行业动态周报Weekly Industry Brief

重型商用车 · 挂车 · 矿用车 情报周报车轴 / 第五轮座 / 连接件 视角 · 亚洲 Heavy CV · Trailers · Mining Vehicles IntelligenceAxle / fifth-wheel / coupling lens · Asia

2026 · W30
2026-07-13 → 07-19
本周主线Bottom Line

中国的宏观与重卡走的是两条线：统计局 7/15 半年报给出 Q2 GDP 4.3%（3.5 年最低）、上半年固投 −5.7%，同一周的分企业数据里重卡前五合计市占超 90%、半年卖出 66.1 万辆——这轮重卡景气靠置换政策与电动化，不靠基建：6 月新能源重卡渗透率约 45%，单月口径已越过 11 部门方案定给 2030 年的 40% 目标线。海外两件事分别改写供给和需求：印尼宪法法院 7/16 裁定矿权「直接指定」有条件违宪，矿权分配改走竞争遴选，镍煤新项目的运力需求节奏多了一个变量；越南财政部 7/15 下令下半年公共投资放款冲全年 100%，慢放款单位的资本将被重新划拨——工程车需求有望在 H2 后置放量。

China's macro and its heavy-truck market are on two different tracks: the NBS half-year release on 15 Jul showed Q2 GDP at 4.3% (the weakest in 3.5 years) and H1 fixed-asset investment at −5.7%, yet the same week's company-level data had the top five HDV makers holding over 90% share of a 661k-unit half. This truck cycle runs on scrappage policy and electrification, not on infrastructure: June NEV heavy-truck penetration reached ~45%, already past the 40% target the 11-ministry plan set for 2030 (single-month basis). Overseas, two events rewrote supply and demand respectively: Indonesia's Constitutional Court ruled on 16 Jul that direct appointment of mining permits is conditionally unconstitutional, moving licence allocation to competitive selection and adding a variable to the timing of nickel/coal haulage demand; and Vietnam's Ministry of Finance ordered on 15 Jul that public-investment disbursement hit 100% of the annual plan, with capital clawed back from slow spenders — construction-truck demand is set to load into H2.

宏观Macro

中国投资端在收缩：Q2 GDP +4.3% YoY、H1 固投 −5.7%、基建 −2.4%，但采矿业投资 +5.9% 是矿卡线的正向分项；柴油 7/17 每吨上调 290 元（7/3 曾降 915 元，月内净降 625 元），LPR 连续 14 个月未动。印尼继续收：RKAB 维持 260 百万湿吨、BI-Rate 5.75%（5 月以来累计 +100bps），7/21–22 例会是下一节点。

China's investment side is contracting: Q2 GDP +4.3% YoY, H1 FAI −5.7%, infrastructure −2.4% — though mining investment at +5.9% is the one positive line for mining trucks. Diesel rose RMB 290/t on 17 Jul (after a 915/t cut on 3 Jul; net −625/t within the month) and the LPR has now been flat for 14 months. Indonesia keeps tightening: RKAB held at 260m wmt, BI-Rate at 5.75% (+100bps since May), with the 21–22 Jul meeting the next node.

信号Signal

印尼宪法法院 7/16 把矿权「直接指定」改成竞争遴选——矿权发放节奏成为镍煤运力需求的新变量，存量矿权是否溯及待细则。越南财政部 7/15 给出全年放款 100% 的硬目标并启动资本重划拨。中国矿卡厂商开始做整车再制造（北方股份首台 NTE240 交付德兴铜矿），矿用车轴从一次配套走向多轮翻新。

Indonesia's Constitutional Court on 16 Jul replaced direct appointment of mining permits with competitive selection — permit pacing is now a live variable for nickel/coal haulage demand, with retroactivity on existing licences pending implementing rules. Vietnam's MoF set a hard 100% full-year disbursement target on 15 Jul and began reallocating capital. And China's mining-truck OEMs have started full-vehicle rebuild programs (NHL delivered its first remanufactured NTE240 to Dexing Copper Mine), moving mining axles from one-shot supply toward multi-cycle rebuilds.

需求Demand

中国重卡「一超多强」：重汽半年 18.9 万辆（+26.7% YoY）居首、前五市占超 90%，徐工靠矿山渣土场景 +57%。辖区三大市场同向走强：印尼 H1 商用车批发 +39% YoY（114,154 辆）、印度 Q1 CV 约 26.5 万辆创同期新高（+18.3% YoY，SIAM）、越南 H1 CV +28%。新加坡 Cat C COE 拍到 S$95,000 历史新高，是准入成本压制换车的反面信号。

China HDV is 'one super, several strong': Sinotruk led H1 at 189k units (+26.7% YoY) with the top five above 90% share; XCMG grew 57% on mining and muck-hauling. Three markets in the territory strengthened together: Indonesia H1 CV wholesales +39% YoY (114,154 units), India Q1 CV at ~265k a record for the quarter (+18.3% YoY, SIAM), Vietnam H1 CV +28%. Singapore's Cat C COE hit an all-time high of S$95,000 — an entry-cost signal that suppresses fleet replacement.

结论Verdict

首要监测项三个：7/21–22 BI 决议、7/31 印尼 RKAB 补充批复与宪法法院裁决的过渡细则、8 月中旬中国 7 月固投与新能源重卡渗透率（是否站稳 45%）。产品线上盯两条：电驱桥替代进入以量验证阶段；矿卡再制造打开车轴翻新与全生命周期配套的新入口。

Three items to watch first: the 21–22 Jul BI decision; Indonesia's 31 Jul supplementary RKAB approvals plus transition rules for the court ruling; and mid-August China data (July FAI, whether NEV heavy-truck penetration holds 45%). On the product line, two threads: e-axle substitution is now a volume story, and mining-truck remanufacturing opens a new entry point for axle rebuilds and lifecycle supply.

本周要点Key Takeaways
01宏观与政策环境Macro & Policy3
已传导Transmitted置信 高Confidence High

中国半年数据的反差：Q2 GDP 4.3%、固投 −5.7%，重卡 +22.6%——景气由置换与电动化政策驱动，不靠基建；柴油 7/17 回调 +290 元/吨China's half-year contrast: Q2 GDP 4.3%, FAI −5.7%, heavy trucks +22.6% — a policy- and electrification-driven cycle, not an infrastructure one; diesel +RMB 290/t on 17 Jul1

国家统计局 7/15 发布半年报：Q2 GDP 同比 +4.3%（2022 年 Q4 以来最低，低于 4.5% 预期）；上半年固定资产投资 226,370 亿元、同比 −5.7%，其中基建 −2.4%、制造业 −1.2%、采矿业 +5.9%。同一周的两个价格信号：发改委 7/17 起柴油每吨上调 290 元（上期锚点交代——7/3 曾每吨下调 915 元，本轮小幅回补，月内净降 625 元/吨，「预期搁浅或小幅下调」的方向判断被证伪但幅度小）；7/20 LPR 连续第 14 个月持稳（1 年期 3.0%、5 年期以上 3.5%）。对照：上半年重型货车 66.1 万辆（+22.59% YoY，中汽协，上期已报），6 月新能源重卡渗透率约 45%——交通运输部等 11 部门 6/16 印发的新能源重卡推广实施方案（文件全名待核实）定下 2030 年新车渗透率 40%、保有量超 160 万辆、约 3,000 座充换电站与 3 万公里零碳干线，零碳通道试点名单未出（上期碳达峰锚点延续跟踪）。The NBS half-year release (15 Jul): Q2 GDP +4.3% YoY (weakest since Q4 2022, below the 4.5% consensus); H1 fixed-asset investment RMB 22.64tn, −5.7% YoY, with infrastructure −2.4%, manufacturing −1.2% and mining +5.9%. Two price signals the same week: the NDRC raised diesel by RMB 290/t from 17 Jul (addressing last issue's anchor — after the RMB 915/t cut on 3 Jul this is a partial claw-back, net −625/t within the month; the 'flat or small cut' expectation was wrong on direction but small in size); and the LPR held for a 14th straight month on 20 Jul (1-yr 3.0%, 5-yr+ 3.5%). Against this, H1 heavy trucks reached 661k (+22.59% YoY, CAAM, reported last issue) and June NEV heavy-truck penetration hit ~45% — the implementation plan issued 16 Jun by MOT and 10 other ministries (full document title to be verified) targets 40% new-sale penetration and a 1.6m-unit fleet by 2030, with ~3,000 charging/swap stations and 30,000 km of zero-carbon freight corridors; the corridor pilot list is still pending (carbon-plan anchor carried forward).

关键数据（事实层）Key data (facts)Q2 GDP +4.3% YoY（3.5 年最低）Q2 GDP +4.3% YoY (3.5-yr low)H1 固投 226,370 亿元 · −5.7% YoYH1 FAI RMB 22.64tn · −5.7% YoY基建 −2.4% · 采矿业 +5.9% YoYInfra −2.4% · mining +5.9% YoY柴油 7/17 +290 元/吨（月内净 −625）Diesel +RMB 290/t on 17 Jul (net −625 in-month)
事件Event

统计局 7/15 半年报：Q2 GDP 4.3%、固投 −5.7%；发改委 7/17 柴油上调 290 元/吨；LPR 持稳。NBS half-year data on 15 Jul: Q2 GDP 4.3%, FAI −5.7%; NDRC diesel +RMB 290/t from 17 Jul; LPR flat.

机制Mechanism

固投与基建收缩直接压工程车/自卸需求；重卡大盘 +22.6% 的动力来自「两新」置换与新能源替代，是政策现金流而非投资拉动；柴油月内净降 625 元/吨利好在营车队 TCO。Contracting FAI and infrastructure weigh directly on construction/tipper demand; the +22.6% HDV market is powered by scrappage-for-new and NEV substitution — policy cash flow, not investment; the net RMB 625/t in-month diesel cut helps operating fleets' TCO.

市场Market

下半年公路车（牵引/载货）购置有政策托底、工程车与自卸承压的分化或延续；采矿业投资 +5.9% 对矿卡需求是可验证的正向分项。The split likely persists into H2 — policy underpins on-road tractors and cargo trucks while construction and tipper segments stay pressured; mining investment at +5.9% is a verifiable positive for mining trucks.

业务Business

车轴/连接件配套需求跟着置换与电动化走，电驱桥对传统车轴的替代仍是首要结构变量；工程车相关车桥配套短期难有增量。Axle/coupling demand tracks replacement and electrification — e-axle substitution of conventional axles remains the top structural variable; construction-vehicle axle volumes are unlikely to grow near term.

净判断Net

中国重卡景气与宏观投资脱钩已经发生：下半年看政策（置换+新能源），不看基建。The decoupling of China's HDV cycle from macro investment has already happened: H2 is about policy (scrappage + NEV), not infrastructure.

前提Premise「两新」补贴与 11 部门方案执行不退坡；固投负增长不进一步失速。Scrappage subsidies and the 11-ministry plan keep executing; the FAI contraction does not deepen sharply.
证伪信号Falsifier7–8 月重卡销量环比转负或新能源渗透率回落至 40% 以下，「政策驱动」判断弱化；固投跌幅明显收窄则分化逻辑反转。If Jul–Aug HDV sales turn negative MoM or NEV penetration falls back below 40%, the policy-driven read weakens; a marked narrowing of the FAI decline would reverse the divergence logic.
追踪锚点Track统计局 7 月固投（8 月中旬）；第一商用车网 7 月重卡销量与新能源渗透率；下轮成品油调价窗口（约 7 月底）。NBS July FAI (mid-August); CVWorld July HDV sales and NEV penetration; the next fuel-price window (~end July).
领先指标Leading置信 中Confidence Mid

印尼矿权规则重写：宪法法院 7/16 裁定「直接指定」有条件违宪，矿权分配改竞争遴选——RKAB 260 百万湿吨不放宽、DMO 价差走阔（货源型＋准入型传导）Indonesia rewrites mining-permit rules: the Constitutional Court ruled direct appointment conditionally unconstitutional on 16 Jul, moving allocation to competitive selection — RKAB held at 260m wmt, the DMO spread widens (freight-source + access transmission)2

宪法法院 7/16 部分支持对矿业法修订案的违宪审查：向合作社、宗教组织、大学等「直接指定」优先矿区（WIUP/WIUPK）的条款被裁定有条件违宪，今后此类主体须经「参数明确、客观、透明、可问责」的遴选程序竞争获取矿权（Jakarta Post 7/18 刊发；对存量矿权是否溯及、过渡期均未明确——待细则，下期追踪）。镍线维持收紧：2026 年 RKAB 基准配额约 260 百万湿吨（2025 年批复 379 百万湿吨，约 −31%），补充申请窗口 7/1–31 逐案审批、只补有国内冶炼配套的矿商——上期锚点交代：本周无全国配额上调信号，批复量待 7/31 窗口关闭后公布。煤线：HBA 7 月下半期 6,322 kcal GAR 报 $131.85/吨（对上半期 $126.58 期环比 +4.2%），对 DMO 电煤限价 $70/吨的价差扩到 $60 以上；限价修订仍在评估、法规未出（行业提案 $80–90/吨或与 HBA 挂钩）。利率：BI-Rate 5.75%（5 月以来累计 +100bps，防御卢比），7 月例会 7/21–22——政策利率仅作资金成本方向的背景，车队实际贷款利率另计。The Constitutional Court on 16 Jul partly granted a judicial review of last year's Mining Law amendment: provisions allowing direct appointment of priority mining areas (WIUP/WIUPK) to cooperatives, religious organisations and universities were ruled conditionally unconstitutional — such entities must now compete through a selection process 'with clear parameters, objective, transparent and accountable' (Jakarta Post, 18 Jul; retroactivity for existing licences and any transition period are unresolved — pending implementing rules, tracked next issue). Nickel stays tight: the 2026 baseline RKAB quota sits around 260m wmt (vs 379m approved for 2025, roughly −31%), with the supplementary window running 1–31 Jul, case-by-case and only for miners with domestic smelting — last issue's anchor addressed: no national quota-increase signal this week; approved volumes come after the window closes 31 Jul. Coal: the H2-July HBA for 6,322 kcal GAR printed $131.85/t (+4.2% vs $126.58 in H1 July), stretching the spread over the $70/t DMO cap past $60; the cap revision is still under review with no regulation issued (industry proposals: $80–90/t or HBA-linked). Rates: BI-Rate 5.75% (+100bps since May, defending the rupiah), with the July meeting on 21–22 Jul — the policy rate is background for funding-cost direction only; fleets' actual lending rates are a separate matter.

关键数据（事实层）Key data (facts)直接指定 → 竞争遴选（7/16 裁定）Direct appointment → competitive selection (ruled 16 Jul)RKAB 260 对 379 百万湿吨（约 −31%）RKAB 260m vs 379m wmt (≈ −31%)HBA $131.85 对 DMO $70（价差 >$60）HBA $131.85 vs DMO $70 (spread >$60)BI-Rate 5.75% · 例会 7/21–22BI-Rate 5.75% · meeting 21–22 Jul
事件Event

宪法法院 7/16 裁定矿权直接指定条款有条件违宪；RKAB 与 DMO 两条既有收紧线维持。The court ruled direct-appointment provisions conditionally unconstitutional on 16 Jul; the existing RKAB and DMO tightening tracks held.

机制Mechanism

准入型＋货源型——矿权分配改竞争遴选后，新矿区发放节奏或放缓、合规门槛抬高；镍配额锁住苏拉威西/北马鲁古矿石运量上限；HBA-DMO 价差走阔延续煤企出口偏好，DMO 修订落地前国内煤运积极性受抑。Access + freight-source: competitive selection likely slows new-area awards and raises compliance hurdles; the nickel quota caps ore haulage in Sulawesi/North Maluku; the widening HBA–DMO spread keeps exporting attractive, suppressing domestic coal haulage appetite until the cap revision lands.

市场Market

新矿区启动带来的矿卡/自卸增量需求或推迟；镍带 H2 运量顶被锁死的判断维持；煤带运量看 DMO 修订与 7/31 配额批复两个节点。Incremental mining-truck/tipper demand from new areas may be pushed out; the capped-ceiling read on H2 nickel-belt haulage stands; coal-belt volumes hinge on the DMO revision and the 31 Jul approvals.

业务Business

印尼矿卡与重卡车轴配套的增量项目管线短期偏谨慎，存量运营与替换需求为主。The incremental project pipeline for mining-truck and HDV axle supply in Indonesia stays cautious near term; existing operations and replacement demand carry the base.

净判断Net

印尼供给侧规则在收不在放——矿权、配额、限价三条线同向趋严，增量需求后移。Indonesia's supply-side rules are tightening, not easing — permits, quotas and the price cap are all moving stricter, deferring incremental demand.

前提Premise裁决细则不引发存量矿权大规模重审（若重审，冲击更大而非更小）；7/31 窗口不出现全国性配额放宽。Implementing rules do not trigger a mass review of existing licences (which would deepen, not soften, the impact); the 31 Jul window brings no national quota easing.
证伪信号FalsifierESDM 若在 7/31 批出大幅补充配额，或 DMO 限价快速上调至 $80–90/吨并落地，货源收紧判断需下修。Large supplementary RKAB approvals on 31 Jul, or a swift enacted DMO cap rise to $80–90/t, would force a downgrade of the tightening read.
追踪锚点Track宪法法院裁决的过渡细则与存量矿权处理；7/31 后 ESDM 补充批复量；8/1 HBA；BI 7/22 决议。Transition rules and treatment of existing licences; ESDM supplementary approvals after 31 Jul; the 1 Aug HBA; the 22 Jul BI decision.
领先指标Leading置信 中Confidence Mid

越南公共投资：H1 放款 356.9 万亿盾、完成年度计划 35.5%——财政部 7/15 下令下半年冲 100%，慢放款单位的资本将被重新划拨（工程车领先指标）Vietnam public investment: H1 disbursement of VND 356.9tn, 35.5% of the annual plan — the MoF ordered a push to 100% on 15 Jul, with capital reallocated from slow spenders (leading indicator for construction trucks)3

财政部报告：截至 6/30 公共投资放款约 356.9 万亿盾（约 136 亿美元），完成总理下达年度计划（逾 1,010 万亿盾）的 35.5%，比 2025 年同期多放款约 38.4 万亿盾（上期锚点交代：H1 终值与上期一致，6 月单月拆分未再发布）。放款偏慢归因于建材短缺、油价与运费波动推高造价、征地清场难。7/15 财政部部署下半年五项任务，明确全年放款 100% 的目标，并把慢支出部委/地方的资本重新划拨给放款效率高的项目。Per the Ministry of Finance: public-investment disbursement reached about VND 356.9tn (~$13.6bn) by 30 Jun, 35.5% of the PM-assigned annual plan of over VND 1,010tn, roughly VND 38.4tn more than the same period of 2025 (last issue's anchor addressed: the H1 figure matches; no fresh June-only split was published). Slow disbursement is attributed to building-material shortages, cost inflation from oil and freight swings, and land-clearance delays. On 15 Jul the MoF set five H2 tasks with an explicit 100% full-year disbursement target, reallocating capital from slow-spending ministries and provinces to faster projects.

关键数据（事实层）Key data (facts)H1 放款 356.9 万亿盾 · 35.5%H1 disbursed VND 356.9tn · 35.5%全年目标 100%（7/15 部署）Full-year target 100% (set 15 Jul)比 2025 同期多 38.4 万亿盾+VND 38.4tn vs H1 2025
事件Event

财政部 7/15 明确全年 100% 放款目标并启动慢放款单位的资本重划拨。The MoF set a 100% full-year disbursement target on 15 Jul and began clawing back capital from slow spenders.

机制Mechanism

年度盘子约 64.5% 要在 H2 集中放出——基建实物工作量后置，砂石/水泥运输与土方作业强度上行。About 64.5% of the annual envelope must now disburse in H2 — physical construction volumes load into the back half, lifting aggregate/cement haulage and earthworks intensity.

市场Market

H2 工程车（自卸/搅拌/牵引）需求有望放量，节奏取决于重划拨执行与建材供应；若建材短缺延续，放款到实物量的转化打折。H2 construction-truck demand (tippers, mixers, tractors) is likely to expand; pacing depends on reallocation execution and material supply — persistent shortages would dilute the pass-through from disbursement to physical volumes.

业务Business

自卸车桥与挂车连接件在越南的配套需求 H2 有望改善；中国低价 CBU 整车在高资金成本环境下继续抢份额，仍是当地基本盘的结构性挤压。Axle and coupling supply into Vietnam should improve in H2; low-priced Chinese CBU trucks keep taking share in a costly-funding environment — still the structural squeeze on the local installed base.

净判断Net

越南基建加速从「计划」进到「问责执行」：H2 放量方向明确，幅度待月度放款数据验证。Vietnam's infrastructure push has moved from plan to enforced execution: the H2 direction is clear; magnitude awaits the monthly disbursement data.

前提Premise资本重划拨机制被实际执行；建材供应不进一步恶化。The reallocation mechanism is actually enforced; material supply does not deteriorate further.
证伪信号Falsifier8–9 月放款月报若仍明显低于序时进度（月均需约 10.8%），H2 放量判断下修。If Aug–Sep monthly reports stay well below the required run-rate (~10.8%/month), the H2 expansion call gets downgraded.
追踪锚点Track财政部 8 月放款月报；VAMA 8 月商用车细分。The MoF's August disbursement report; VAMA's August CV breakdown.
02重卡 / 商用车市场Trucks & Commercial Vehicles2

中汽协上半年分企业口径：重卡「一超多强」——重汽 18.9 万辆（+26.7% YoY）居首，前五合计市占超 90%，徐工靠矿山渣土场景 +57%CAAM H1 by company: HDV is 'one super, several strong' — Sinotruk led at 189k (+26.7% YoY), the top five hold over 90% share, XCMG up 57% on mining and muck-hauling4

上半年重型货车 66.1 万辆（+22.59% YoY，总量上期已报；本周中国商用汽车网给出分企业口径）：中国重汽 188,509 辆（+26.69%）、一汽解放 116,357 辆（+18.11%）、陕汽 100,031 辆（+12.05%）、东风 97,246 辆（+11.54%）、福田 90,029 辆（+35.31%）——前五规模接近、合计市占率超 90%。第六名徐工 26,400 辆（+57.05%，增幅行业第二），主打矿山、港口、渣土场景与「车辆＋超充站＋储能＋运维」打包方案。福田新能源重卡上半年 1.4 万辆（+49.7% YoY）。H1 heavy trucks totalled 661k (+22.59% YoY; the headline was reported last issue — this week cv.ce.cn published the company split): Sinotruk 188,509 (+26.69%), FAW Jiefang 116,357 (+18.11%), Shaanxi Auto 100,031 (+12.05%), Dongfeng 97,246 (+11.54%), Foton 90,029 (+35.31%) — five makers of similar scale holding over 90% combined share. Sixth-placed XCMG sold 26,400 (+57.05%, the industry's second-fastest growth) on mining, port and muck-hauling scenarios bundled as 'vehicle + megawatt charging + storage + O&M'. Foton's NEV heavy trucks reached 14k in H1 (+49.7% YoY).

关键数据Key data重汽 188,509 辆 · +26.69% YoYSinotruk 188,509 · +26.69% YoY前五市占 >90%Top-5 share >90%徐工 26,400 辆 · +57.05% YoYXCMG 26,400 · +57.05% YoY福田新能源重卡 1.4 万辆 · +49.7% YoYFoton NEV HDV 14k · +49.7% YoY
直接关切Directly material对业务的含义Implication

配套盘随头部集中：前五客户覆盖度决定车轴/连接件配套份额的基本盘；徐工在矿山/渣土场景的高增长是矿用车轴配套最直接的增量入口。

Supply share concentrates with the leaders: coverage of the top five decides the axle/coupling base; XCMG's growth in mining and muck-hauling is the most direct incremental entry for mining axles.

6 月新能源重卡约 3.25 万辆（+107% YoY）、渗透率约 45%——单月口径已越过 2030 年 40% 目标线；天然气重卡弱势延续June NEV heavy trucks ~32.5k (+107% YoY), penetration ~45% — a single-month reading already past the 2030 target of 40%; natural-gas trucks stay weak5

第一商用车网口径（新浪财经/方得网转载，异常值已回源转载稿确认）：6 月新能源重卡约 3.25 万辆，同比 +107%、环比 +20%；上半年累计 12.62 万辆（+85% YoY）；6 月渗透率约 45%（5 月 40.9%）。企业榜：三一 5,129 辆、重汽 4,758、徐工 4,740、解放 4,305。同月天然气重卡渗透率回落至约 15%，弱势延续（上期燃气锚点交代）。11 部门方案给 2030 年定的渗透率目标是 40%——单月口径已在目标线之上。Per CVWorld (via Sina Finance / find800 reposts; the outsized YoY was re-checked against the repost): June NEV heavy trucks reached ~32.5k, +107% YoY and +20% MoM; H1 cumulative 126.2k (+85% YoY); June penetration ~45% (May: 40.9%). Company board: Sany 5,129, Sinotruk 4,758, XCMG 4,740, Jiefang 4,305. Natural-gas heavy-truck penetration slipped to ~15% the same month, extending the slump (last issue's gas anchor addressed). The 11-ministry plan's 2030 target is 40% — the single-month reading is already above that line.

关键数据Key data渗透率约 45%（5 月 40.9%）Penetration ~45% (May 40.9%)6 月 3.25 万辆 · +107% YoY · +20% MoMJune 32.5k · +107% YoY · +20% MoMH1 12.62 万辆 · +85% YoYH1 126.2k · +85% YoY天然气重卡渗透率约 15%Gas HDV penetration ~15%
直接关切Directly material对业务的含义Implication

电驱桥对传统车轴的替代进入以量验证的阶段——按动力平台布局配套不再是前瞻判断，而是当期订单结构问题。

E-axle substitution of conventional axles is now a volume story — aligning supply to powertrain platforms is no longer a forward call but a present order-mix question.

03挂车 / 零部件与竞争对手Trailers, Components & Competitors3

欧洲挂车租赁商 TIP 出让 25% 股权：I Squared 售予 IMCO 与 GCM Grosvenor——约 9 万台挂车资产池获机构长钱定价European trailer lessor TIP sells a 25% stake: I Squared to IMCO and GCM Grosvenor — a ~90,000-unit trailer pool priced by long-horizon institutions6

TIP 总部阿姆斯特丹，在 17 国 130 余个网点运营约 9 万台挂车、卡车与专用装备，服务超 1.5 万家物流客户；I Squared 2018 年入主以来完成 30 起并购，营收与 EBITDA 翻倍以上，现向安大略省投资管理公司（IMCO）与 GCM Grosvenor 出售 25% 少数股权。挂车 OEM 新造订单之外，存量租赁资产端引入了养老金背景的长期资本。Amsterdam-based TIP runs a fleet of ~90,000 trailers, trucks and specialised equipment across 130+ locations in 17 European countries, serving 15,000+ transport customers. Since acquiring TIP in 2018, I Squared has completed 30 acquisitions and more than doubled revenue and EBITDA; it is now selling a 25% minority stake to IMCO (Ontario) and GCM Grosvenor. Beyond trailer-OEM new-build orders, the leased installed base has drawn pension-backed long-term capital.

关键数据Key data25% 股权 · IMCO + GCM Grosvenor25% stake · IMCO + GCM Grosvenor约 9 万台资产池 · 17 国~90,000-unit fleet · 17 countries2018 年以来 30 起并购30 acquisitions since 2018
对业务的含义Implication

机构长钱给挂车租赁资产定价，是挂车作为资产类别的信心信号；租赁商的车队更新节奏同时影响车轴/悬架 OEM 配套与后市场两端的量。

Long-horizon capital pricing trailer-leasing assets signals confidence in trailers as an asset class; a lessor's renewal cadence moves both OEM axle/suspension volumes and the aftermarket.

BPW 备战法兰克福 Automechanika：原厂件扩至农业、联手 HAZET 出维保工具、再制造件并列——后市场纵深加码BPW gears up for Automechanika Frankfurt: genuine parts extended to agriculture, HAZET-built workshop tools, remanufactured components — doubling down on aftermarket depth7

BPW 集团将携 OES 后市场业务与子公司 PE Automotive 参展 Automechanika 2026，主打减少车队停机：原厂替换件「Pure Genuine」系列扩展至农业运输场景；与工具商 HAZET 扩大合作，推出制动、车轮与行走系专用扭矩扳手及维保扭矩规范挂图；再制造件与数字化维保方案并列展出。BPW Group will exhibit its OES Aftermarket business alongside subsidiary PE Automotive at Automechanika 2026, focused on cutting fleet downtime: the 'Pure Genuine' replacement-parts range extends into agricultural transport; a broadened collaboration with tool maker HAZET adds torque wrenches for brake, wheel and running-gear work plus a workshop torque-spec poster; remanufactured components and digital maintenance tools round out the line-up.

关键数据Key dataPure Genuine 扩至农业Pure Genuine into agricultureHAZET 行走系专用工具HAZET running-gear tools再制造件 + 数字维保Reman parts + digital maintenance
直接关切Directly material对业务的含义Implication

竞品在车轴后市场做纵深——原厂件＋专用工具＋再制造的组合拉高车队粘性；我方在亚洲市场的售后件渠道与工具配套要对标这套打法。

A direct competitor is deepening the axle aftermarket — genuine parts plus dedicated tools plus reman raises fleet stickiness; our aftersales channels and tooling in Asia need to benchmark against this playbook.

北美挂车 OEM Wabash 提前数月开放 2027 年干货挂车订单簿——车队采购计划前移（辖区外信号）North American trailer OEM Wabash opens its 2027 dry-van order book months early — fleet purchasing plans move forward (extra-territory signal)8

Wabash 7/9 宣布提前开放 2027 年生产（2028 车型年）DuraPlate 干货厢式挂车订单，较传统的秋季开簿提前数月；CEO Brent Yeagy 称「挂车采购周期已经移动，客户现在就在规划 2027 年车队购置，而不是等到 10 月」。公司称 2026 年初以来订单活动超出季节性常态（未披露具体订单量；其 Q1 仍亏损）。辖区外市场，供挂车产品线参考。Wabash announced on 9 Jul that it is opening 2027-production (model-year 2028) DuraPlate dry-van orders months ahead of the traditional autumn book-opening; CEO Brent Yeagy: 'The trailer buying cycle has moved. Our customers are planning their 2027 fleet acquisitions right now, not in October.' The company cites above-seasonal order activity since early 2026 (no order figures disclosed; Q1 was still loss-making). An extra-territory market, tracked for the trailer product line.

关键数据Key data2027 订单簿 7/9 提前开放2027 book opened early, 9 Jul传统开簿时点为秋季Traditional opening: autumn
对业务的含义Implication

北美车队对 2027 年挂车需求转乐观、锁产能意愿上升——对第五轮座/支腿/车轴等挂车配套件是领先的排产参考，但不直接落在辖区。

North American fleets are turning optimistic on 2027 trailer demand and moving to lock capacity — a leading scheduling reference for fifth wheels, landing gear and axles, though not directly in our territory.

04矿用车 & 矿业Mining Vehicles & Mining3

同力重工签约新疆瀚翔：800 台无人驾驶矿卡——单笔规模行业罕见Tonly signs Xinjiang Hanxiang: 800 autonomous mining trucks — a rare deal at this scale9

7/16 乌鲁木齐，同力重工与矿服商新疆瀚翔签署 800 台无人驾驶矿卡协议，配套其在新疆矿区的无人化运营扩张；同场发布同力的绿色智能矿山整体方案与全周期服务体系。International Mining 称该订单在无人驾驶矿卡领域规模居前。In Urumqi on 16 Jul, Tonly Heavy Industries signed an agreement with mining contractor Xinjiang Hanxiang for 800 autonomous mining trucks, supporting the contractor's driverless expansion across Xinjiang mines; Tonly also presented its green-intelligent-mine solutions and full-cycle service system. International Mining calls the order a milestone in scale for autonomous mining trucks.

关键数据Key data800 台无人驾驶矿卡800 autonomous mining trucks7/16 乌鲁木齐签约Signed 16 Jul, Urumqi
直接关切Directly material对业务的含义Implication

直接关切——同力是矿用车轴配套的核心整车客户，800 台级订单直接转化为矿用车轴/悬架排产；无人化车型对车桥可靠性与寿命要求更高，是配套升级的抓手。

Directly material — Tonly is a core OEM customer for mining axles; an 800-unit order converts straight into axle/suspension scheduling, and driverless duty cycles raise reliability and lifetime requirements, an upgrade lever for suppliers.

中国矿卡厂商启动整车再制造：北方股份首台 NTE240 再制造车交付德兴铜矿——对标澳洲「多轮翻新」运营模式China's mining-truck OEMs launch full-vehicle rebuild programs: NHL delivers its first remanufactured NTE240 to Dexing Copper Mine — benchmarking Australia's multi-rebuild model10

International Mining 报道，中国头部矿卡 OEM 开始推整车再制造：北方股份（NHL）完成首台 NTE240（柴电驱动）再制造车，交付江西德兴铜矿，恢复整车性能并按矿区工况做定制升级。文章对比：澳大利亚矿山 4–5 轮翻新、单车运行超 10 万小时是常态，而中国矿山惯例是设备到寿即换新、旧车闲置；中国 OEM 补再制造这一课，既为客户 ROI，也是出海竞争的必答题。Per International Mining, leading Chinese mining-truck OEMs are rolling out full-vehicle remanufacturing: Inner Mongolia North Hauler (NHL) completed its first rebuilt NTE240 (diesel-electric drive) for Dexing Copper Mine in Jiangxi, restoring full performance with site-specific upgrades. The contrast drawn: four to five rebuilds and 100,000+ operating hours per truck are the norm in Australia, while Chinese mines typically run equipment to end of life and buy new; Chinese OEMs are closing that gap for customer ROI — and because it is table stakes for competing overseas.

关键数据Key data首台 NTE240 再制造 · 德兴铜矿First reman NTE240 · Dexing Copper澳洲惯例：4–5 轮翻新 · >10 万小时Australian norm: 4–5 rebuilds · >100k hrs
直接关切Directly material对业务的含义Implication

再制造把矿用车轴从「一次配套」变成「多轮翻新」的生意——翻新件与再制造工艺能力是新的配套入口，也决定我方在中国 OEM 出海机队上的全生命周期粘性。

Remanufacturing turns mining axles from one-shot supply into a multi-cycle business — rebuild kits and reman capability become a new entry point, and decide our lifecycle stickiness on Chinese OEMs' overseas fleets.

泰国 Mae Moh 褐煤矿：MMD 交付第 6、7 号破碎站——EGAT 物料系统升级延续，坑内破碎对卡车短倒的边际替代Thailand's Mae Moh lignite mine: MMD hands over Sizer Stations 6 and 7 — EGAT's materials-handling upgrade continues, with in-pit sizing substituting truck short-hauls at the margin11

MMD 6/19 向泰国国家电力局（EGAT）移交 Mae Moh 褐煤矿第 6、7 号破碎站，双方合作自 1993 年起逾 30 年；项目属 EGAT 以现代破碎-输送系统替换沿用约 40 年的传统双辊破碎机的整体升级。Mae Moh 是泰国最大的褐煤矿与能源基地之一。MMD handed over Sizer Stations 6 and 7 at the Mae Moh lignite mine to the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) on 19 June, extending a partnership running since 1993; the project is part of EGAT's programme to replace roughly 40-year-old double-roll crushers with modern sizing and conveying systems. Mae Moh is Thailand's largest lignite operation.

关键数据Key data6、7 号破碎站 6/19 移交Stations 6 & 7 handed over 19 Jun合作逾 30 年（1993 起）30+ year partnership (since 1993)
对业务的含义Implication

辖区矿业 capex 延续是矿卡需求的底盘；但坑内破碎＋带式输送每推进一步，对矿卡短倒运输就是一分边际替代——泰国矿卡配套增量有限。

Continued in-territory mining capex underpins truck demand, but every step of in-pit sizing plus conveying substitutes truck short-hauls at the margin — incremental mining-truck supply in Thailand stays limited.

05亚洲市场Asia Markets7
东亚East Asia

日本：6 月卡车 65,323 辆（+3.1% YoY，含轻/微卡总口径）——ARCHION 整合按其中期计划推进，本周无新增执行节点Japan: June trucks at 65,323 (+3.1% YoY, all-truck basis incl. light/mini) — ARCHION's consolidation tracks its mid-term plan, no new execution milestone this week12

JAMA 注册口径（just-auto 转述）：6 月卡车合计 65,323 辆、+3.1% YoY；总市场 426,883 辆、+8.6% YoY（2025 年 6 月 393,162 辆）。卡车数为总口径（含轻卡/微卡），重卡细分待 JADA 大中型货物车统计。连续性：ARCHION 卡车基地 5→3 整合（上期已述）出自其 5/15 中期经营计划——FY2032 集团销量目标 28 万辆、整合协同约 1,100 亿日元、85% 以上产量归整合平台；6/15 官宣取代日野、扶桑加入丰田系商用车联盟 CJPT，7/6 另公告股份出售（细节未核实）。本周为媒体梳理节点，无新增执行动作。JAMA registration data (via just-auto): June trucks totalled 65,323, +3.1% YoY, within a total market of 426,883 (+8.6% YoY; June 2025: 393,162). The truck figure is an all-truck basis including light and mini trucks; the heavy-duty split awaits JADA's large/medium goods-vehicle statistics. Continuity: ARCHION's five-to-three plant consolidation (covered last issue) stems from its 15 May mid-term plan — FY2032 targets of 280k group sales, ~¥110bn integration synergies and 85%+ of output on the merged platform; on 15 Jun it formally replaced Hino and Fuso in Toyota's CJPT commercial-vehicle alliance, and on 6 Jul it announced a share sale (details unverified). This week brought press recaps, no new execution steps.

关键数据Key data卡车 65,323 辆 · +3.1% YoY（总口径）Trucks 65,323 · +3.1% YoY (all-truck)FY2032 目标 28 万辆 · 协同 1,100 亿日元FY2032: 280k units · ¥110bn synergies
对业务的含义Implication

日本重卡进入 ARCHION 单极整合期，2032 年前产量向单一平台归拢——车桥/连接件配套接口将重新洗牌，盯整合平台的供应商准入窗口。

Japan's HDV sector enters a single-pole ARCHION consolidation, with output converging on one platform by 2032 — axle/coupling supply interfaces will be re-cut; watch the merged platform's supplier-qualification window.

韩国：6 月进口重卡新注册 328 辆（+12.7% YoY）——Volvo 占 38.4% 居首；国产 CV 细分未发布South Korea: June imported heavy-truck registrations at 328 (+12.7% YoY) — Volvo leads at 38.4%; domestic CV split unpublished13

6 月韩国进口重卡新注册 328 辆，同比与环比均 +12.7%（2025 年 6 月与今年 5 月均为 291 辆）；Volvo Trucks 126 辆（38.4%）居首，Scania 71 辆（21.6%）次之。进口口径，不代表韩国重卡总市场；KAMA 的国产商用车/中大型卡车 6 月细分未见公开发布，现代国产 CV 留待月度深更。Korea registered 328 imported heavy trucks in June, +12.7% both YoY and MoM (291 in June 2025 and in May this year); Volvo Trucks led with 126 units (38.4%), Scania second at 71 (21.6%). This is an import-only basis, not the total Korean HDV market; KAMA's June domestic CV / medium-heavy truck split was not publicly released — Hyundai's domestic CV awaits the monthly deep-dive.

关键数据Key data进口重卡 328 辆 · +12.7% YoYImported HDV 328 · +12.7% YoYVolvo 126 辆（38.4%）Volvo 126 (38.4%)
对业务的含义Implication

欧系头部在韩进口重卡盘继续走强，高端牵引车格局稳定——对我方为观察项。

European majors keep strengthening in Korea's imported HDV pool; the premium-tractor landscape is stable — a watch item for us.

东南亚Southeast Asia

印尼：GAIKINDO 上半年商用车批发 114,154 辆（+39% YoY），中型卡车 +55%——6 月总批发 77,550 辆（+33% YoY，低基数）Indonesia: GAIKINDO H1 CV wholesales at 114,154 (+39% YoY), medium trucks +55% — June total wholesales 77,550 (+33% YoY off a low base)14

GAIKINDO 批发口径（just-auto 转述）：上半年总批发 436,564 辆（+16% YoY，2025 年 H1 为 376,707 辆）；商用车合计 114,154 辆（+39% YoY），其中轻型商用车 66,004 辆（+51%）、中型卡车 26,744 辆（+55%）；重卡（GVW>24t）细分未单列，待 GAIKINDO 分类表（上期锚点交代：6 月 CV 细分部分兑现，重卡口径仍缺）。6 月单月总批发 77,550 辆（+33% YoY，对 2025 年 6 月 58,363 辆的低基数；+12% MoM）——此为含乘用车的总市场口径。GAIKINDO wholesale data (via just-auto): H1 total wholesales 436,564 (+16% YoY vs 376,707 in H1 2025); commercial vehicles 114,154 (+39% YoY), of which light CVs 66,004 (+51%) and medium-duty trucks 26,744 (+55%); the heavy-truck (GVW>24t) split was not itemised, pending GAIKINDO's category tables (last issue's anchor: the June CV split is partly delivered, the HDV cut still missing). June-only total wholesales were 77,550 (+33% YoY against a low base of 58,363 in June 2025; +12% MoM) — a total-market figure including passenger cars.

关键数据Key dataCV 114,154 辆 · +39% YoYCV 114,154 · +39% YoY中型卡车 26,744 辆 · +55% YoYMedium trucks 26,744 · +55% YoY6 月总批发 77,550 辆 · +33% YoY（低基数）June total 77,550 · +33% YoY (low base)
直接关切Directly material对业务的含义Implication

核心区域的整车需求在涨、供给侧规则在收（宏观章印尼条并读）——配套盘上行方向确认，项目型增量等 7/31 配额与矿权细则两个政策节点。

In our core market, vehicle demand is rising while supply-side rules tighten (read with the Indonesia macro entry) — the direction for component supply is confirmed; project-driven increments wait on the 31 Jul quota and permit-rule nodes.

越南：VAMA 上半年商用车超 3.8 万辆（+28% YoY）——6 月单月 CV 9,526 辆（−7% MoM）Vietnam: VAMA H1 commercial vehicles above 38,000 (+28% YoY) — June CV at 9,526 (−7% MoM)15

含非会员进口商的扩展口径：上半年总销量 187,833 辆（+15% YoY，2025 年 H1 为 163,021 辆）；商用车超 38,000 辆（+28% YoY）。仅 VAMA 会员口径 H1 为 149,761 辆（+15% YoY）。6 月单月总销量 31,104 辆（−2.7% YoY、+4% MoM），商用车 9,526 辆（−7% MoM，同比未披露）；卡车单独细分待 VAMA 原始月报（上期锚点交代：CV 细分已出，+28%）。On the extended basis including non-member importers: H1 total sales 187,833 (+15% YoY vs 163,021 in H1 2025), with commercial vehicles above 38,000 (+28% YoY). On the VAMA members-only basis, H1 was 149,761 (+15% YoY). June-only totals were 31,104 (−2.7% YoY, +4% MoM), with CVs at 9,526 (−7% MoM; YoY undisclosed); the truck-only split awaits VAMA's original monthly report (last issue's anchor addressed: the CV split is out, at +28%).

关键数据Key dataH1 CV >38,000 辆 · +28% YoYH1 CV >38,000 · +28% YoY6 月 CV 9,526 辆 · −7% MoMJune CV 9,526 · −7% MoM
对业务的含义Implication

越南 CV 半年 +28% 与公共投资放款加速同向；中国低价 CBU 持续抢份额仍是当地配套基本盘的结构性变量（宏观章越南条并读）。

Vietnam's +28% H1 CV growth runs in the same direction as the disbursement push; low-priced Chinese CBUs keep taking share — the structural variable for the local component base (read with the Vietnam macro entry).

新加坡：货车/巴士类 COE 成交 S$95,000 创历史新高（7/8 投标）Singapore: Cat C (goods vehicles & buses) COE closes at an all-time high of S$95,000 (8 Jul tender)16

7/8 第一次投标，Cat C（货车与巴士）COE 成交 S$95,000，较上次 S$93,001 上涨 S$1,999，投标 442 份对配额 296 张；此前纪录为 5 月第二次投标的 S$92,223。候选池中 Business Times 报道称业界呼吁重审 CV 类别（原文付费墙，未独立核实，标待核实）。At the 8 Jul first tender, the Cat C COE (goods vehicles and buses) closed at S$95,000, up S$1,999 from S$93,001 last round, on 442 bids against a quota of 296; the previous record was S$92,223 at May's second tender. A Business Times report in the candidate pool says the industry is calling for a review of the CV category (paywalled, not independently verified — flagged as unverified).

关键数据Key dataCat C S$95,000 · 历史新高Cat C S$95,000 · all-time high442 份投标 对 296 张配额442 bids vs 296 quota
对业务的含义Implication

新加坡 CV 置换成本再创高——车队推迟换车、车龄拉长，对新车配套是抑制、对维保后市场是支撑。

Singapore's CV replacement cost sets another high — fleets defer renewals and ages stretch, suppressing new-vehicle supply while supporting the maintenance aftermarket.

南亚South Asia

印度：SIAM 口径 Q1 FY27 商用车约 26.5 万辆（+18.3% YoY）创同期新高——M&HCV 细分未发布，Ashok Leyland 6 月 M&HCV 卡车 +44%（厂方口径）India: SIAM puts Q1 FY27 CV sales at ~265,000 (+18.3% YoY), a first-quarter record — no M&HCV split yet; Ashok Leyland's June M&HCV trucks +44% (company basis)17

SIAM 7/15 发布：2026 年 4–6 月商用车销量约 265,000 辆、+18.3% YoY，创 Q1 历史新高，驱动因素含 GST 下调、融资成本回落与低基数（SIAM，CV 总口径；M&HCV 细分未随稿发布）。厂方口径补充：Ashok Leyland 6 月国内 M&HCV 卡车 9,458 辆（+44% YoY，上年同月 6,554 辆）；Tata CV 6 月 40,805 辆（+35% YoY）、Q1 累计 108,488 辆（+27% YoY，含轻型）。SIAM's 15 Jul release: commercial-vehicle sales for Apr–Jun 2026 reached about 265,000 units, +18.3% YoY, a first-quarter record, on GST cuts, easing financing costs and a low base (SIAM, total-CV basis; no M&HCV split published with the release). Company-basis colour: Ashok Leyland's June domestic M&HCV trucks were 9,458 (+44% YoY vs 6,554); Tata's June CV sales were 40,805 (+35% YoY) and Q1 totalled 108,488 (+27% YoY, incl. light CVs).

关键数据Key dataQ1 CV 约 26.5 万辆 · +18.3% YoY（SIAM）Q1 CV ~265k · +18.3% YoY (SIAM)AL 6 月 M&HCV 卡车 9,458 辆 · +44% YoYAL June M&HCV trucks 9,458 · +44% YoY
对业务的含义Implication

印度 CV 上行周期确认，M&HCV（厂方口径）跑得比大盘快——南亚是辖区外沿最强的量增极，配套跟踪 Tata/AL 的排产与本地化件价。

India's CV upcycle is confirmed, with M&HCV (company basis) outpacing the market — South Asia is the strongest volume pole on the territory's rim; track Tata/AL scheduling and localised component pricing.

印度：Tata 商用车 7/1 起涨价至多 2.5%，7/14 再与 UCO Bank 签 CV 金融合作——提价与扩融资同步India: Tata raises CV prices by up to 2.5% from 1 Jul and signs a CV-financing MoU with UCO Bank on 14 Jul — pricing power alongside broader credit reach18

Tata Motors 官宣商用车全系 7/1 起涨价至多 2.5%（幅度因车型/配置而异，为 FY27 财年内第二次调价，理由为大宗与投入成本上涨）；7/14 与国有 UCO Bank 签 MoU，面向 0.9–55 吨全系提供高 LTV、快速审批与按车队现金流定制的还款方案，重点覆盖金融服务不足的城乡小车队（无具体利率/金额披露）。Tata Motors announced a price increase of up to 2.5% across its CV range from 1 Jul (varying by model and spec; the second hike of FY27, citing commodity and input-cost inflation), and on 14 Jul signed an MoU with state-owned UCO Bank offering high-LTV, fast-approval financing with repayment tailored to fleet cash flows across its 0.9–55t range, aimed at under-banked small fleet operators (no rate or volume figures disclosed).

关键数据Key data全系涨价 ≤2.5%（7/1 起）Prices up ≤2.5% from 1 JulUCO Bank MoU · 0.9–55 吨 · 高 LTVUCO Bank MoU · 0.9–55t · high LTV
对业务的含义Implication

头部 OEM 在提价转嫁成本的同时扩大融资触达来护量——印度 CV 景气下的定价权信号，零部件成本传导环境对当地配套商偏有利。

The leading OEM passes through costs while widening credit access to defend volume — a pricing-power signal in India's CV upcycle, and a cost-pass-through environment that favours local component suppliers.

06中国 OEM 出海China OEM Overseas Expansion1

一汽解放半年业绩预增：净利 2.7–3.2 亿元（低基数下同比 +1273.64%–1528.02%）——公告点名海外属地化与新能源两条增量线；6 月重卡出口约 +35% YoY（预估口径）FAW Jiefang guides H1 profit up: net profit RMB 270–320m (+1,273.64%–1,528.02% YoY off a low base) — the filing names overseas localisation and NEV as the two growth lines; June HDV exports ~+35% YoY (estimated basis)19

解放 7/14 业绩预告：上半年归母净利 2.7–3.2 亿元，同比 +1273.64%–1528.02%（异常值系上年同期基数低所致，数字取自公告原文；扣非后 0.3–0.4 亿元、同比 +107.97%–110.62%）。公告归因：产品结构优化、围绕「SPRINT 2030」推进海外子公司落地与研产销服一体化的属地化布局、新能源放量（「蓝途 3.0」平台与「鲸E租」车电分离模式）与成本管控。行业面：6 月中国重卡出口同比约 +35%（第一商用车网预估口径，绝对量未发布、待中汽协出口分项，标待核实）。Jiefang's 14 Jul earnings pre-announcement: H1 net profit attributable of RMB 270–320m, +1,273.64%–1,528.02% YoY (the outsized percentage reflects last year's low base; figures are from the filing itself; ex-non-recurring profit RMB 30–40m, +107.97%–110.62%). The filing credits an improved product mix, overseas localisation under 'SPRINT 2030' (subsidiaries plus integrated R&D-production-sales-service), NEV volume growth (the 'Lantu 3.0' platform and the 'Whale-E-Lease' battery-separation model) and cost control. Industry backdrop: June China HDV exports rose roughly 35% YoY (CVWorld estimated basis; absolute volume unpublished, pending CAAM's export split — flagged as unverified).

关键数据Key data净利 2.7–3.2 亿元（+1273.64%–1528.02% YoY，低基数）Net profit RMB 270–320m (+1,273.64%–1,528.02% YoY, low base)扣非 0.3–0.4 亿元Ex-non-recurring RMB 30–40m6 月重卡出口约 +35% YoY（预估，绝对量待核实）June HDV exports ~+35% YoY (est., volume TBC)
对业务的含义Implication

出口与新能源正在成为头部 OEM 的利润结构变量——出海机队扩大即海外配套与售后件需求扩大，属地化子公司是配套切入点。

Exports and NEV are becoming profit-mix variables for the leading OEMs — a growing overseas fleet means growing overseas component and aftersales demand, with localised subsidiaries as the entry point.

来源Sources
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4中国商用汽车网（中汽协数据）cv.ce.cn (CAAM data) cv.ce.cn 分企业半年数据2026-07-17
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6Global TrailerGlobal Trailer TIP 股权交易2026-07-15
7Global TrailerGlobal Trailer BPW Automechanika2026-07-15
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13StarNews KoreaStarNews Korea 6 月进口重卡注册2026-07-08
14just-auto（GAIKINDO 数据） · GAIKINDOjust-auto (GAIKINDO data) · GAIKINDO 印尼 6 月/H1 批发（just-auto）GAIKINDO H1 分类报告2026-07-15 / 16
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