H2 heavy-truck market is a policy market: volume follows the RMB 22bn's execution, not freight.

前提Premise资金按期拨付执行、补贴细则不收窄；货运量不失速下行。Funds disburse on schedule with no narrowing of subsidy rules; freight volume does not fall off sharply.
证伪信号Falsifier7–8 月重卡销量环比转负，或新能源渗透率回落至 40% 以下，「政策托底」判断弱化。A negative MoM turn in Jul–Aug HDV sales, or NEV penetration slipping below 40%, would weaken the policy-underpinning read.
追踪锚点Track8 月初第一商用车网 7 月重卡销量与新能源渗透率；7/31 油价窗口；7 月底政治局会议通稿。CVWorld's July HDV sales and NEV penetration in early August; the 31 Jul fuel-price window; the late-July Politburo communiqué.
领先指标Leading置信 高Confidence High

中国：动力电池 9/1 起恢复征收消费税——2% 起步、2027 年升至 4%，钠电/固态/燃料电池免征（电动重卡成本的第一个政策测试）China reinstates a consumption tax on power batteries from 1 Sep — 2% now, 4% from Sep 2027; sodium-ion, solid-state and fuel cells exempt (the first policy-made cost test for electric HDVs)2

财政部、海关总署、税务总局 2026 年第 20 号公告（成文 7/16，行业解读本周扩散；上期未收录，本期补收）：自 2026-09-01 起对锂离子蓄电池等恢复征收 2% 消费税，2027-09-01 起升至 4%；钠离子电池、固态电池、燃料电池 2026-09-01 至 2028-12-31 免征（须符合国家标准并取得资质机构检测报告）。锂电池自 2015 年起的免税期就此结束。电池是电动重卡最大的单一成本件，出厂环节加征将抬升购置成本或压缩电池厂与主机厂毛利；柴油、LNG 车不受影响。MOF, GACC and STA Announcement No. 20 of 2026 (dated 16 Jul; industry readings spread this week — not covered last issue, picked up now): from 1 Sep 2026 lithium-ion and other batteries again carry a 2% consumption tax, rising to 4% from 1 Sep 2027; sodium-ion, solid-state and fuel-cell batteries are exempt from 1 Sep 2026 through end-2028 (subject to national standards and certified test reports). This ends the tax holiday lithium batteries have enjoyed since 2015. The battery is the largest single cost item in an electric heavy truck; a factory-gate levy either raises purchase cost or squeezes battery-maker and OEM margins. Diesel and LNG trucks are unaffected.

关键数据（事实层）Key data (facts)9/1 起 2% → 2027/9 起 4%2% from 1 Sep → 4% from Sep 2027钠电/固态/燃料电池免征至 2028 年末Na-ion/solid-state/fuel cells exempt thru 2028锂电池 2015 年以来免税期结束Ends lithium's tax holiday since 2015
事件Event

三部门公告：9/1 起锂电池恢复 2% 消费税、2027 年 9 月升 4%；钠电/固态/燃料电池免征至 2028 年末。The three-ministry notice: a 2% consumption tax on lithium batteries returns 1 Sep, rising to 4% from Sep 2027; sodium-ion, solid-state and fuel cells exempt through 2028.

机制Mechanism

造车成本型传导——电动重卡电池包动辄数百 kWh、按整包计税，2% 出厂税直接进成本；免税清单同时把技术路线的经济性天平推向钠电/固态/燃料电池。A build-cost transmission — electric HDV packs run to hundreds of kWh and are taxed at the pack level, so 2% at the factory gate goes straight into cost; the exemption list simultaneously tilts the economics toward sodium-ion, solid-state and fuel cells.

市场Market

9/1 前或出现电动重卡抢装与提前备货，其后新能源重卡对柴油/LNG 的 TCO 优势边际收窄；与 220 亿置换补贴同向对冲，渗透率上行斜率面临测试。Pull-forward purchases and stocking are likely before 1 Sep; afterwards the electric HDV's TCO edge over diesel/LNG narrows at the margin — offsetting the RMB 22bn subsidy and testing the slope of penetration.

业务Business

电驱桥替代的节奏多了一个成本变量——Q3 订单或前移，Q4 起看税负在电池厂、主机厂与终端之间如何分摊。E-axle substitution gains a cost variable — Q3 orders may pull forward, and from Q4 the question is how the levy splits between battery makers, OEMs and end buyers.

净判断Net

补贴与征税同周并行：政策在给电动化踩油门的同时装了一个计价器——替代方向不变，斜率待验。Subsidy and tax in the same week: policy keeps its foot on the electrification accelerator while fitting a meter — the direction of substitution stands, its slope is now to be proven.

前提Premise税负部分传导至终端车价，而非被产业链全额消化。Part of the levy passes into end prices rather than being fully absorbed along the chain.
证伪信号Falsifier若电池厂/主机厂全额吸收、终端车价不动，则购置成本传导不成立，此条降级为供应链毛利问题。If battery makers/OEMs absorb it fully and end prices hold, the purchase-cost transmission fails and this becomes a supply-chain margin story.
追踪锚点Track9–10 月新能源重卡销量与渗透率（观察抢装与其后的回落）；主要电池厂 Q3 财报毛利。Sep–Oct NEV heavy-truck sales and penetration (watch the pull-forward and any dip after); major battery makers' Q3 margins.
领先指标Leading置信 中Confidence Mid

印尼：BI 年内加息 100bps 后首次暂停（5.75%）——矿权选拔部令与 RKAB 补充批复进入倒计时，供给侧从「齐收」转「等细则」Indonesia: BI pauses at 5.75% after 100bps of hikes this year — the permit-selection decree and supplementary RKAB approvals are on the clock; the supply side shifts from tightening to awaiting rules3

利率：BI 7/21–22 例会维持 BI-Rate 5.75%（存款/贷款便利 4.75%/6.50%），为 2026 年累计加息 100bps（护卢比）后的首次暂停——政策利率仅作资金成本方向背景，车队实际承担的商业贷款利率更高、另计。矿权：能矿部长 Bahlil 7/21–22 回应宪法法院 7/16 裁决（上期锚点交代）：合作社、宗教团体等的优先获矿资格保留，但「直接指定」改为透明选拔程序，标准由部长条例另定（要求之一：申请者须在矿区所在地）；存量矿权处置与时间表未明。镍配额：本周无补充批复量公布（上期锚点交代），ESDM 维持「只补冶炼缺口、不放总量」（2026 基准约 260 百万湿吨 vs 2025 年批复 379 百万湿吨，约 −31%），7/31 申请截止、批复总量 8 月见分晓。煤价：8 月上半期 HBA 未出（上期锚点交代），现行 7 月下半期 $131.85/吨（6,322 kcal GAR，期环比 +4.16%）；DMO $70/吨限价修订无进展。Rates: BI's 21–22 Jul meeting held the BI-Rate at 5.75% (deposit/lending facilities 4.75%/6.50%), the first pause after 100bps of rupiah-defending hikes this year — the policy rate is background for funding-cost direction only; fleets' actual commercial lending rates run higher. Permits: Energy Minister Bahlil responded on 21–22 Jul to the Constitutional Court's 16 Jul ruling (last issue's anchor addressed): cooperatives and religious organisations keep their priority access to mining permits, but direct appointment becomes a transparent selection process, with criteria set by a forthcoming ministerial regulation (one requirement: applicants must be local to the mining area); treatment of existing permits and timing remain open. Nickel: no supplementary quota approvals were published this week (anchor addressed) — ESDM holds to 'smelter shortfalls only, no headline increase' (2026 baseline ~260m wmt vs 379m approved for 2025, ≈ −31%), with applications closing 31 Jul and totals due in August. Coal: the early-August HBA is not yet out (anchor addressed); the current H2-July HBA stands at $131.85/t (6,322 kcal GAR, +4.16% period-on-period); no progress on revising the $70/t DMO cap.

关键数据（事实层）Key data (facts)BI-Rate 5.75% · 首次暂停（年内 +100bps）BI-Rate 5.75% · first pause (+100bps YTD)矿权：直接指定 → 选拔 · 部令待出Permits: appointment → selection · decree pendingRKAB 260 对 379 百万湿吨 · 7/31 截止RKAB 260m vs 379m wmt · closes 31 JulHBA $131.85/吨 · +4.16% 期环比HBA $131.85/t · +4.16% period-on-period
事件Event

BI 7/22 暂停加息；Bahlil 宣布矿权优先机制保留、直接指定改选拔、细则待部令；RKAB 补充窗口 7/31 截止在即。BI paused on 22 Jul; Bahlil confirmed priority access stays but appointment becomes selection, pending a ministerial decree; the supplementary RKAB window closes 31 Jul.

机制Mechanism

融资端从「持续收紧」转「高位企稳」，购车信贷环境不再恶化但也无缓解；矿权发放等部令期间，新矿区（多为煤）开发与配套采购进入观望；镍配额锁定 2026 年矿石运量上限；煤价连续两期上行改善煤企现金流。Funding shifts from tightening to a high-level hold — credit conditions stop worsening but do not ease; while the decree is pending, new-area development (mostly coal) and its equipment purchases sit in wait-and-see; the nickel quota caps 2026 ore haulage; two straight HBA rises improve coal miners' cash flow.

市场Market

新矿区矿卡/自卸车采购节奏或推迟一至两个季度；镍带运量顶被锁死的判断维持；加里曼丹煤运需求受价格支撑、温和向好。Mining-truck and tipper purchases tied to new areas may slip one to two quarters; the capped-ceiling read on nickel-belt haulage stands; Kalimantan coal haulage leans mildly positive on price support.

业务Business

印尼矿卡与重卡车轴配套的项目型增量继续后移，存量替换与煤带运营为基本盘；8 月初两个政策节点决定 H2 项目管线的能见度。Project-driven increments for mining-truck and HDV axle supply in Indonesia keep sliding right; replacement demand and coal-belt operations carry the base — the two early-August policy nodes set H2 pipeline visibility.

净判断Net

印尼供给侧从三线齐收进入高位盘整——方向未松、节奏看部令与批复，8 月初见分晓。Indonesia's supply side has moved from tightening on three fronts to a high plateau — direction unchanged, timing now hangs on the decree and the approvals, both due early August.

前提Premise部令在 Q3 内出台且不推翻「优先+选拔」框架；7/31 窗口不出现全国性配额放量。The decree lands within Q3 without overturning the priority-plus-selection framework; the 31 Jul window brings no headline quota expansion.
证伪信号FalsifierESDM 若批出大幅超预期的补充配额，或部令快速落地并放宽准入，需求后移的判断需下修。Materially larger-than-expected supplementary approvals, or a fast, looser decree, would force a downward revision of the demand-deferral read.
追踪锚点Track8 月初 ESDM 补充批复总量；矿权选拔部令；8/1 HBA；BI 8 月例会。ESDM's supplementary approval totals in early August; the permit-selection decree; the 1 Aug HBA; BI's August meeting.
已传导Transmitted置信 高Confidence High

美国 301「强迫劳动」关税 7/24 生效：中国/越南/泰国 12.5%、印尼/马来/印度 10%——对美出口分档，产能落地印尼/印度的逻辑再加一分US Section 301 'forced labour' tariffs take effect 24 Jul: China/Vietnam/Thailand at 12.5%, Indonesia/Malaysia/India at 10% — US-bound exports now tiered, adding weight to the Indonesia/India localisation case4

USTR 7/23 发布对 60 个经济体的 301「强迫劳动」关税最终行动，7/24 起生效：已立法禁止强迫劳动产品进口或承诺立法的经济体入 10% 档（含印尼、马来西亚、印度、巴基斯坦），其余入 12.5% 档（含中国、越南、泰国）。该关税无缝接替 7/23 到期、不可延长的 122 条款全球 10% 附加税——10% 档国家税负平移，12.5% 档净增约 2.5 个百分点；已被 232 等行业关税覆盖的产品排除。行动正文无专门转运条款（仅在途豁免），但越南同时处于三条 301 调查轨道、被点名为转运枢纽（2025 年对美顺差约 1,780 亿美元）。背景：越南盾 7/20 Vietcombank 挂牌 26,490 VND/USD，历史低位区间阴跌；越南公共投资 7 月放款数据 8 月初发布（上期锚点交代：H1 35.5% 之后待月度验证，本周无新数据）。USTR issued its final Section 301 'forced labour' action against 60 economies on 23 Jul, effective 24 Jul: economies that ban forced-labour imports in law, or have committed to, sit in the 10% tier (including Indonesia, Malaysia, India and Pakistan); the rest take 12.5% (including China, Vietnam and Thailand). The tariff seamlessly replaces the Section 122 global 10% surcharge that lapsed, non-extendable, on 23 Jul — a flat carry-over for the 10% tier and a net ~2.5pt increase for the 12.5% tier; goods already under Section 232-type sectoral tariffs are excluded. The action text has no dedicated transshipment clause (only an in-transit exemption), but Vietnam — named a transshipment hub, with a 2025 US surplus of ~$178bn — is the one economy sitting on three separate 301 tracks. Background: the dong printed 26,490 VND/USD at Vietcombank on 20 Jul, drifting at record lows; Vietnam's July public-investment disbursement comes in early August (last issue's anchor addressed: after 35.5% in H1, monthly verification pending — no new data this week).

关键数据（事实层）Key data (facts)12.5% 档：中国/越南/泰国12.5% tier: China/Vietnam/Thailand10% 档：印尼/马来/印度（税负平移）10% tier: Indonesia/Malaysia/India (flat carry-over)接替 122 条款 · 越/泰净增约 2.5ptReplaces Sec 122 · net +~2.5pt for VN/TH越南盾 26,490 VND/USD（7/20）Dong 26,490 VND/USD (20 Jul)
事件Event

USTR 301 最终行动 7/24 生效，60 经济体按 10%/12.5% 两档征税，接替到期的全球 10% 临时附加税。The final 301 action took effect 24 Jul, taxing 60 economies at 10% or 12.5% and replacing the expired global 10% interim surcharge.

机制Mechanism

外贸/关税型传导——对美出口成本按国别分档：越/泰整车与零部件对美净增约 2.5 个百分点，印尼/印度平移；「经越/泰中转对美」的路径被制度化盯防，合规风险上行。A trade/tariff transmission — US-bound costs now tier by country: vehicles and components from Vietnam/Thailand carry a net ~2.5pt increase while Indonesia/India carry over flat; routing to the US via Vietnam/Thailand comes under institutionalised scrutiny, raising compliance risk.

市场Market

辖区商用车与零部件对美直接出口体量有限、边际冲击可控；更实质的是产地再配置信号——对美敞口的产能与订单或向 10% 档国家倾斜。Direct CV and component exports from the territory to the US are modest, so the marginal hit is manageable; the substantive effect is a re-siting signal — US-exposed capacity and orders are likely to tilt toward 10%-tier countries.

业务Business

中国 OEM 与零部件厂（含我方）在印尼/印度的属地化布局获得关税面的相对优势；依赖越南中转的出口路径需重估。Localisation by Chinese OEMs and component makers — ours included — in Indonesia and India gains a relative tariff advantage; export routes that lean on Vietnamese transshipment need re-pricing.

净判断Net

关税本身冲击有限，路径信号明确：10% 档的印尼与印度成为对美供应链再配置的受益侧。The tariff itself bites little, but the routing signal is clear: 10%-tier Indonesia and India sit on the receiving end of US-facing supply-chain reallocation.

前提Premise两档税率短期不再上调、无追加反规避条款。Neither tier rises near term and no anti-circumvention clause is added.
证伪信号Falsifier越南专项 301 若落地重罚转运，或税档上调，冲击量级需重估。A Vietnam-specific 301 outcome that punishes transshipment hard, or a tier increase, would force a re-sizing of the impact.
追踪锚点Track越南专项 301 调查进展；8 月各国对美出口数据；越南 7 月公共投资放款（8 月初）。The Vietnam-specific 301 track; August export-to-US data by country; Vietnam's July disbursement print (early August).
02重卡 / 商用车市场Trucks & Commercial Vehicles1

一汽解放向安能物流交付首批 133 台、其中 73 台 J6E L2 领航辅助重卡投入干线——辅助驾驶进入头部零担车队的批量采购规格FAW Jiefang delivers a first batch of 133 trucks to ANE Logistics, 73 of them J6E heavy trucks with L2 pilot assist entering trunk-line service — driver assistance reaches a leading LTL fleet's volume purchasing spec5

7/24 浙江常山交付并签署战略合作协议（厂方活动稿，剥离宣传话术、取可核数据）：解放向安能物流交付首批 133 台新车，其中 73 台 J6E L2 领航辅助重卡投入干线运营。安能自 2020 年 6 月引入首台 J6 以来累计运营解放卡车 1,376 台；截至 2026-06-20，安能自营 83 个分拨中心、11,294 辆自营卡车及挂车。厂方称 J6E L2 可节油 3–5%、在 500–1,000 公里中短途干线实现双驾变单驾（厂方口径，未独立验证）。7 月行业月度销量待第一商用车网/中汽协 8 月初发布。Delivered and signed in Changshan, Zhejiang on 24 Jul (an OEM event release — promotional language stripped, verifiable figures kept): Jiefang handed ANE Logistics a first batch of 133 trucks, 73 of them J6E heavy trucks with L2 pilot assist entering trunk-line operation. ANE has run 1,376 Jiefang trucks since its first J6 in June 2020; as of 20 Jun 2026 it operates 83 owned sortation centres and 11,294 owned trucks and trailers. The OEM claims 3–5% fuel savings and single-driver operation replacing two-driver crews on 500–1,000 km trunk routes (company basis, not independently verified). July industry sales come from CVWorld/CAAM in early August.

关键数据Key data首批 133 台 · 其中 73 台 J6E L2First batch 133 · incl. 73 J6E L2安能自营 11,294 辆卡车及挂车ANE fleet: 11,294 owned trucks & trailers节油 3–5% · 双驾变单驾（厂方口径）3–5% fuel saving · single-driver ops (company basis)
对业务的含义Implication

零担头部车队把 L2 领航辅助写进干线牵引车的批量采购规格——辅助驾驶从选配走向标配的信号；对配套端，此类车型对车桥可靠性、线控接口与悬架匹配的要求高于常规车型。

A leading LTL fleet has written L2 pilot assist into its trunk-tractor purchasing spec — a sign driver assistance is moving from option to standard; for suppliers, these trucks demand more of axle reliability, by-wire interfaces and suspension matching than conventional models.

03挂车 / 零部件与竞争对手Trailers, Components & Competitors3

SAF-Holland EMEA 换帅：9/1 起 Charpiot 接任区域总裁——Haldex 整合操盘手之一上位，对齐 drive2030 战略Leadership change at SAF-Holland EMEA: Charpiot takes over as regional president from 1 Sep — one of the Haldex integration hands moves up, aligned to the drive2030 strategy6

SAF-Holland 任命 Alexandre Charpiot 自 9/1 起出任 EMEA 区域总裁，接替离任外就的 Christoph Günter——后者执掌这一集团最大区域业务近七年、主导了 Haldex 在 EMEA 的整合。Charpiot 2009 年加入，先后负责售后市场、物流采购与产品管理，2022 年起任 EMEA OEM 销售副总裁，分管欧洲子公司及 Haldex、Tecma、Assali Stefen 的区域整合；新任期对齐 drive2030 战略（强化市场地位、改善运营表现、全产品组合寻找增长）。同稿披露：Schmitz Cargobull 任命新的匈牙利国家经理。SAF-Holland has appointed Alexandre Charpiot president of its EMEA region from 1 Sep, succeeding Christoph Günter, who leaves for a role outside the group after nearly seven years running its largest regional business and steering the Haldex integration across EMEA. Charpiot joined in 2009, has led aftermarket, logistics/purchasing and product management, and since 2022 has been VP Sales OEM EMEA, responsible for the European subsidiaries and the integration of Haldex, Tecma and Assali Stefen; his brief aligns with the drive2030 strategy — stronger market position, better operational performance, growth across the portfolio. The same piece notes Schmitz Cargobull has appointed a new country manager for Hungary.

关键数据Key data9/1 Charpiot 接任 EMEA 总裁Charpiot EMEA president from 1 SepGünter 离任（在任近 7 年）Günter departs (nearly 7 years)drive2030 · Haldex/Tecma/Assali Stefen 整合drive2030 · Haldex/Tecma/Assali integration
直接关切Directly material对业务的含义Implication

主要竞品的最大区域业务换帅，OEM 销售与售后双线背景的整合操盘手上位——SAF 在 EMEA 的打法或转向增长扩张，其对亚洲市场的资源摆布是下一个观察项。

Our main competitor's largest regional business changes hands to an integration operator with both OEM-sales and aftermarket credentials — SAF's EMEA play likely tilts toward growth, and how it repositions resources toward Asia is the next thing to watch.

BPW ECO Air 空气悬架欧洲装车量破 20 万台挂车——「车轴＋空悬」入门级打包做成了规模BPW's ECO Air air suspension passes 200,000 trailers fitted in Europe — the entry-level axle-plus-air-suspension bundle reaches genuine scale7

自 2020 年上市以来，BPW ECO Air 9 吨级空气悬架在欧洲装车量突破 20 万台挂车，覆盖侧帘、冷藏与工程自卸等两轴/三轴主流品类，已进入大批量挂车 OEM 产线。系统由车轴、铸造纵臂与铸造气囊梁构成，专利激光辅助夹紧工艺减少零件数、提升装配效率；模块化设计支持单件更换维修；随附 5+3 年不限里程 ECO Plus 质保。定位为 BPW 的入门级空悬。将亮相 IAA Transportation 2026（26 馆 A30）。Since its 2020 launch, BPW's ECO Air 9-tonne air suspension has been fitted to more than 200,000 trailers across Europe — curtainsiders, reefers and construction tippers on two- and three-axle layouts — and is established in high-volume trailer-OEM production. The system comprises the axle, a cast trailing arm and a cast air-bag beam, joined by a patented laser-assisted clamping process that cuts part count and speeds assembly; the modular design allows component-level replacement in service, backed by a 5+3-year, mileage-unlimited ECO Plus warranty. It is positioned as BPW's entry-level air suspension and shows at IAA Transportation 2026 (Hall 26, A30).

关键数据Key data20 万台挂车（2020 年以来 · 欧洲）200,000 trailers (since 2020 · Europe)9 吨级 · 两/三轴主流品类9-tonne · 2/3-axle mainstream segments5+3 年不限里程质保5+3-yr warranty, no mileage limit
直接关切Directly material对业务的含义Implication

竞品把「车轴＋空悬」一体包在入门价位段做到 20 万台规模——亚洲市场空悬渗透率上行时，这套模块化打法会直接出现在我方客户的比价表上，需要有对位的产品与质保答案。

A direct competitor has scaled the entry-priced axle-plus-air-suspension bundle to 200,000 units — as air-suspension penetration rises in Asia, this modular play will appear on our customers' comparison sheets, and we need a matching product and warranty answer.

A 股零部件板块半年预告分化：73 家披露、预喜 42.47%、首亏 17 家最多——中汽协：商用车延续向好、出口超预期China's listed component sector splits at the half: 73 preannouncements, 42.47% positive, 17 first-time losses the largest bucket — CAAM: commercial vehicles stay firm, exports beat expectations8

截至 7/22，A 股 73 家汽车零部件上市公司披露 2026 年半年业绩预告：预喜（略增/减亏/扭亏/预增/续盈）合计 31 家、占 42.47%；首亏 17 家为最多的预警类型，预减 13 家。承压主因是行业竞争加剧、原材料价格上涨与汇兑损失（案例含轴承同行襄阳轴承：境内业绩下滑＋境外子公司亏损＋汇兑损失）。中汽协副秘书长陈士华对上半年的判断：内需承压、销量两位数下降，出口超预期形成支撑；乘用车表现欠佳，商用车延续向好。头部零部件企业正向智能驾驶、机器人关节等第二曲线延伸。By 22 Jul, 73 listed Chinese auto-component companies had issued H1 2026 guidance: 31 (42.47%) positive across the improve/turnaround/growth categories, while first-time losses, at 17, form the largest warning bucket, with 13 more guiding lower. The pressure points are intensified competition, raw-material inflation and FX losses (bearing peer Xiangyang Bearing among the cases: weaker domestic results, loss-making overseas units and FX hits). CAAM deputy secretary-general Chen Shihua's H1 read: domestic demand fell double digits while exports beat expectations and provided the support; passenger cars underperformed while commercial vehicles stayed on an improving track. Leading suppliers are stretching into second curves such as autonomous driving and robotics joints.

关键数据Key data73 家预告 · 预喜 42.47%73 filings · 42.47% positive首亏 17 家为最多类型17 first-time losses — largest bucket商用车延续向好（中汽协）CVs on an improving track (CAAM)
对业务的含义Implication

商用车链的景气好于乘用车链，但价格战与原材料在挤压全行业毛利——竞品与上游供应商的财务弹性开始分化，是评估对手降价空间与自身供应链风险的窗口期。

The CV chain is in better shape than the passenger-car chain, but price wars and raw materials are squeezing margins across the board — competitors' and suppliers' financial resilience is diverging, a window for gauging rivals' pricing room and our own supply-chain risk.

04矿用车 & 矿业Mining Vehicles & Mining1

三一详解 SKT145Ei：90 吨级无驾驶室纯电自动驾驶宽体矿卡——无驾驶室＋纯电＋自动驾驶成为中国头部宽体矿卡的共同平台方向SANY opens up on the SKT145Ei: a 90t-class cabless, battery-electric autonomous wide-body mining truck — cabless + electric + autonomous is now the shared platform direction of China's leading wide-body makers9

三一在 5 月西安全球矿业大客户峰会发布 90 吨级 SKT145Ei 无驾驶室纯电自动驾驶宽体矿卡，7 月放出设计详解：801 kWh 电池平台、多传感器融合感知、三重冗余制动；无驾驶室平台为自动驾驶正向设计——缩短整车长度、优化传感器与控制器布局、更适应矿区窄路，维护检修更易。International Mining 编辑 7 月在新疆某煤矿实地看到 EACON 与同力联合开发的 90 吨级 EQ100E 运行（上期同力 800 台无人矿卡订单的技术脉络延续）；徐工 85 吨级 ZNK95 已在内蒙古伊敏煤矿以华为 AHS 大编组运营——三家头部的量产车型均为无驾驶室、纯电、自动驾驶。SANY launched the 90t-class SKT145Ei cabless, battery-electric autonomous wide-body mining truck at its Global Mining Key Customer Summit in Xi'an in May and published a design deep-dive in July: an 801 kWh battery platform, multi-sensor fusion perception and triple-redundant braking. The cabless platform is purpose-built for autonomy — a shorter vehicle, better sensor and controller placement, a fit for narrow mine roads and easier maintenance. International Mining's editor saw the EACON-Tonly 90t-class EQ100E running at a Xinjiang coal mine in July (the technical thread behind last issue's 800-truck Tonly order), while XCMG's 85t-class ZNK95 operates in large fleets at the Yimin coal mine on Huawei's AHS — all three leaders' production models are cabless, electric and autonomous.

关键数据Key dataSKT145Ei 90 吨级 · 801 kWhSKT145Ei 90t-class · 801 kWh三重冗余制动 · 多传感器融合Triple-redundant braking · sensor fusionEQ100E 新疆实跑 · ZNK95 伊敏矿编组运营EQ100E running in Xinjiang · ZNK95 fleets at Yimin
直接关切Directly material对业务的含义Implication

无驾驶室平台在重新定义整车架构，矿用车轴的载荷分布、可靠性与线控接口规格随之改变；该品类已从样车走到批量交付（同力 800 台）——矿用车轴配套的规格窗口正在打开，进不了新平台的定义阶段，就只剩存量替换生意。

The cabless platform is redefining vehicle architecture, and with it the load distribution, reliability and by-wire interface specs of mining axles; the category has moved from prototypes to volume delivery (Tonly's 800 units) — the spec window for mining-axle supply is open now, and missing the platform-definition stage leaves only the replacement business.

05亚洲市场Asia Markets8
东亚East Asia

韩国：2027 年起对 15 吨以上重卡设强制减排线——2030 年重型商用车平均排放较 2021–22 基准降 30%，电动/氢重卡成合规必需South Korea sets a mandatory emissions line for trucks above 15t from 2027 — heavy CV fleet-average emissions must fall 30% by 2030 vs the 2021–22 baseline, making electric and hydrogen trucks a compliance necessity10

韩国气候能源环境部 7/16 立法预告、本周媒体披露细则：重型商用车制造商的车队平均温室气体排放须在 2030 年前较 2021–2022 基准下降 30%；2027 年先适用于 15 吨以上重卡与牵引车，随后扩至大中型客车、再到中型卡车与自卸车。配套机制：电动/氢/混动「超级积分」延至 2029 年，新增氢内燃机（H2-ICE）激励；罚则初期低额、2031 年全面强制后逐步加码；试点「间接减排」——车企自用可再生电力最多抵扣 5% 义务。2035 年远期目标为较 2018 年降 53–61%。属制造商车队平均值法规（供给侧），非购车补贴。Korea's Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment pre-announced the rule on 16 Jul, with details reported this week: heavy-CV makers must cut fleet-average greenhouse-gas emissions 30% by 2030 against a 2021–2022 baseline; from 2027 the rule first applies to trucks and tractors above 15 tonnes, then extends to large/medium buses and later to medium trucks and dump trucks. Mechanics: super credits for electric/hydrogen/hybrid vehicles run to 2029, hydrogen-ICE incentives are added, penalties start light and step up after full enforcement in 2031, and a pilot lets makers offset up to 5% of the obligation with self-supplied renewable power. The 2035 goal is a 53–61% cut versus 2018. This is a supply-side, manufacturer fleet-average regulation — not a purchase subsidy.

关键数据Key data2030 年 −30%（对 2021–22 基准）−30% by 2030 (vs 2021–22 baseline)2027 年起适用 ≥15 吨重卡/牵引车From 2027: trucks/tractors ≥15t2035 年 −53~61%（对 2018）2035: −53–61% (vs 2018)
对业务的含义Implication

韩国首次给 15 吨以上重卡画强制减排线——现代商用等本土 OEM 放量电动/氢重卡从战略选项变成合规必需，韩国市场的 e-axle 化时间表被法规锁定；2031 年前罚则弱，传导偏中期、属领先指标。

Korea's first mandatory emissions line for trucks above 15t turns electric/hydrogen HDV volume from a strategic option into a compliance requirement for Hyundai and peers, putting the market's e-axle timeline on a regulatory clock; with penalties light before 2031, the transmission is medium-term — a leading indicator.

东南亚Southeast Asia

印尼：上半年卡车批发 35,934 辆（+39% YoY）、6 月卡车零售 8,276 辆创年内单月峰值——物流复苏驱动，重卡（GVW>24t）细分仍待分类表Indonesia: H1 truck wholesales at 35,934 (+39% YoY) and June truck retail of 8,276 a year-high month — logistics-led recovery; the heavy-truck (GVW>24t) split still pending11

GAIKINDO 口径（just-auto 及当地媒体转述）：上半年卡车批发 35,934 辆（+39% YoY，2025 年同期 25,778 辆）、卡车零售 35,932 辆（+28% YoY）；6 月卡车零售 8,276 辆为年内单月峰值，当地报道归因物流业回暖。品牌盘：三菱扶桑 H1 批发 17,535 辆（+53.3% YoY）居首，五十铃 13,890 辆（+23.2% YoY）次之。上期锚点交代：GVW>24t 重卡细分仍未公开单列，会员口径分类表留待月度深更。CV 全口径 H1 114,154 辆（+39% YoY）上期已报。On GAIKINDO data (via just-auto and local media): H1 truck wholesales reached 35,934 (+39% YoY vs 25,778 in H1 2025) and truck retail 35,932 (+28% YoY); June truck retail of 8,276 was the year's highest month, attributed locally to a logistics upturn. By brand, Mitsubishi Fuso led H1 wholesales at 17,535 (+53.3% YoY), with Isuzu at 13,890 (+23.2% YoY). Last issue's anchor addressed: the GVW>24t heavy-truck split is still not published — the member-level category tables await the monthly deep-dive. The full CV basis (H1 114,154, +39% YoY) was reported last issue.

关键数据Key dataH1 卡车批发 35,934 辆 · +39% YoYH1 truck wholesales 35,934 · +39% YoY6 月卡车零售 8,276 辆 · 年内峰值June truck retail 8,276 · year highFuso 17,535 辆 · +53.3% YoYFuso 17,535 · +53.3% YoY
直接关切Directly material对业务的含义Implication

核心市场的卡车盘 +39% 与宏观章印尼条的供给侧收紧并行——运营需求在涨、项目型需求在等细则；重卡段是否同步放量待分类表证实，中重卡配套排产可先行。

Trucks up 39% in our core market run alongside the supply-side tightening in the macro chapter — operating demand is rising while project demand waits on rules; whether heavy trucks are keeping pace awaits the category tables, but medium-heavy component scheduling can move first.

印尼：红白合作社计划的政府采购带来轻卡/皮卡订单潮——Fuso 获 20,600 台 Canter、Tata 7 万台订单在执行（轻型口径，从简）Indonesia: government purchasing for the Red-White cooperatives programme drives a light-truck/pickup order wave — Fuso booked 20,600 Canters and Tata's 70,000-unit order is executing (light-CV basis, kept brief)12

Nikkei Asia 7/22 报道（需订阅；量化经当地媒体与厂方公告交叉验证）：Prabowo 红白村社合作社计划（Kopdes Merah Putih，全国逾 8 万个合作社）的政府采购带动轻型卡车与皮卡批量订单——三菱扶桑获 20,600 台 Canter 订单、2026 年 12 月前交付、全部在雅加达 Cakung 工厂本地组装；Tata Motors 的 35,000 台 Yodha 皮卡＋35,000 台 Ultra T.7 轻卡订单（2 月签约）执行中；Mahindra 另获 35,000 台皮卡。采购主体为国企 Agrinas。均为轻型车，对重卡/矿卡配套无直接拉动，按轻型口径从简收录。Per Nikkei Asia on 22 Jul (paywalled; figures cross-checked against local media and OEM statements): government purchasing under Prabowo's Kopdes Merah Putih village-cooperative programme (80,000+ cooperatives nationwide) is driving bulk light-truck and pickup orders — Mitsubishi Fuso booked 20,600 Canters for delivery by December 2026, all assembled at its Cakung plant in Jakarta; Tata Motors' February order of 35,000 Yodha pickups plus 35,000 Ultra T.7 light trucks is executing; Mahindra took another 35,000 pickups. The buyer is state-owned Agrinas. All are light vehicles with no direct pull for heavy-truck or mining-truck supply — recorded briefly on the light-CV basis.

关键数据Key dataFuso Canter 20,600 台 · Cakung 组装Fuso Canter 20,600 · Cakung-builtTata 70,000 台执行中 · Mahindra 35,000 台Tata 70,000 executing · Mahindra 35,000轻型口径 · 从简Light-CV basis · kept brief
对业务的含义Implication

信号在竞争格局而非量本身：TKDN 的政治压力没有挡住印度产整车批量进入，本地组装（Fuso）与整车进口（Tata/Mahindra）并行拿单——中国 OEM 在印尼这轮政府采购中缺位，是出海盘的对照项。

The signal is competitive, not volumetric: TKDN politics did not keep Indian-built vehicles out, with local assembly (Fuso) and imports (Tata/Mahindra) winning side by side — Chinese OEMs' absence from this procurement round is the counterpoint for the overseas-expansion chapter.

马来/泰国/菲律宾：总市场回暖、商用车面偏冷——马 CV 上半年 −11%、菲 CV −11%、泰全年产量预测下调 3.3%Malaysia/Thailand/Philippines: headline markets warm while the CV side stays cool — Malaysian CV −11% in H1, Philippine CV −11%, Thailand cuts its full-year production forecast 3.3%13

马来西亚（MAA）：上半年总市场 385,353 辆（+3% YoY）、6 月 69,785 辆（+32% YoY，2025 年 6 月 52,790 辆低基数）；商用车上半年 23,718 辆（−11% YoY），皮卡受柴油补贴改革拖累；MAA 7/21 把全年 TIV 预测上调至 80 万辆，但商用车全年预期约 56,000 辆、走弱（上期留白锚点交代：MAA CV 细分已出）。泰国（FTI，7/24）：6 月产量 120,391 辆（−7.55% YoY）、国内销量 58,724 辆（+17.26% YoY，EV 乘用车驱动）；上半年产量 717,212 辆（−1.04% YoY）；全年产量预测下调 3.33% 至 145 万辆（归因地区冲突、对美贸易壁垒与排放标准，宏观章 301 关税条并读）；6 月皮卡/卡车细分未随英文转载发布（上期锚点交代：FTI 已出、卡车细分仍缺，留待月度深更）。菲律宾（CAMPI-TMA）：上半年总市场 204,557 辆（−11.4% YoY）、商用车 164,054 辆（−11% YoY，2025 年同期 185,265 辆）；6 月总市场 37,231 辆（−8% YoY）、商用车 29,170 辆（+8.7% MoM，YoY 未单列）。Malaysia (MAA): H1 total market 385,353 (+3% YoY); June 69,785 (+32% YoY off a low base of 52,790 in June 2025); commercial vehicles 23,718 in H1 (−11% YoY), with pickups dragged by diesel-subsidy reform; on 21 Jul the MAA raised its full-year TIV forecast to 800,000 while expecting full-year CV of only ~56,000, weakening (last issue's blank anchor addressed: the MAA CV split is now out). Thailand (FTI, 24 Jul): June production 120,391 (−7.55% YoY); domestic sales 58,724 (+17.26% YoY, EV passenger-car led); H1 production 717,212 (−1.04% YoY); the full-year production forecast was cut 3.33% to 1.45m (citing regional conflict, US trade barriers and emissions rules); the June pickup/truck split was not in the English releases (anchor addressed: FTI is out, the truck split still missing — monthly deep-dive). Philippines (CAMPI-TMA): H1 total market 204,557 (−11.4% YoY); CV 164,054 (−11% YoY vs 185,265 a year earlier); June total 37,231 (−8% YoY), CV 29,170 (+8.7% MoM; YoY not itemised).

关键数据Key data马 CV H1 23,718 辆 · −11% YoYMY CV H1 23,718 · −11% YoY菲 CV H1 164,054 辆 · −11% YoYPH CV H1 164,054 · −11% YoY泰全年产量预测降至 145 万辆TH full-year output cut to 1.45m
马来西亚 · MAAMalaysia · MAACV H1 23,718 辆 · −11% YoYCV H1 23,718 · −11% YoY全年 TIV 上调至 80 万辆 · CV 预期约 5.6 万辆TIV forecast to 800k · CV ~56k
泰国 · FTIThailand · FTIH1 产量 717,212 辆 · −1.04% YoYH1 output 717,212 · −1.04% YoY全年产量预测 −3.33% 至 145 万辆Output forecast −3.33% to 1.45m
菲律宾 · CAMPIPhilippines · CAMPICV H1 164,054 辆 · −11% YoYCV H1 164,054 · −11% YoY6 月总市场 37,231 辆 · −8% YoYJune total 37,231 · −8% YoY
对业务的含义Implication

三国方向一致：乘用车/EV 回暖、商用车受信贷与补贴改革压制——马来 6 月 +32% 是低基数下的总市场口径，不能当 CV 引用。东南亚配套盘除印尼外整体偏防守。

One direction across three markets: passenger/EV demand warms while CVs sit under credit and subsidy-reform pressure — Malaysia's +32% June print is a low-base, total-market figure, not a CV number. Outside Indonesia, the Southeast Asian component book stays defensive.

新加坡：Cat C COE 7/22 第二次投标回落 S$1,111 至 S$93,889——历史高位小幅回吐Singapore: the Cat C COE eased S$1,111 to S$93,889 at the 22 Jul second tender — a modest pullback from the record14

7/22 第二次投标，Cat C（货车与巴士）COE 报 S$93,889，较 7/8 创下的历史新高 S$95,000 回落 S$1,111；投标 430 份对配额 301 张（上期锚点延续：车队准入成本仍处历史高位区间）。At the 22 Jul second tender the Cat C COE (goods vehicles and buses) closed at S$93,889, down S$1,111 from the record S$95,000 set on 8 Jul, on 430 bids against a quota of 301 (continuing last issue's anchor: fleet entry costs remain near record highs).

关键数据Key dataCat C S$93,889 · −S$1,111Cat C S$93,889 · −S$1,111430 份投标 对 301 张配额430 bids vs 301 quota
对业务的含义Implication

高位小幅回吐、方向未变——新车配套受抑、维保后市场受撑的判断维持。

A small give-back at the highs changes nothing directionally — new-vehicle supply stays suppressed and the maintenance aftermarket supported.

南亚South Asia

巴基斯坦：FY2025-26 卡车＋巴士 7,439 辆（+67% YoY）——低基数强反弹，方向信号大于体量Pakistan: FY2025-26 trucks plus buses at 7,439 (+67% YoY) — a strong low-base rebound where the direction matters more than the size15

PAMA 财年口径（2025.7–2026.6，媒体转载，月表见 PAMA 官网）：卡车＋巴士合计 7,439 辆（+67% YoY，转载未给卡车/巴士拆分）；全行业销量 +39%。绝对量仍小，但确认商用车需求从谷底回升。另见出海章：东风股份披露其对巴基斯坦发动机出口上半年 +155% YoY。On PAMA's fiscal-year basis (Jul 2025–Jun 2026, via media reposts; monthly tables on PAMA's site): trucks plus buses totalled 7,439 (+67% YoY; no truck/bus split in the reposts), within industry-wide sales up 39%. The absolute base stays small, but the CV rebound off the trough is confirmed. See the overseas chapter: Dongfeng Automobile reports its H1 engine exports to Pakistan up 155% YoY.

关键数据Key data卡车＋巴士 7,439 辆 · +67% YoYTrucks+buses 7,439 · +67% YoY全行业 +39%（FY26）Industry +39% (FY26)
对业务的含义Implication

南亚第二市场从低谷回暖——在以 CKD 与进口件为主的市场结构下，配套机会先出现在动力与桥类零部件出口，而非整车配套。

South Asia's second market is recovering off its lows — in a CKD- and import-led structure, the component opportunity shows up first in powertrain and axle-parts exports rather than vehicle-line supply.

中亚Central Asia

哈萨克/乌兹别克：本地组装产能在爬坡——哈 Q1 汽车产量 +36.8%（含 SemAZ/KAMAZ 卡车线），乌 1–4 月卡车产量 +30.4%Kazakhstan/Uzbekistan: local assembly keeps ramping — Kazakh Q1 vehicle output +36.8% (incl. SemAZ/KAMAZ truck lines), Uzbek Jan–Apr truck output +30.4%16

哈萨克斯坦：KAU 口径上半年新车 105,886 辆（+0.9% YoY，含乘用车总口径、无商用车细分，不作 CV 引用）、6 月 21,861 辆（+12.5% YoY）；产量侧一季度全国 45,260 辆（+36.8% YoY），其中 SemAZ 卡车 627 辆、KAMAZ-Engineering 135 辆，全年产量目标 19 万辆。乌兹别克斯坦：国家统计口径 1–4 月卡车产量 1,867 辆（+30.4% YoY，2025 年同期 1,432 辆）。中国海关 6 月/上半年分国别重卡出口明细未发布，出口反推口径待 8 月回填。Kazakhstan: on KAU data, H1 new-vehicle sales reached 105,886 (+0.9% YoY — a total-market figure including passenger cars, no CV split, not cited as CV) and June 21,861 (+12.5% YoY); on the output side, Q1 national production hit 45,260 (+36.8% YoY), including 627 SemAZ trucks and 135 from KAMAZ-Engineering, against a 190k full-year target. Uzbekistan: state statistics put Jan–Apr truck output at 1,867 (+30.4% YoY vs 1,432 a year earlier). China Customs' June/H1 country-level HDV export detail is unpublished; the export-inference basis backfills in August.

关键数据Key data哈 Q1 产量 45,260 辆 · +36.8% YoYKZ Q1 output 45,260 · +36.8% YoY哈 H1 总市场 105,886 辆 · +0.9%（非 CV 口径）KZ H1 total 105,886 · +0.9% (not CV)乌 1–4 月卡车 1,867 辆 · +30.4% YoYUZ Jan–Apr trucks 1,867 · +30.4% YoY
对业务的含义Implication

中亚的渠道结构在变：总市场持平而本地组装产量高速爬坡——整车出口正让位于 CKD，连接件/车轴配套的入口从贸易商转向组装厂；品牌构成待海关分国别数据回填后确认。

Central Asia's channel structure is shifting: flat headline markets against fast-ramping local assembly mean CBU exports are giving way to CKD — the entry point for coupling/axle supply moves from traders to assembly plants; the brand mix awaits Customs' country-level data.

西亚 / 中东West Asia / Middle East

土耳其：OSD 上半年商用车产量 +10%、重型 +9%，而重型内需 −8%——产能靠出口消化的剪刀差Türkiye: OSD H1 CV production +10% and heavy CV +9%, against heavy domestic sales of −8% — a scissors gap cleared by exports17

OSD 上半年月报（7/11 发布，转载口径；OSD 未随稿给重型绝对辆数）：总产量 663,397 辆（−6% YoY，乘用车 −16%）；商用车产量 +10%、其中重型商用车 +9%、卡车 +7%（均为增速口径）；商用车出口量 +8%，总出口额 208 亿美元（+4%）。内需端：重型商用车国内销量 −8% YoY，总市场上半年 577,583 辆（−8.2% YoY）。上期已引商用车产量 +10% 的头条数，本条补内需与出口的分化细节。From OSD's H1 monthly report (published 11 Jul, via reposts; OSD gave no heavy-segment absolute counts): total output 663,397 (−6% YoY, passenger cars −16%); CV production +10%, within it heavy CV +9% and trucks +7% (growth rates); CV export volumes +8%, total export value $20.8bn (+4%). Domestically, heavy-CV sales fell 8% YoY within a total H1 market of 577,583 (−8.2% YoY). Last issue cited the +10% CV headline; this entry adds the domestic-versus-export split.

关键数据Key dataCV 产量 +10% · 重型 +9%（H1 增速口径）CV output +10% · heavy +9% (H1 rates)重型内需 −8% YoYHeavy domestic sales −8% YoYCV 出口量 +8% · 出口额 $208 亿 +4%CV exports +8% · value $20.8bn +4%
对业务的含义Implication

Ford Trucks、奔驰 Aksaray 等产能靠欧洲/中东出口消化、本地更换需求被高利率压住——土耳其作为西亚支点市场，配套机会在出口车型的定点上，而非本地渠道。

Ford Trucks, Mercedes Aksaray and peers are clearing capacity through European/Middle-East exports while high rates suppress local replacement — in this West Asian anchor market, the component opportunity sits in export-model sourcing, not the domestic channel.

06中国 OEM 出海China OEM Overseas Expansion2

潍柴把全球合作伙伴大会开到河内：在越 40 年、动力产品累计销量超 16 万台——电力能源业务上半年收入 +30%，成出海新增长极Weichai holds its global partner conference in Hanoi: 40 years in Vietnam, 160,000+ power products sold — its power-energy business, up 30% in H1, becomes the new overseas growth pole18

7/22 潍柴 2026 全球合作伙伴大会在越南河内举行，近 400 名全球伙伴参会（厂方活动稿，剥离宣传话术、取可核数据）：潍柴进入越南 40 年、在越动力产品累计销量超 16 万台，居越南客车动力、船舶动力份额第一（厂方口径）。会上首发微电网解决方案（混合能源电站/移动光伏/储能/SOFC），点名偏远矿区智能化升级等场景。经营面：2025 年发电产品全球销量突破 10 万台、居全球前三（厂方口径）；2026 上半年电力能源业务收入 +30% YoY、数据中心产品收入 +140% YoY。Weichai's 2026 global partner conference convened in Hanoi on 22 Jul with nearly 400 partners (an OEM event release — promotional language stripped, verifiable figures kept): 40 years in Vietnam, over 160,000 power products sold cumulatively, and the leading share in Vietnamese bus and marine power (company basis). It debuted a microgrid solution (hybrid power stations, mobile PV, storage, SOFC), naming remote-mine intelligent upgrades among target scenarios. Operationally: 2025 global genset-product sales passed 100,000 units, a global top-three position (company basis); H1 2026 power-energy revenue rose 30% YoY, with data-centre product revenue up 140% YoY.

关键数据Key data在越 40 年 · 累计超 16 万台40 yrs in Vietnam · 160k+ units电力能源 H1 收入 +30% YoYPower-energy revenue +30% YoY (H1)数据中心产品收入 +140% YoYData-centre products +140% YoY
对业务的含义Implication

中国动力总成在东南亚最深的属地化样本把年度大会放到河内，越南是其东南亚支点；矿区微电网与发电业务的扩张服务矿山客户的电动化改造，与矿用车章的矿卡纯电化同向——零部件跟着能源方案一起进场。

China's deepest powertrain-localisation case in Southeast Asia staged its annual conference in Hanoi — Vietnam is its regional pivot; the mine-microgrid and genset push serves mining customers' electrification, running in the same direction as the mining chapter's battery-electric trucks, with components entering alongside the energy solution.

东风股份半年预增：出口整车 1.3 万辆（+81.4% YoY）、马来西亚一次交付 830 台轻卡——轻型整车出海与动力件出口双线放量（轻型口径，从简）Dongfeng Automobile guides H1 profit up: 13,000 vehicles exported (+81.4% YoY) and an 830-unit light-truck delivery to Malaysia — light-vehicle exports and powertrain-parts exports expanding in tandem (light-CV basis, kept brief)19

东风汽车股份（轻型商用车企业，按轻型口径从简收录）7/24 业绩预增公告：上半年归母净利 1.2–1.3 亿元（+23.45%~+33.74% YoY）；新能源整车 1.9 万辆（+100.3% YoY）、出口整车 1.3 万辆（+81.4% YoY）、发动机 16 万台（+26% YoY，其中东风康明斯 13.4 万台、+18.4% YoY）。辖区落点：马来西亚一次交付 830 台轻卡专用车；东风康明斯对越南发动机出口上半年 +94% YoY、对巴基斯坦 +155% YoY（公司口径，绝对量未披露）。Dongfeng Automobile Co. (a light-CV maker, recorded briefly on the light-CV basis) pre-announced on 24 Jul: H1 net profit of RMB 120–130m (+23.45% to +33.74% YoY); NEV sales 19k (+100.3% YoY), vehicle exports 13k (+81.4% YoY), engine sales 160k (+26% YoY, of which Dongfeng Cummins 134k, +18.4% YoY). Territory touchpoints: a single 830-unit special-purpose light-truck delivery to Malaysia; Dongfeng Cummins engine exports up 94% YoY to Vietnam and 155% YoY to Pakistan in H1 (company basis, volumes undisclosed).

关键数据Key data出口整车 1.3 万辆 · +81.4% YoYExports 13k · +81.4% YoY马来西亚一次交付 830 台轻卡830 light trucks to Malaysia in one delivery发动机出口：越南 +94% · 巴基斯坦 +155%Engine exports: VN +94% · PK +155%
对业务的含义Implication

轻型整车出海与动力零部件出口在双线放量、落点就在辖区（马/越/巴）——中国零部件跟随整车与动力总成一起出海的路径样本，重卡与车桥线可类比参照。

Light-vehicle and powertrain-parts exports are expanding on parallel tracks, landing squarely in our territory (Malaysia/Vietnam/Pakistan) — a template for Chinese components riding out with vehicles and powertrains, directly analogous for the heavy-truck and axle lines.

来源Sources
1新华社（国新办发布会） · 交通运输部 · 新浪财经（券商出口数据转载）Xinhua (SCIO briefing) · Ministry of Transport · Sina Finance (brokerage repost) 新华社 220 亿置换资金交通部 上半年货运量交通部/发改委 置换通知原文1–5 月重卡出口（转载）2026-07-21 / 23
2财政部 · 海关总署 · 税务总局（2026 年第 20 号公告，税务总局政策法规库）MOF · GACC · STA (Announcement No. 20 of 2026, STA regulation library) 公告原文（政策法规库）2026-07-16（9/1 生效）
3Bank Indonesia · Jakarta Post · Antara · BigMint（HBA）Bank Indonesia · Jakarta Post · Antara · BigMint (HBA) BI 7/22 决议新闻稿JP 矿权裁决政府回应Antara 镍配额只补冶炼缺口HBA 7 月下半期2026-07-11 / 21 / 22
4白宫 · USTR · Baker McKenzie（生效解读） · VnExpress（越南盾）White House · USTR · Baker McKenzie (effectiveness note) · VnExpress (dong) 白宫 301 行政行动USTR 最终行动 FRN（PDF）Baker McKenzie 解读VnExpress 越南盾 7/202026-07-20 / 23 / 24
5卓众商用车（解放×安能交付活动稿）BJCV (Jiefang × ANE delivery event release) bjcv.com 交付仪式2026-07-24
6Global TrailerGlobal Trailer SAF-Holland 换帅2026-07-20
7Global TrailerGlobal Trailer ECO Air 破 20 万台2026-07-22
8中国商用汽车网（经济参考报，同花顺 iFinD 统计）cv.ce.cn (Economic Information Daily, iFinD data) 零部件半年预告分化2026-07-24
9International MiningInternational Mining SANY SKT145Ei 详解2026-07-23
10Eco-Business · KED Global（韩国气候能源环境部立法预告）Eco-Business · KED Global (MoCEE pre-announcement) Eco-Business 减排新规KED Global 预报道2026-07-14 / 22
11just-auto（GAIKINDO 数据） · Jawa Pos · GoodStatsjust-auto (GAIKINDO data) · Jawa Pos · GoodStats just-auto 印尼 6 月/H1Jawa Pos 卡车 H1GoodStats 卡车月度2026-07-15 / 21
12Nikkei Asia（需订阅） · Bisnis Indonesia · Tata Motors 官方Nikkei Asia (paywalled) · Bisnis Indonesia · Tata Motors Nikkei 印尼订单潮Bisnis：Fuso 20,600 台Tata 官方 7 万台订单 （Nikkei 需订阅）(Nikkei paywalled)2026-07-22
13just-auto（MAA/CAMPI 数据） · Paultan · 新华社（FTI） · ZigWheelsjust-auto (MAA/CAMPI data) · Paultan · Xinhua (FTI) · ZigWheels just-auto 马来 6 月Paultan MAA H1 与全年预测新华社 泰国 FTI 6 月just-auto 菲律宾ZigWheels CAMPI H12026-07-21 / 22 / 24
14Motorist.sg（LTA 投标结果）Motorist.sg (LTA tender results) 7/22 第二次投标详报2026-07-22
15MM News（PAMA 数据转载） · PAMAMM News (PAMA repost) · PAMA FY26 全行业与 CV（转载）PAMA 月度产销表2026-07-14
16Qazinform（KAU 转载） · Times of Central Asia · UzDaily（统计转载）Qazinform (KAU repost) · Times of Central Asia · UzDaily (statistics repost) 哈萨克 H1 销量（KAU）哈萨克 Q1 产量乌兹别克 1–4 月卡车产量2026-07-13
17Teknotalk（OSD 转载） · SteelOrbis · OSDTeknotalk (OSD repost) · SteelOrbis · OSD OSD H1 产量与出口（转载）SteelOrbis H1 销量OSD 官方月报入口2026-07-11
18卓众商用车（潍柴活动稿）BJCV (Weichai event release) 潍柴河内伙伴大会2026-07-24
19中国商用汽车网（东风股份公告）cv.ce.cn (Dongfeng Automobile filing) 东风股份半年预增2026-07-24