行业动态周报Weekly Industry Brief

重型商用车 · 挂车 · 矿用车 情报周报车轴 / 第五轮座 / 连接件 视角 · 亚洲 Heavy CV · Trailers · Mining Vehicles IntelligenceAxle / fifth-wheel / coupling lens · Asia

2026 · W29
2026-07-06 → 07-12
本周主线Bottom Line

政策把方向钉死，市场把量给足：国务院《“十五五”碳达峰行动方案》7/9 公开，“支持新能源重卡规模化应用”与“零碳公路运输通道”首次写进国家级 2030 路线图；同一周中汽协确认上半年重型货车 66.1 万辆（+22.6% YoY）。电驱化同时传到了挂车端——SAF-Holland、BPW 的电驱挂车轴已进入早期商用部署，车轴产品线自身开始电动化。海外一紧一松：印尼 ESDM 7/11 明确镍配额不放宽，下半年矿运增量被锁死；越南公共投资 6 月单月放款 137.6 万亿盾，加速真发生了。

Policy fixed the direction and the market delivered the volume: the State Council's 15th Five-Year Carbon Peaking Action Plan, published 9 Jul, writes “scaled application of new-energy heavy trucks” and “zero-carbon highway freight corridors” into a national 2030 roadmap for the first time; the same week CAAM confirmed H1 heavy-truck sales of 661k units (+22.6% YoY). Electrification has also reached the trailer end — SAF-Holland and BPW e-trailer axles are in early commercial deployment, meaning the axle product line itself is electrifying. Overseas, one squeeze and one release: Indonesia's ESDM ruled out a broad nickel-quota increase on 11 Jul, capping H2 mining haulage growth, while Vietnam disbursed a record VND 137.6tn of public investment in June alone — the acceleration is real.

宏观Macro

中国政策与成本端同向偏松：碳达峰方案给新能源重卡与干线补能通道定下 2030 目标；7/3 柴油每吨降 915 元之后，7/17 下轮窗口预期搁浅或小幅下调。印尼在收：镍配额不放宽、BI 处于加息通道（BI-Rate 5.75%，7/21–22 例会是下一节点）。

China's policy and cost sides both lean supportive: the carbon-peaking plan sets 2030 targets for NEV heavy trucks and trunk-line refueling corridors; after the 3 Jul diesel cut of RMB 915/t, the 17 Jul window is expected to hold flat or cut slightly. Indonesia is tightening: no nickel-quota easing, and BI is in a hiking cycle (BI-Rate 5.75%, next meeting 21–22 Jul).

信号Signal

车轴产品线自身开始电动化：SAF-Holland TRAKr/TRAKe、BPW AxlePower 电驱挂车轴进入早期商用，欧盟已开放 eTrailer 型式认证。叠加碳达峰方案要求矿山、港口作业车辆新能源化，电驱替代主线从牵引车延伸到挂车轴。

The axle line itself is electrifying: SAF-Holland TRAKr/TRAKe and BPW AxlePower e-trailer axles are in early commercial use, and the EU has opened eTrailer type approval. With the carbon plan mandating new-energy vehicles at mines and ports, the e-drive substitution thread extends from tractors to trailer axles.

需求Demand

中国重卡量强价弱：H1 重型货车 +22.6% YoY，但 6 月汽车制造业出厂价 −2.1% YoY 且降幅扩大，价格战未止。印度 CV 零售创 6 月新高（+16.88% YoY）而 HCV 只 +8.26%；韩国现代 CV 上半年 −16% YoY；印尼矿运顶被配额锁住。

China: strong volume, weak price — H1 heavy trucks +22.6% YoY, but June auto-manufacturing PPI fell 2.1% YoY with the decline widening. India CV retail set a June record (+16.88% YoY) yet HCV grew only 8.26%; Hyundai's Korea CV sales fell 16% YoY in H1; Indonesia's mining haulage ceiling is quota-locked.

结论Verdict

首要监测项三个日期：7/17 柴油调价窗口、7/21–22 BI 决议、7/31 印尼镍补充批复与 DMO 限价修订。产品线上盯电驱挂车轴的商用化节奏——“配套按动力平台布局”的判断从整车延伸到挂车。

Three dates to watch: the 17 Jul diesel price window, BI's 21–22 Jul decision, and Indonesia's 31 Jul nickel supplementary approvals plus the DMO price-cap revision. On the product line, track the commercialization pace of e-trailer axles — “configure by powertrain platform” now extends from trucks to trailers.

本周要点Key Takeaways
01宏观与政策环境Macro & Policy3
领先指标Leading置信 高Confidence High

国务院《“十五五”碳达峰行动方案》：新能源重卡规模化与零碳公路运输通道首次进入国家级 2030 路线图State Council's 15th Five-Year Carbon Peaking Action Plan: scaled NEV heavy trucks and zero-carbon highway freight corridors enter a national 2030 roadmap for the first time1

国务院 7/9 公开《“十五五”碳达峰行动方案》（国发〔2026〕22 号，成文 7/5）：到 2030 年单位 GDP 二氧化碳排放比 2025 年降低 17%、非化石能源消费占比 25%。交通部分原文明确“支持新能源重卡规模化应用，完善充换电、绿色氢氨醇加注等补能设施，聚焦货运量大的国家高速公路和普通国道建设零碳公路运输通道”，并要求矿山、港口、物流园区等作业车辆新能源化、淘汰老旧交通工具；2030 年新能源汽车保有量占比力争 30%、新能源营运交通工具保有量占比 25%。需求侧同周数据：6 月物流业景气指数 50.6%（环比 +0.3 个百分点，新订单连续 4 个月回升，中国物流与采购联合会）；PPI 中汽车制造业出厂价同比 −2.1%、降幅扩大（国家统计局 7/9）。上期锚点交代：新能源商用车车船税优惠 2027 年到期（W28）与本方案同月并行——补贴在退、目标与基建在加；7/3 柴油每吨降 915 元后，下轮 7/17 窗口机构预期搁浅或小幅下调（隆众/金联创）。The State Council published the 15th Five-Year Carbon Peaking Action Plan (Guofa [2026] No. 22, dated 5 Jul, released 9 Jul): by 2030, CO₂ per unit of GDP falls 17% from 2025 and non-fossil energy reaches 25% of consumption. The transport chapter explicitly “supports scaled application of new-energy heavy trucks, improves charging/battery-swap and green hydrogen-ammonia-methanol refueling infrastructure, and builds zero-carbon highway freight corridors on high-volume national expressways and trunk roads”, mandates new-energy switchovers for work vehicles at mines, ports and logistics parks, and targets a 30% NEV share of the vehicle parc (25% for commercial operating fleets) by 2030. Same-week demand data: June logistics prosperity index 50.6% (+0.3pt MoM, new orders up a fourth straight month, CFLP); auto-manufacturing PPI −2.1% YoY with the decline widening (NBS, 9 Jul). Continuity from last issue: the NEV commercial-vehicle tax exemption still expires in 2027 (W28), running in parallel with this plan — subsidies recede while targets and infrastructure advance; after the 3 Jul diesel cut of RMB 915/t, analysts expect the 17 Jul window to hold flat or cut slightly (Longzhong/JLC).

关键数据（事实层）Key data (facts)2030 单位 GDP CO₂ 比 2025 年 −17%2030 CO₂/GDP −17% vs 20252030 新能源汽车保有量占比力争 30%2030 NEV parc share target 30%6 月物流业景气指数 50.6%（MoM +0.3pct）June logistics index 50.6% (+0.3pt MoM)汽车制造业 PPI 6 月 −2.1% YoY（降幅扩大）Auto-mfg PPI −2.1% YoY in June (widening)
事件Event

国务院把新能源重卡规模化应用与零碳公路运输通道写进 2030 国家路线图（7/9 公开）；同期车船税优惠 2027 年到期——政策组合从购置补贴转向目标+补能基建。The State Council writes scaled NEV heavy trucks and zero-carbon freight corridors into the national 2030 roadmap (published 9 Jul); with the vehicle-tax exemption expiring in 2027, the policy mix shifts from purchase subsidies to targets plus refueling infrastructure.

机制Mechanism

干线补能通道降低电动/氢能重卡的运营半径约束；矿山、港口作业车辆新能源化与老旧车淘汰同时作用于置换节奏与动力结构。Trunk-line refueling corridors relax the operating-radius constraint on electric/hydrogen heavy trucks; new-energy mandates for mine/port work vehicles plus scrappage of old units act on both replacement pace and powertrain mix.

市场Market

新能源重卡渗透率（6 月终端已超 45%，W28）有望沿目标继续抬升，柴油与燃气车份额承压；落地节奏取决于部委配套细则，短期销量影响有限。NEV heavy-truck penetration (already above 45% at retail in June, W28) is likely to keep climbing along the target path, pressuring diesel and gas shares; the pace hinges on ministry implementation rules, with limited near-term sales impact.

业务Business

电驱桥对传统车轴的替代主线获国家级背书；矿山、港口场景（宽体自卸、港口牵引车）新能源化或先行——车轴/连接件配套须按电驱平台布局；挂车与连接件本身不因动力路线改变，但客户与平台结构会变。The e-axle substitution thread gains national-level backing; mine and port applications (wide-body tippers, port tractors) will likely electrify first — axle/coupling fitment must be configured around e-drive platforms; trailers and couplings themselves are powertrain-agnostic, but the customer and platform mix will shift.

净判断Net

电动化主线从“补贴驱动”切换到“目标+基建驱动”，方向更确定，节奏看细则。The electrification thread switches from subsidy-driven to target-plus-infrastructure-driven: the direction is firmer, the pace depends on implementation rules.

前提Premise零碳通道试点与补能投资细则在 2026–27 年落地；新能源重卡渗透率延续升势。Corridor pilots and refueling-investment rules land in 2026–27; NEV heavy-truck penetration keeps rising.
证伪信号Falsifier2027 年车船税恢复征收后新能源重卡销量失速、渗透率回落；零碳通道试点名单迟迟不出。NEV heavy-truck sales stall and penetration falls after the 2027 tax reinstatement; corridor pilot lists fail to appear.
追踪锚点Track发改委/交通部零碳公路运输通道试点名单；第一商用车网 7 月新能源重卡渗透率；7/17 柴油调价窗口（预期搁浅或小幅下调）。NDRC/MOT corridor pilot lists; cvworld.cn July NEV heavy-truck penetration; the 17 Jul diesel window (expected flat or a small cut).
领先指标Leading置信 中Confidence Mid

印尼资源政策双线：镍配额 7/11 明确不放宽，煤 DMO 限价危机升格为刑事调查、部长拟修订限价（货源型传导）Indonesia's twin resource-policy tracks: nickel quotas ruled out for broad easing on 11 Jul; the coal DMO price-cap crisis escalates into a criminal probe as the minister signals a cap revision (freight-source transmission)2

镍线：ESDM 矿产煤炭总司长 Tri Winarno 7/11 表态镍不增加配额、例外仅限补给缺料冶炼厂——7/31 截止的 RKAB 修订窗口不会全面放宽（上期锚点交代）。2026 年已批配额约 250–270 百万湿吨区间（各家转述口径不一，待 ESDM 正式批复确认；2025 年批复 375–379 百万吨）。煤线：7/7 印尼警方将 PLN 供煤腐败案升格为正式刑事调查（估算损失 Rp 5 万亿、约 $2.78 亿，指控 2018–2026 年间操纵煤质与发货量，疑与苏门答腊、爪哇、加里曼丹多地轮流停电有关）；案件根源是 DMO 机制——电煤限价 $70/吨（≥6,000 kcal/kg GAR）而 7 月上半月 HBA 达 $126.58/吨（较 6 月下半月 $123.91 环比 +2.15%，全品位上调），价差逾 $50 使煤企宁交罚款也出口；能矿部长 Bahlil 表态拟修订 DMO 限价。利率侧：6 月两次加息后 BI-Rate 5.75%，7 月例会为 7/21–22（勘正上期“约 17–18 日”）。Nickel: ESDM minerals director-general Tri Winarno said on 11 Jul that nickel quotas will not be increased, with exceptions only for smelters short of feed — the RKAB revision window closing 31 Jul will not be broadly relaxed (last issue's anchor addressed). Approved 2026 quotas sit around 250–270 mn wmt (secondary sources differ on the exact figure, pending ESDM's formal approvals; 375–379 mn t was approved for 2025). Coal: on 7 Jul police escalated a PLN coal-procurement graft case into a formal criminal investigation (estimated losses Rp 5tn, ~$278m; alleged manipulation of coal quality and delivery volumes across 2018–2026, suspected links to rolling blackouts in Sumatra, Java and Kalimantan). The root cause is the DMO regime — power-plant coal is capped at $70/t (≥6,000 kcal/kg GAR) while the early-July HBA reached $126.58/t (vs $123.91 in late June, +2.15% MoM, raised across grades), a $50+ spread that makes exporting worth the fine; Energy Minister Bahlil signaled a DMO cap revision. Rates: after two June hikes the BI-Rate stands at 5.75%; the July meeting is 21–22 Jul (correcting last issue's “~17–18”).

关键数据（事实层）Key data (facts)镍配额不放宽（7/31 窗口仅补缺料冶炼厂）No nickel-quota easing (31 Jul window tops up short smelters only)DMO $70/t 对 HBA $126.58/t（价差 >$50）DMO $70/t vs HBA $126.58/t (spread >$50)HBA 7 月上半月 +2.15% MoM（全品位上调）Early-July HBA +2.15% MoM (raised across grades)BI-Rate 5.75% · 例会 7/21–22BI-Rate 5.75% · meeting 21–22 Jul
事件Event

镍配额 7/11 明确不放宽；煤 DMO 限价争议升级为刑事调查，部长放话修订限价。Nickel quotas ruled out for easing on 11 Jul; the coal DMO cap dispute escalates into a criminal probe and the minister floats a revision.

机制Mechanism

货源型传导——镍配额锁死苏拉威西/北马鲁古矿石开采与短倒运量的上限；煤 DMO 若上调，煤企国内供应意愿与现金流改善，加里曼丹煤运需求获托底，但调查震慑短期或使部分煤企发运趋谨慎。Freight-source transmission — the nickel quota caps ore output and short-haul volumes in Sulawesi/North Maluku; if the coal DMO cap is raised, miners' domestic-supply willingness and cash flow improve, underpinning Kalimantan coal haulage, though the probe may make some shippers cautious near term.

市场Market

H2 镍区矿卡/自卸增量需求承压（顶被锁死）；煤区运量方向取决于 DMO 修订是否落地，短期中性偏观望。Incremental H2 demand for mining trucks/tippers in the nickel belts stays under pressure (ceiling locked); coal-belt haulage direction hinges on whether the DMO revision lands — neutral-to-wait-and-see near term.

业务Business

印尼是核心市场：镍区车轴/挂车配套的增量订单大概率继续押后；煤区若 DMO 上调，运力更新需求有望回暖；存量车队售后不受影响。Indonesia is the core market: incremental axle/trailer fitment orders in the nickel belts will likely stay deferred; if the DMO cap rises, coal-belt fleet-renewal demand could recover; existing-parc aftersales is unaffected.

净判断Net

7/31 补充批复量与 DMO 修订与否，是决定 H2 印尼矿运需求的两个开关；7/22 BI 决议决定融资成本方向。The 31 Jul supplementary approvals and the DMO revision are the two switches for H2 Indonesian mining haulage; BI's 22 Jul decision sets the financing-cost direction.

前提PremiseESDM 执行口径与 7/11 表态一致；DMO 修订仍在讨论、未见文件。ESDM's execution matches the 11 Jul statement; the DMO revision remains under discussion with no document issued.
证伪信号Falsifier7/31 前 ESDM 大规模补批镍配额；DMO 修订被否或长期搁置。ESDM approves large supplementary nickel quotas before 31 Jul; the DMO revision is rejected or shelved.
追踪锚点Track7/31 ESDM 补充批复量、8 月 HBA、BI 7/22 决议与银行贷款利率、GAIKINDO 6 月 CV 细分（总批发 +12.0% YoY 已出，细分待发）。ESDM supplementary approvals by 31 Jul; the August HBA; BI's 22 Jul decision and bank lending rates; GAIKINDO's June CV breakdown (headline wholesale +12.0% YoY is out, the split pending).
领先指标Leading置信 中Confidence Mid

越南公共投资：6 月单月放款 137.6 万亿盾创上半年最高，H1 完成年度计划 35.5%——加速真发生了（工程车领先指标）Vietnam public investment: June disbursement of VND 137.6tn was the highest month of H1, taking completion to 35.5% of the annual plan — the acceleration is real (a leading indicator for construction trucks)3

财政部数据（VNA 7/10 转述）：2026 年上半年公共投资放款 357 万亿盾（约 $135 亿），完成总理下达年度计划的 35.5%，较 2025 年同期多放 38.36 万亿盾；月度轨迹 4 月 34 → 5 月 75.1 → 6 月 137.6 万亿盾，6 月单月超过 4、5 月之和。勘正上期：W28 引的 22.4% 为截至 6/4 的时点数（227.2 万亿盾），非 5 月末——“下半年被迫加速”应改写为“6 月已开始猛冲”。结构上，交通类项目截至 6 月末放款 59.3 万亿盾、仅完成年度分配的 24.2%，财政部要求三季度交通项目放款率高于全国平均。2026 年计划盘子约 1.08 千万亿盾（约 $380 亿，创纪录）。Ministry of Finance data (via VNA, 10 Jul): H1 2026 public-investment disbursement reached VND 357tn (~$13.5bn), 35.5% of the PM-assigned annual plan and VND 38.36tn more than a year earlier; the monthly path ran Apr 34 → May 75.1 → Jun 137.6tn, with June alone exceeding April plus May. Correction to last issue: the 22.4% cited in W28 was the position as of 4 Jun (VND 227.2tn), not end-May — “H2 will be forced to accelerate” should read “the June surge already happened”. Structurally, transport projects had disbursed only VND 59.3tn by end-June, 24.2% of their annual allocation, and the MOF requires transport disbursement to beat the national average in Q3. The 2026 plan totals a record ~VND 1,080tn (~$38bn).

关键数据（事实层）Key data (facts)H1 放款 357 万亿盾（完成 35.5%）H1 disbursed VND 357tn (35.5% of plan)6 月单月 137.6 万亿盾（H1 最高）June alone VND 137.6tn (H1 high)交通类仅完成 24.2%（Q3 被点名提速）Transport at just 24.2% (told to speed up in Q3)
事件Event

H1 放款 35.5%、6 月单月 137.6 万亿盾创新高；交通类进度 24.2% 明显落后并被点名。H1 disbursement hit 35.5% with a record VND 137.6tn in June; transport projects lag at 24.2% and have been singled out.

机制Mechanism

公共投资放款 → 基建开工与土方、材料运输作业量 → 自卸车/搅拌车/工程重卡购置；交通项目在 Q3 被要求提速，弹性最大。Disbursement drives construction starts and earthmoving/material haulage, which drives tipper/mixer/construction-truck purchases; transport projects, ordered to accelerate in Q3, hold the most upside.

市场Market

下半年越南工程车需求有望回暖，交通项目若按要求提速，Q3–Q4 兑现概率上升；中国 CBU 低价整车仍在侵蚀市场份额（结构风险，延续跟踪）。H2 construction-truck demand is likely to recover, with Q3–Q4 delivery odds rising if transport projects speed up as ordered; low-priced Chinese CBU trucks keep eroding share (structural risk, still tracked).

业务Business

工程车放量利好自卸/挂车配套；须防中国整车以 CBU 低价打包进入，挤压本地改装与配套链。A construction-truck upturn benefits tipper/trailer fitment; the counter-risk is Chinese OEMs bundling low-priced CBUs and squeezing the local bodybuilding and components chain.

净判断Net

放款加速已发生，重卡端兑现看 Q3 交通项目提速与 VAMA 商用车细分。The disbursement acceleration has happened; truck-side delivery now hinges on Q3 transport speed-up and VAMA's CV breakdown.

前提PremiseQ3 放款延续 6 月强度；交通项目按财政部要求提速。Q3 disbursement keeps June's intensity; transport projects accelerate as ordered.
证伪信号Falsifier7–8 月放款回落至 5 月前水平；交通类进度三季度末仍低于 40%。Jul–Aug disbursement falls back to pre-May levels; transport completion stays under 40% by end-Q3.
追踪锚点Track财政部 7 月放款月报；VAMA 7 月商用车细分（约每月 10 日发布）。The MOF's July disbursement report; VAMA's July CV breakdown (published ~10th monthly).
02重卡 / 商用车市场Trucks & Commercial Vehicles2

中汽协上半年数据：重型货车 66.1 万辆（+22.6% YoY）、6 月 11.7 万辆（+19.2% YoY）——增长集中在中重卡，天然气弱势延续CAAM H1 data: heavy trucks 661k (+22.6% YoY), June 117k (+19.2% YoY) — growth concentrates in medium/heavy trucks while natural gas stays weak4

中汽协 7/9 发布：上半年商用车销量 229.7 万辆（+8.3% YoY），其中重型货车 66.1 万辆（+22.6% YoY）、中型货车 7.5 万辆（+25.3% YoY）、轻型货车 105 万辆（仅 +1.3% YoY）——增长集中在中重卡。6 月单月商用车 40.9 万辆（+10.7% YoY、+8.5% MoM）；重型货车 11.7 万辆（+19.2% YoY、+6.5% MoM），略高于上期第一商用车网初值约 11.5 万辆。天然气商用车 6 月 1.7 万辆（−1.8% YoY、−21.7% MoM），上半年 14 万辆（+17.9% YoY）——6 月转弱与上期判断一致：LNG 价虽自高位回落约 4%，燃气经济性仍未修复。CAAM (9 Jul): H1 commercial-vehicle sales reached 2.297m (+8.3% YoY), of which heavy trucks 661k (+22.6% YoY), medium trucks 75k (+25.3% YoY) and light trucks 1.05m (just +1.3% YoY) — growth concentrates in medium/heavy segments. June CVs totaled 409k (+10.7% YoY, +8.5% MoM); heavy trucks 117k (+19.2% YoY, +6.5% MoM), slightly above last issue's cvworld.cn preliminary of ~115k. Natural-gas CVs fell to 17k in June (−1.8% YoY, −21.7% MoM) against 140k in H1 (+17.9% YoY) — the June weakening matches last issue's read: even with LNG down ~4% from its high, gas economics remain unrepaired.

关键数据Key dataH1 重型货车 66.1 万辆 +22.6% YoYH1 heavy trucks 661k +22.6% YoY6 月重型货车 11.7 万辆 +19.2% YoY、+6.5% MoMJune heavy trucks 117k +19.2% YoY, +6.5% MoM商用车 H1 229.7 万辆 +8.3% YoYH1 CVs 2.297m +8.3% YoY天然气 CV 6 月 1.7 万辆 −1.8% YoY、−21.7% MoMGas CVs 17k in June −1.8% YoY, −21.7% MoM
直接关切Directly material对业务的含义Implication

车轴/连接件的量基本盘稳固——上半年重卡 +22.6% 直接托底配套需求；但增量流向新能源与出口、燃气回落，配套按动力平台切换的判断继续成立。

The volume base for axles/couplings is solid — H1 heavy trucks +22.6% directly underpins fitment demand; but the increment flows to NEV and exports while gas recedes, so configuring by powertrain platform remains the operative call.

福田重卡上半年逾 9 万辆（+35% YoY）、欧曼 5.4 万辆（+30% YoY）——头部增速高于大盘（厂方口径）Foton heavy trucks topped 90k in H1 (+35% YoY) with Auman at 54k (+30% YoY) — leaders outgrowing the market (OEM-reported)5

厂方通稿的数据内核（营销话术已剥离）：福田重卡上半年销量超 9 万辆、同比 +35%；核心品牌欧曼 5.4 万辆、同比 +30%，均高于行业重型货车大盘增速（+22.6% YoY）。通稿另称新能源重卡上半年同比 +40% 以上、燃气牵引车 +近 60%，未给绝对量——分车企终端口径待第一商用车网月度数据交叉核实。The data core of the OEM release (marketing language stripped): Foton's heavy-truck sales exceeded 90k units in H1, +35% YoY; core brand Auman reached 54k, +30% YoY — both above the industry heavy-truck pace (+22.6% YoY). The release also claims H1 NEV heavy trucks +40%+ YoY and gas tractors up nearly 60% YoY without absolute figures — per-OEM retail data awaits cvworld.cn's monthly cross-check.

关键数据Key data福田重卡 H1 >9 万辆 +35% YoY（厂方口径）Foton HDT H1 >90k +35% YoY (OEM-reported)欧曼 H1 5.4 万辆 +30% YoYAuman H1 54k +30% YoY
对业务的含义Implication

头部车企增速高于大盘，份额向头部集中——对配套供应商意味着大客户集中度上升、平台化定点更集中；分车企数据待月度深更核实。

Leaders outgrowing the market means share concentration — for component suppliers, higher key-account concentration and more platform-level sourcing; per-OEM figures pending the monthly deep-dive.

03挂车 / 零部件与竞争对手Trailers, Components & Competitors3

电驱挂车轴进入早期商用：SAF-Holland TRAKr/TRAKe、BPW AxlePower 落地，欧盟开放 eTrailer 型式认证E-trailer axles enter early commercial use: SAF-Holland TRAKr/TRAKe and BPW AxlePower deployed as the EU opens eTrailer type approval6

Global Trailer 7/7 行业综述：电驱化正从牵引车延伸到挂车轴。SAF-Holland TRAKr/TRAKe 电驱轴以再生制动回收能量、经电机提供牵引辅助；BPW 与 Thermo King 共同开发的 AxlePower 以轴端回收能量驱动冷机（部分应用年减 CO₂ 至 20 吨）；德国初创 Trailer Dynamics 已部署约两打预量产电驱挂车，并获欧洲投资银行 2,500 万欧元贷款；澳大利亚 VE Motion 的主动电辅助功率至 295kW，宣称部分应用柴油消耗最多降 50%（厂方宣称口径）。车载电池 200–600+ kWh；欧盟已开放“eTrailer”型式认证，德国、丹麦有预量产车运行。障碍：电池重量与前期成本、部分市场法规滞后，以及整车动力学——Siemens 2025 年研究指出电驱轴改变整车稳定性、带来新挑战。商用化目前集中于欧洲与澳大利亚，整体渗透仍处早期阶段。Global Trailer's 7 Jul industry review: electrification is extending from tractors to trailer axles. SAF-Holland's TRAKr/TRAKe e-axles recover energy via regenerative braking and provide traction assistance through the motor; BPW's AxlePower, co-developed with Thermo King, powers refrigeration units from axle-end recuperation (up to 20t CO₂ saved annually in some applications); German startup Trailer Dynamics has deployed about two dozen pre-series e-trailers and secured a €25m EIB loan; Australia's VE Motion offers active electric assistance up to 295kW, claiming diesel savings of up to 50% in some applications (manufacturer-claimed). Onboard packs run 200–600+ kWh; the EU has opened “eTrailer” type approval, with pre-series units operating in Germany and Denmark. Barriers: battery weight and upfront cost, lagging regulation in some markets, and vehicle dynamics — Siemens research in 2025 flagged new stability challenges from powered trailer axles. Commercialization is so far concentrated in Europe and Australia, with penetration still at an early stage.

关键数据Key dataSAF-Holland TRAKr/TRAKe（再生制动+牵引辅助）SAF-Holland TRAKr/TRAKe (recuperation + traction assist)Trailer Dynamics 获 EIB €2,500 万贷款Trailer Dynamics: €25m EIB loan电辅助至 295kW · 电池 200–600+ kWhAssist up to 295kW · packs 200–600+ kWhEU eTrailer 型式认证已开放EU eTrailer type approval open
直接关切Directly material对业务的含义Implication

直接命中车轴产品线：挂车轴从无源部件变成动力部件，价值量与技术门槛同时抬升。若商用化节奏兑现，传统挂车轴供应商面临与整车电驱桥同构的替代压力——这是继电驱桥之后，产品线第二条需按电动化重新布局的战线。

A direct hit on the axle line: the trailer axle turns from a passive part into a powertrain component, raising both value content and technical barriers. If commercialization holds pace, conventional trailer-axle suppliers face the same substitution pressure e-axles brought to trucks — the second front, after drive e-axles, where the product line must be repositioned for electrification.

欧洲挂车 OEM 30 名高管联署，要求复审欧盟挂车 CO₂ 法规 (EU) 2024/1610Thirty European trailer-industry executives sign a joint call to review EU trailer CO₂ regulation (EU) 2024/16107

30 名欧洲挂车制造业高管 7/6 在比利时 Koningshooikt 联署声明，敦促欧委会与欧洲议会复审 (EU) 2024/1610：挂车无直接排放，却按 VECTO 工具的模拟排放考核；联署方认为该方法未反映挂车应用多样性、载荷差异与零排放牵引车渗透，可能倒逼降低载荷能力的设计——同样货量需要更多车次，总排放反而上升。两名欧洲议员到场。Thirty executives from Europe's trailer manufacturing industry signed a declaration in Koningshooikt, Belgium on 6 Jul urging the European Commission and Parliament to review Regulation (EU) 2024/1610: trailers produce no direct emissions yet are assessed on VECTO-simulated emissions; signatories argue the methodology ignores application diversity, payload variance and rising zero-emission tractor penetration, and could force payload-reducing designs — more journeys for the same freight, raising total emissions. Two MEPs attended.

关键数据Key data(EU) 2024/1610 · VECTO 方法论争议(EU) 2024/1610 · VECTO methodology dispute30 名高管联署（7/6）30 executives signed (6 Jul)
对业务的含义Implication

法规若按现方法执行，欧洲挂车设计将向轻量化与低模拟排放倾斜，影响车轴、支腿等部件选型与轻量化要求；对出口欧洲的亚洲挂车 OEM（含中集系）同样适用——跟踪欧委会是否启动复审。

If enforced as-is, the rule tilts European trailer design toward lightweighting and low simulated emissions, affecting axle and landing-gear specification; the same applies to Asian trailer OEMs exporting to Europe (including CIMC) — watch whether the Commission opens a review.

丹佛斯签约收购矿用软管商 Alfagomma——矿山流体件赛道整合Danfoss signs to acquire mining-hose major Alfagomma — consolidation in mining fluid conveyance8

Danfoss 7/9 宣布签署最终协议，收购意大利软管与接头制造商 Alfagomma（矿用液压软管主要供应商，Minetuff/Supertuff 耐磨护套系列），并入 Danfoss Power Solutions 旗下流体传输部门；金额未披露。Danfoss announced on 9 Jul a definitive agreement to acquire Italy's Alfagomma, a major supplier of hydraulic hoses and fittings to mining (Minetuff/Supertuff abrasion-resistant series), folding it into the Fluid Conveyance division of Danfoss Power Solutions; terms undisclosed.

关键数据Key data最终协议已签（金额未披露）Definitive agreement signed (terms undisclosed)
对业务的含义Implication

欧美系在矿山耗材件上继续做规模整合，矿用售后件集中度上升——与车轴/连接件不直接竞争，作为矿山供应链竞争格局参考。

Western players keep consolidating scale in mining consumables, raising aftermarket concentration — not directly competing with axles/couplings, but a reference point for the mining supply-chain landscape.

04矿用车 & 矿业Mining Vehicles & Mining1

Cat 707 宽体矿卡在南部非洲交付首两台——卡特彼勒进入中国车企主导的宽体自卸细分First two Cat 707 wide-body trucks delivered in southern Africa — Caterpillar enters the wide-body tipper segment defined by Chinese OEMs9

Cat 经销商 Barloworld Equipment 7/10 宣布向南非北开普省一矿业客户交付两台 Cat 707 宽体矿卡（WBT），为该机型在南部非洲的首两台。Cat 707 于 2026 年 1 月全球发布，集成 Cat C13 发动机与 Cat 自动变速箱，标配 VisionLink 车联网。宽体矿卡此前由中国厂商（同力、临工宽体机等）定义并主导，卡特彼勒以全球经销与售后网络切入该细分。Cat dealer Barloworld Equipment announced on 10 Jul the handover of two Cat 707 wide-body trucks (WBT) to a mining customer in South Africa's Northern Cape — the first two units sold in southern Africa. Launched globally in January 2026, the Cat 707 integrates a Cat C13 engine and Cat automatic transmission with VisionLink connectivity as standard. The wide-body segment was defined and dominated by Chinese OEMs (Tonly, LGMG and peers); Caterpillar is entering it with its global dealer and aftersales network.

关键数据Key data南部非洲首两台交付（北开普省）First two units in southern Africa (Northern Cape)2026 年 1 月全球发布 · Cat C13 + 自动变速箱Launched Jan 2026 · Cat C13 + automatic
直接关切Directly material对业务的含义Implication

宽体矿卡是矿用车轴的核心载体。Cat 入场把该品类从“中国产品”变成国际竞争品类——配套件（车轴/悬架）的竞争与机会同时放大；跟踪 Cat 707 是否向东南亚、蒙古等辖区矿区投放。

Wide-body trucks are the core carrier for mining axles. Cat's entry turns the category from a “Chinese product” into an internationally contested one — competition and opportunity in fitment (axles/suspension) both widen; watch whether the Cat 707 reaches Southeast Asian or Mongolian mining regions.

05亚洲市场Asia Markets6
东亚East Asia

日本：ARCHION 卡车基地 5→3 整合推进——羽村工厂 4/1 已移交丰田，中津并入川崎Japan: ARCHION's five-to-three truck-plant consolidation advances — Hamura handed to Toyota on 1 Apr, Nakatsu folds into Kawasaki10

日野与三菱扶桑合并后的 ARCHION，国内卡车生产基地将在 2028 年底前由 5 个整合为 3 个（保留川崎、古河、新田）：日野羽村工厂已于 2026-04-01 完成移交丰田，三菱扶桑中津工厂产能并入川崎。该计划 2025 年 10 月随公司定名公布，本周 Automotive World 再作梳理（原文需订阅）；腾出资源部分转投氢能与自动驾驶。产能与人员影响数字未公开披露。上期 ARCHION 二次发售（丰田/戴姆勒卡车持股各降至约 25%）之后，工厂整合执行未受股权变动影响。ARCHION, the merged Hino–Mitsubishi Fuso entity, will consolidate its Japanese truck plants from five to three by end-2028 (keeping Kawasaki, Koga and Nitta): Hino's Hamura plant was handed to Toyota on 1 Apr 2026, and Fuso's Nakatsu capacity folds into Kawasaki. The plan dates from the company's October 2025 naming announcement and was revisited by Automotive World this week (article paywalled); freed resources partly shift to hydrogen and autonomous driving. Capacity and headcount impacts remain undisclosed. Following last issue's secondary offering (Toyota and Daimler Truck each cut to ~25%), plant consolidation is proceeding unaffected by the shareholding change.

关键数据Key data5→3（2028 年底前）· 保留川崎/古河/新田5→3 by end-2028 · keeping Kawasaki/Koga/Nitta羽村工厂 2026-04-01 移交丰田Hamura handed to Toyota 1 Apr 2026
对业务的含义Implication

日本重卡产能收缩且集中，本土零部件配套盘子随之收缩；对外部供应商，窗口在整合后的采购体系重构期。

Japanese heavy-truck capacity is shrinking and concentrating, and the domestic components pie shrinks with it; for outside suppliers the window is the post-consolidation sourcing reset.

韩国：商用车上半年失速——现代 CV 52,157 辆（−16% YoY），建筑低迷与油价上涨压制Korea: commercial vehicles stall in H1 — Hyundai CV at 52,157 units (−16% YoY) under a construction slump and rising fuel costs11

Herald 经济 7/11：现代汽车 2026 上半年商用车 52,157 辆、−16% YoY（Carisyou 数据）；Tata Daewoo 1,593 辆、−7.1% YoY；进口商用车 1,968 辆、−8.7% YoY（KAIDA）。逆势的起亚 +61.2% YoY（29,998 辆）全靠新款轻型厢式车 PV5 Cargo（11,942 辆）拉动——轻型贡献，与重卡无关。归因为建筑业萎缩与油价上涨；韩国商用车买家 95% 以上为个体自雇车主，对建筑景气和燃料成本高度敏感。Tata Daewoo 高管称，若中东冲突推高油价的局面延续，行业需求冲击“可能扩大到 8–9%”。Herald Business (11 Jul): Hyundai sold 52,157 commercial vehicles in H1 2026, −16% YoY (Carisyou data); Tata Daewoo 1,593 units, −7.1% YoY; imported CVs 1,968 units, −8.7% YoY (KAIDA). Kia bucked the trend at +61.2% YoY (29,998 units) entirely on the new PV5 Cargo light van (11,942 units) — a light-vehicle effect, irrelevant to heavy trucks. Causes cited: a shrinking construction sector and rising fuel prices; over 95% of Korean CV buyers are owner-operators, highly sensitive to construction activity and fuel costs. A Tata Daewoo executive warned the demand hit could “widen to 8–9%” if the Middle East conflict keeps oil elevated.

关键数据Key data现代 CV H1 52,157 辆 −16% YoYHyundai CV H1 52,157 −16% YoYTata Daewoo −7.1% YoY · 进口 CV −8.7% YoYTata Daewoo −7.1% YoY · imported CVs −8.7% YoY
对业务的含义Implication

韩国是本周辖区内最弱的需求信号：重卡端随建筑与油价双向承压，现代 CV 双位数下滑；关注建筑订单与油价能否在三季度止跌。

Korea is the week's weakest demand signal in the territory: trucks are squeezed by construction and fuel costs, with Hyundai CV down double digits; watch whether construction orders and fuel prices stabilize in Q3.

东南亚Southeast Asia

越南：VAMA 上半年 149,761 辆（+15% YoY），商用车超 3.8 万辆——细分增速未公布Vietnam: VAMA H1 at 149,761 units (+15% YoY) with CVs above 38,000 — segment growth rate not yet published12

VAMA 口径（VietnamPlus 7/10 转述）：2026 上半年总销量 149,761 辆、+15% YoY，其中商用车超过 38,000 辆（该报道未给 CV 同比，不作推算）；6 月单月 31,104 辆、+4% MoM、−2.7% YoY。放款加速的宏观传导见宏观章。VAMA figures (via VietnamPlus, 10 Jul): H1 2026 total sales of 149,761 units, +15% YoY, including over 38,000 commercial vehicles (the report gives no CV YoY; none is inferred); June alone 31,104 units, +4% MoM, −2.7% YoY. The disbursement-driven macro transmission is covered in the macro chapter.

关键数据Key dataH1 149,761 辆 +15% YoY（总口径）H1 149,761 +15% YoY (total market)CV >38,000 辆（YoY 未公布）CVs >38,000 (YoY not published)
对业务的含义Implication

总量向好但商用车增速待核；中国 CBU 低价替代仍是结构风险——月度深更时核 VAMA CV 细分与中国对越出口数据。

The headline is healthy but CV growth needs confirming; low-priced Chinese CBUs remain the structural risk — verify VAMA's CV split and China-to-Vietnam export data in the monthly deep-dive.

印尼：6 月批发 77,550 辆（+12.0% YoY）连续第三个月增长——商用车细分待发布Indonesia: June wholesale of 77,550 units (+12.0% YoY), a third straight month of growth — CV breakdown pending13

GAIKINDO 数据（Indonesia Investments 7/9 转述）：6 月批发 77,550 辆、+12.0% YoY，连续第三个月增长；上半年批发 436,564 辆、+15.9% YoY，零售 433,848 辆、+10.5% YoY。商用车/卡车细分未随二手报道发布，待 GAIKINDO 统计文件（月度深更核实）。GAIKINDO data (via Indonesia Investments, 9 Jul): June wholesale reached 77,550 units, +12.0% YoY, a third consecutive month of growth; H1 wholesale totaled 436,564 units (+15.9% YoY) against retail of 433,848 (+10.5% YoY). The CV/truck breakdown has not appeared in secondary reports and awaits GAIKINDO's statistics file (monthly deep-dive).

关键数据Key data6 月批发 77,550 辆 +12.0% YoYJune wholesale 77,550 +12.0% YoYH1 436,564 辆 +15.9% YoY（总口径）H1 436,564 +15.9% YoY (total market)
对业务的含义Implication

总市场复苏与 BI 加息通道并存（见宏观章），商用车端结论等细分数据；矿区需求另由配额决定，两条线不混。

Total-market recovery coexists with BI's hiking cycle (see macro); the CV-side conclusion waits for the breakdown, and mining-zone demand is quota-driven — the two threads are kept separate.

南亚South Asia

印度：6 月 CV 零售 90,972 辆创同月新高（+16.88% YoY），HCV 仅 +8.26%——增长靠轻型与农村India: June CV retail hit a June record of 90,972 units (+16.88% YoY) while HCV grew just 8.26% — growth rides on light vehicles and rural demand14

FADA 数据（零售口径，区别于 SIAM 批发）：6 月商用车零售 90,972 辆、+16.88% YoY（2025 年 6 月 77,836 辆），创 6 月历史新高。细分：LCV 57,031 辆（+21.10% YoY）、MCV 9,714 辆（+16.81% YoY）、HCV 24,181 辆（+8.26% YoY）——重型明显慢于轻型。农村 CV 零售 +21.63% YoY、城市 +12.75% YoY。SIAM 6 月批发尚未发布（惯例 7 月中），发布后按 SIAM 口径更新 M&HCV。FADA data (retail basis, distinct from SIAM wholesale): June CV retail reached 90,972 units, +16.88% YoY (vs 77,836 in June 2025), a June record. By segment: LCV 57,031 (+21.10% YoY), MCV 9,714 (+16.81% YoY), HCV 24,181 (+8.26% YoY) — heavy clearly lags light. Rural CV retail rose 21.63% YoY against 12.75% in urban markets. SIAM's June wholesale is not yet out (customarily mid-July); M&HCV will be updated on the SIAM basis once published.

关键数据Key dataCV 零售 90,972 辆 +16.88% YoY（6 月新高）CV retail 90,972 +16.88% YoY (June record)HCV 24,181 辆 +8.26% YoYHCV 24,181 +8.26% YoY农村 +21.63% / 城市 +12.75% YoYRural +21.63% / urban +12.75% YoY
对业务的含义Implication

印度 CV 总量创新高，但重卡增速在细分中垫底——重卡端热度低于表面数字；等 SIAM M&HCV 批发确认趋势后再下判断。

India's CV headline is at a record, but heavy trucks grow slowest within it — HCV momentum is cooler than the headline suggests; hold judgment until SIAM's M&HCV wholesale confirms the trend.

西亚 / 中东West Asia / Middle East

土耳其：上半年商用车产量 +10% YoY、重型 +9%——乘用车拖累总产量 −6%Türkiye: H1 commercial-vehicle output +10% YoY with heavy CVs +9%, while passenger cars dragged total output down 6%15

OSD 数据（Hurriyet Daily News 7/12 转述）：2026 上半年汽车总产量 663,397 辆、−6% YoY，其中乘用车 −16% YoY（368,480 辆）；商用车产量 +10% YoY，重型商用车 +9% YoY（产量口径；6 月单月与销量细分未公开）。整车出口 462,552 辆、−12% YoY，其中商用车出口 +8% YoY；行业产能利用率 62%。OSD data (via Hurriyet Daily News, 12 Jul): H1 2026 total vehicle production was 663,397 units, −6% YoY, with passenger cars down 16% YoY (368,480); commercial-vehicle output rose 10% YoY and heavy CVs 9% YoY (production basis; June single-month and sales splits not public). Vehicle exports totaled 462,552 units (−12% YoY) with CV exports +8% YoY; industry capacity utilization stood at 62%.

关键数据Key dataCV 产量 H1 +10% YoY · HCV +9% YoYCV output H1 +10% YoY · HCV +9% YoY总产量 663,397 辆 −6% YoY（乘用车 −16%）Total output 663,397 −6% YoY (PC −16%)
对业务的含义Implication

土耳其是辖区西亚数据最实的锚点：商用车产量与出口双正、与乘用车反向——OSD 6 月细分表留待月度深更补齐。

Türkiye is the territory's firmest West Asia anchor: CV output and exports are both positive, diverging from passenger cars — OSD's June detail tables to be filled in at the monthly deep-dive.

06中国 OEM 出海China OEM Overseas Expansion1

6 月中国汽车出口 103.7 万辆首破百万（+75.1% YoY）——出口成为商用车增长的第二支柱（总口径）China's auto exports topped one million units in June for the first time (1.037m, +75.1% YoY) — exports become the second pillar of CV growth (all-vehicle basis)16

中汽协 7/9 发布：6 月汽车出口 103.7 万辆、+75.1% YoY，单月首次突破百万；上半年出口 509.6 万辆、+65.3% YoY。其中 6 月新能源汽车出口 52.3 万辆（同比增长 1.6 倍、+17.2% MoM，原文口径已回源确认）、传统燃料汽车出口 51.4 万辆（+32.7% YoY）。以上均为汽车总口径，重卡/商用车出口细分未随本次发布——待海关总署与第一商用车网月度细分。中汽协点评：内需承压、出口超预期增长形成稳定支撑。CAAM (9 Jul): June vehicle exports reached 1.037m units, +75.1% YoY — the first month above one million; H1 exports totaled 5.096m, +65.3% YoY. Within June, NEV exports were 523k (up 1.6× YoY, +17.2% MoM — wording verified against the original release) and conventional-fuel exports 514k (+32.7% YoY). All figures are all-vehicle basis; the heavy-truck/CV export split was not released — pending China Customs and cvworld.cn monthly details. CAAM's read: domestic demand is under pressure while exports over-delivered as the stabilizer.

关键数据Key data6 月出口 103.7 万辆 +75.1% YoY（首破百万）June exports 1.037m +75.1% YoY (first 1m month)H1 出口 509.6 万辆 +65.3% YoYH1 exports 5.096m +65.3% YoY新能源出口 6 月 52.3 万辆（同比 +1.6 倍，原文口径）NEV exports 523k in June (up 1.6× YoY, per release)
直接关切Directly material对业务的含义Implication

出口是中国车企消化产能的主通道，重卡出口盘子（东南亚/中亚/中东为主力流向）大概率同向放大——正面是中国系整车带动的配套需求，反面是辖区市场的 CBU 低价替代加剧（越南、印尼已现）；等海关重卡细分落地后按国别拆解。

Exports are Chinese OEMs' main outlet for capacity, and the heavy-truck export book (Southeast Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East as lead destinations) most likely expands in step — the upside is fitment demand riding Chinese trucks; the downside is intensified low-priced CBU substitution in territory markets (already visible in Vietnam and Indonesia). Break down by country once Customs' heavy-truck split lands.

来源Sources
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2Jakarta Post · Antara · Indonesia Miner（ESDM 部令） · Bank IndonesiaJakarta Post · Antara · Indonesia Miner (ESDM decree) · Bank Indonesia JP 煤价上限分析JP 腐败调查Antara 镍配额HBA 7 月（Indonesia Miner）BI 例会日程2026-07-07 / 11
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6Global TrailerGlobal Trailer globaltrailermag.com2026-07-07
7Global TrailerGlobal Trailer globaltrailermag.com2026-07-06
8International MiningInternational Mining im-mining.com2026-07-09
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10Automotive World · Nikkei · ARCHIONAutomotive World · Nikkei · ARCHION Automotive WorldNikkei（2025-10 计划公布）羽村移交披露 （部分需订阅）(partly paywalled)2026-07-10
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12VietnamPlus（VAMA 数据）VietnamPlus (VAMA data) vietnamplus.vn2026-07-10
13Indonesia Investments（GAIKINDO 数据）Indonesia Investments (GAIKINDO data) indonesia-investments.comGAIKINDO 统计页2026-07-09
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16中国商用汽车网（中汽协数据）cv.ce.cn (CAAM data) cv.ce.cn2026-07-10