本周主线Bottom Line
中汽协官方 9 月重卡数落定 98,700 辆、同比降 6.5%、环比升 14.7%，比上期第一商用车网 9.5 万 / −10% 的估计略好；中国内需仍偏弱，新能源重卡约 3.3 万辆、同比涨约四成、渗透逼近三分之一——电驱桥替代传统车轴这条线今年继续走，是车轴配套最该盯的一处。需求最旺的是印度：SIAM 口径 7–9 月中重卡货运卡车 102,908 辆、同比涨 38.4%。TRATON 三季度销 78,900 辆、同比涨 10%，靠美国回暖的 International（+48%）拉动，斯堪尼亚靠中国如皋新厂爬产。中国 10/15 成品油调价搁浅、柴油年内第二次没降，四季度车队没等到降本。
CAAM's official September heavy-truck print landed at 98,700 units, −6.5% YoY and +14.7% MoM — a touch better than the CVWorld estimate of ~95,000 / −10% we used last week. China's home demand stays soft while NEV heavy trucks ran about 33,000, up roughly 40% YoY, with penetration nearing one-third — the line where e-drive axles replace conventional ones keeps running, and it is the one axle makers should watch. Demand is hottest in India: SIAM shows Jul–Sep M&HCV goods carriers at 102,908, +38.4% YoY. TRATON's Q3 sales were 78,900, +10% YoY, pulled by a US-led rebound at International (+48%), with Scania leaning on its new Rugao plant in China. China's Oct 15 fuel window passed with no change — diesel uncut for the second time this year, so fleets got no cost relief into Q4.
宏观Macro
中国 10/15 成品油调价搁浅、柴油年内第二次未降，中国 1–8 月固投 −7.2%、房地产投资 −19.9%，压工程 / 自卸需求；越南 10/16 柴油再降 181 盾 / 升至 18,423 盾；印尼 10 月下半月镍基准价(HMA)降至 15,847.67 美元 / 吨、环比 −2.91%；泰国柴油靠炼厂折让压住、折让 10/31 到期，油基金赤字约 920 亿铢。
China's Oct 15 fuel window passed with no change — diesel uncut for a second time this year — while China's Jan–Aug fixed-asset investment ran −7.2% and property −19.9%, weighing on construction and tipper demand. Vietnam cut diesel another VND 181/L to VND 18,423 on Oct 16; Indonesia's 2H-October nickel benchmark (HMA) fell to US$15,847.67/t, −2.91%; Thailand holds diesel down via a refinery discount that expires Oct 31, with the oil fund roughly THB 92bn in deficit.
信号Signal
中汽协官方 9 月重卡 98,700 辆、同比 −6.5%、环比 +14.7%（对账上期第一商用车网 9.5 万 / −10% 估计）；新能源重卡约 3.3 万辆、同比涨约四成，渗透逼近三分之一。柴油重卡在缩、电动重卡在扩，落到车轴就是电驱桥替代传统后桥。
CAAM's official September heavy trucks were 98,700, −6.5% YoY and +14.7% MoM (reconciling last week's CVWorld estimate of ~95k / −10%); NEV heavy trucks ran about 33,000, up roughly 40% YoY, penetration nearing one-third. Diesel shrinks while electric grows — on the axle, that is e-drive axles taking over from conventional rear axles.
需求Demand
印度最旺：SIAM 口径 7–9 月中重卡货运卡车 102,908 辆、同比 +38.4%，总商用车 309,063 辆、+28.7%，CV 出口 41,000+ 辆、+72.5%；巴基斯坦 7–9 月卡车 +53%；中国煤价淡季破千（秦皇岛 5500 大卡 10/13 报 1,013 元 / 吨、同比 +42.3%）托住煤运。
India is hottest: SIAM's Jul–Sep M&HCV goods carriers reached 102,908, +38.4% YoY, total CV 309,063 (+28.7%), CV exports 41,000+ (+72.5%); Pakistan's Jul–Sep trucks were +53%. In China, off-season coal strength (Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal at RMB 1,013/t on Oct 13, +42.3% YoY) keeps coal-haul volume up.
结论Verdict
把中国重卡电动化（电驱桥替代）当今年车轴主线继续跟；印度中重卡配置权重维持上调一档；印尼矿卡需求随镍价再走弱、按配额滚动排产。接下来先看 10/19 中国 Q3 GDP 与 9 月固投、10/20 中国 LPR、10/20–21 印尼央行、10/31 泰国柴油折让到期。
Keep China's heavy-truck electrification (e-axle substitution) as this year's core line for axle content; hold India M&HCV configuration weight up a notch; read Indonesia mining-truck demand as softer with nickel and phase supply to the quotas. Next, watch China's Oct 19 Q3 GDP and September FAI, the Oct 20 LPR, Indonesia's Oct 20–21 central-bank meeting and Thailand's Oct 31 diesel-discount expiry.
本周要点Key points
98,700 辆 / −6.5%98,700 / −6.5%中汽协官方 9 月重卡 98,700 辆，同比 −6.5%、环比 +14.7%；1–9 月累计 92.94 万辆、同比 +12.96%（上期第一商用车网估计 9.5 万 / −10%，官方口径略好）。CAAM's official September heavy trucks were 98,700, −6.5% YoY and +14.7% MoM; Jan–Sep totalled 929,400, +12.96% YoY (last week's CVWorld estimate was ~95k / −10%; the official read is a touch better).
+~40%+~40%中国 9 月新能源重卡约 3.3 万辆、同比涨约四成（第一商用车网批发）；上险口径 30,960 辆、1–9 月 20.75 万辆、同比 +67%，渗透约三分之一。China's September NEV heavy trucks were about 33,000, up roughly 40% YoY (CVWorld wholesale); on the insurance-registration caliber 30,960, with Jan–Sep at 207,522, +67% YoY and penetration near one-third.
+38.4%+38.4%印度 SIAM 口径 7–9 月中重卡货运卡车 102,908 辆、同比 +38.4%；总商用车 309,063 辆、+28.7%；CV 出口 41,000+ 辆、+72.5%。India's SIAM Jul–Sep M&HCV goods carriers were 102,908, +38.4% YoY; total CV 309,063 (+28.7%); CV exports 41,000+ (+72.5%).
78,900 辆 / +10%78,900 / +10%TRATON 三季度销 78,900 辆、同比 +10%；International（前 Navistar）1.99 万辆、+48%（美国回暖），斯堪尼亚 2.21 万辆、+3%（中国如皋新厂 + 巴西），MAN −1%。TRATON's Q3 sales were 78,900, +10% YoY; International (ex-Navistar) 19,900, +48% (US rebound); Scania 22,100, +3% (new Rugao plant in China plus Brazil); MAN −1%.
15,847 美元/吨$15,847/t印尼 10 月下半月镍基准价(HMA) 15,847.67 美元 / 吨、环比 −2.91%；泰国柴油靠炼厂折让压住、折让 10/31 到期，油基金赤字约 920 亿铢、仍在扩大。Indonesia's 2H-October nickel benchmark (HMA) was US$15,847.67/t, −2.91%; Thailand holds diesel down via a refinery discount expiring Oct 31, with the oil fund about THB 92bn in deficit and widening.
正在发生Happening now
中国：10/15 成品油调价搁浅、柴油年内第二次未降——四季度车队没等到降本China: Oct 15 fuel window passes with no change — diesel uncut a second time this year, no Q4 cost relief for fleets1
中国发改委 10 月 15 日成品油调价窗口以「不作调整」收尾，为 2026 年第二次搁浅——此前市场预期柴油小幅下调，被国际原油受中东地缘因素回升顶回。叠加中国 1–8 月固定资产投资同比 −7.2%、房地产投资 −19.9%，工程与自卸车需求本就偏弱。中国 Q3 GDP 与 9 月固投将于 10/19–20 公布。China's NDRC closed the Oct 15 fuel-price window with no change — the second stall of 2026 — after an expected small diesel cut was reversed by crude rebounding on Mideast geopolitics. With China's Jan–Aug fixed-asset investment at −7.2% YoY and property investment −19.9%, construction and tipper demand was already soft. Q3 GDP and September FAI are due Oct 19–20.
柴油调价：0（搁浅）Diesel change: 0 (stalled)中国 1–8 月固投 −7.2%China Jan–Aug FAI −7.2%房地产投资 −19.9%Property investment −19.9%
事件What happened中国 10/15 成品油调价搁浅，柴油年内第二次未降。China's Oct 15 fuel window stalled — diesel uncut for the second time this year.
逻辑Why it matters柴油是货运重卡运营成本（TCO）里最大的单项；没降价意味着四季度旺季车队运营成本没松动。同期中国固投与房地产投资下行，直接压制工程车、自卸车的采购与出勤。Diesel is the single biggest line in truck operating cost (TCO); no cut means fleet costs do not ease into the Q4 peak. At the same time China's FAI and property investment are falling, directly curbing construction- and tipper-truck buying and utilisation.
对市场For the market中国工程类重卡（自卸、搅拌、牵引短倒）四季度需求面难有成本助力；货运量更偏向出口物流（牵引车）而非中国内地工程运输。China's construction-linked heavy trucks (tippers, mixers, short-haul tractors) get no cost tailwind into Q4; freight skews to export logistics (tractors) over domestic construction haul.
对业务For the business对车轴 / 自卸车桥 / 工程悬架配套偏淡，增量仍落在出口车型与新能源底盘，而非中国内地传统柴油工程盘。Soft for axle, tipper-axle and construction-suspension content; the growth still sits in export models and NEV chassis, not China's traditional diesel construction base.
我的判断My take：中国柴油没降本叠加固投弱，工程类重卡四季度需求缺成本面与投资面的双重助力；配套增量要去出口与新能源那边找。No diesel relief plus weak FAI leaves China's construction heavy trucks without either a cost or an investment tailwind into Q4; the content growth is in exports and NEV, not here.
前提Assumes国际原油在中东地缘下不快速回落，中国固投与房地产投资维持弱势。Crude does not fall fast under Mideast risk, and China's FAI and property investment stay weak.
反向信号What would change this下一窗口（10 月底）柴油明显下调，或四季度专项债 / 基建发力使中国固投企稳回升。The next window (end-October) cuts diesel clearly, or Q4 special-bond/infrastructure spending stabilises FAI.
后续盯What to watch next中国发改委下一成品油窗口；10/19 NBS Q3 GDP 与 9 月固投；中国交通运输部 9 月公路货运量。China's next NDRC fuel window; NBS Q3 GDP and September FAI on Oct 19; China MoT September road-freight volume.
正在发生Happening now
越南：10/16 柴油再降 181 盾 / 升至 18,423 盾，连续第三个窗口下调Vietnam: another VND 181/L diesel cut to VND 18,423 on Oct 16, a third straight window lower2
越南工贸部与财政部 10 月 16 日 15 时起调价，柴油(0.05S)下调 181 盾 / 升至 18,423 盾 / 升，为 10 月连续第三个窗口下调；汽油则小幅上调（E5 RON92 +88、RON95 +174）。调价后 Petrolimex、PV Oil 又在限价基础上让利约 300 盾 / 升至 10 月 29 日。Vietnam's Ministries of Industry & Trade and Finance reset prices from 15:00 on Oct 16, cutting diesel (0.05S) VND 181/L to VND 18,423/L — a third straight October window lower — while petrol rose slightly (E5 RON92 +88, RON95 +174). After the reset, Petrolimex and PV Oil sold about VND 300/L below the cap through Oct 29.
柴油 −181 盾 / 升 → 18,423Diesel −VND181/L → 18,423连续第 3 个窗口下调3rd straight window lower零售再让利 ~300 盾 / 升Retail ~VND300/L below cap
事件What happened越南 10/16 柴油再降 181 盾 / 升，叠加零售让利，10 月柴油连续三次走低。Vietnam cut diesel another VND 181/L on Oct 16; with retail discounts, October diesel is down three windows running.
逻辑Why it matters柴油便宜直接降低越南车队运营成本，利于购车与出勤；但上期越南 9 月制造业 PMI 回落至 51.9、新出口订单连降两月，货运增长放缓会抵消一部分需求。Cheaper diesel directly lowers Vietnamese fleet running costs, helping purchases and utilisation; but September PMI eased to 51.9 with export orders down two months, so slower freight growth offsets part of the demand.
对市场For the market越南重卡需求两头拉扯：柴油便宜利 TCO（偏暖），出口订单降温压货运（偏冷）；9 月 VAMA 商用车 9,807 辆仍有韧性。Vietnam heavy-truck demand is pulled both ways: cheap diesel helps TCO, cooling export orders weigh on freight; September VAMA CV of 9,807 shows some resilience.
对业务For the business越南是中国重卡与挂车配套的东盟重点市场；柴油降价利整车性价比，配套按季度滚动看 VAMA 商用车口径更稳，别线性外推。Vietnam is a key ASEAN market for Chinese heavy-truck and trailer content; cheaper diesel helps vehicle value, but read VAMA's CV line on a rolling quarterly basis rather than extrapolating.
我的判断My take：越南柴油便宜短期利车队，但出口订单连降两月，重卡需求别按单边上行看。Cheap diesel helps Vietnamese fleets near-term, but with export orders down two months, don't read heavy-truck demand as one-way up.
前提Assumes越南维持周度成品油调价机制、出口不进一步恶化。Vietnam keeps its weekly fuel-reset mechanism and exports don't worsen further.
反向信号What would change this新出口订单继续下滑拖累四季度货运，或柴油随原油重新转涨。Export orders keep sliding and drag Q4 freight, or diesel turns back up with crude.
后续盯What to watch next越南每周四成品油窗口；VAMA 10 月商用车销量；美越 301 案 11/29 节点。Vietnam's weekly fuel windows; VAMA October CV sales; the US–Vietnam Section 301 Nov 29 node.
早期信号Early signal
印尼：10 月下半月镍基准价(HMA)降至 15,847.67 美元 / 吨、环比 −2.91%，矿区利润再压Indonesia: 2H-October nickel benchmark (HMA) falls to US$15,847.67/t, −2.91% — miner margins squeezed again3
印尼能矿部(ESDM)把 10 月 16–31 日的镍基准价(HMA)定在 15,847.67 美元 / 吨，较上半月的 16,322.67 美元 / 吨再降约 475 美元、环比 −2.91%；对应矿石 HPM 按品位分档。上期(W42)镍 HPM 已在 16,323 美元 / 吨低位，这是连续走弱。印尼央行例会 10/20–21，9 月守 5.75%。Indonesia's ESDM set the Oct 16–31 nickel benchmark (HMA) at US$15,847.67/t, down about US$475 from 16,322.67 in the first half, −2.91%; ore HPM follows by grade. After last week's (W42) nickel HPM already sitting low at US$16,323/t, this is a further slide. Bank Indonesia meets Oct 20–21, having held at 5.75% in September.
镍 HMA 15,847.67 美元 / 吨Nickel HMA $15,847.67/t环比 −2.91%（上半月 16,322.67）−2.91% (1H: 16,322.67)印尼 BI 利率 5.75%（9 月持平）BI-Rate 5.75% (Sep hold)
事件What happened印尼镍基准价(HMA)下半月再降 2.91% 至 15,847.67 美元 / 吨，延续上期弱势。Indonesia's 2H-October nickel benchmark fell another 2.91% to US$15,847.67/t, extending last week's weakness.
逻辑Why it matters镍价走低压缩苏拉威西（Morowali / Weda Bay）矿山与冶炼利润，抑制扩产资本开支与矿石短倒运量；镍矿开采与短倒量直接决定印尼宽体矿卡、矿用自卸车需求。Falling nickel compresses miner and smelter margins in Sulawesi (Morowali/Weda Bay), curbing expansion capex and ore-haul tonnage; mined and shuttled ore sets Indonesia's wide-body and rigid mining-truck demand.
对市场For the market印尼矿卡需求偏冷一侧占上风：价格低位压采掘与扩产积极性，除非 RKAB 配额或下游扩产对冲——本周无配额放量信号。The soft side has the upper hand for Indonesia mining-truck demand: low prices cool mining and expansion appetite unless RKAB quotas or downstream builds offset — no quota-loosening signal this week.
对业务For the business印尼镍矿区是中国宽体矿卡与矿用车轴的主力出口场景；镍价再弱时，当地矿卡与车轴配套宜按配额滚动排产，不按单边扩张铺货。Indonesia's nickel belt is a main export scene for Chinese wide-body mining trucks and mining axles; with nickel softer, phase local mining-truck and axle supply to the quotas rather than stocking for one-way growth.
我的判断My take：印尼镍价连续两期走弱、配额未松，矿卡需求先按谨慎看，等 RKAB 与镍价回稳信号。Indonesian nickel has slid two periods running with quotas unchanged; read mining-truck demand cautiously and wait on RKAB and a price floor.
前提Assumes印尼维持下游优先(hilirisasi)政策、RKAB 配额不大幅放量。Indonesia keeps downstream-first (hilirisasi) policy and RKAB quotas stay restrained.
反向信号What would change this镍价回升至 18,000 美元 / 吨以上并带动配额放量，或下游冶炼大举扩产拉动矿石需求。Nickel rebounds above US$18,000/t and quotas loosen, or downstream smelting expands sharply and pulls ore demand.
后续盯What to watch next印尼 ESDM 的 HMA / HPM 半月基准与 RKAB 批复清单；10/20–21 印尼央行例会。Indonesia ESDM's half-monthly HMA/HPM benchmarks and RKAB approvals; the Oct 20–21 Bank Indonesia meeting.
早期信号Early signal
泰国：柴油靠炼厂折让 + 油基金压住、折让 10/31 到期，四季度有成本悬崖Thailand: diesel held down by a refinery discount and the oil fund, both facing an Oct 31 cliff4
泰国靠一项 4 铢 / 升的炼厂出厂折让（9 月 16 日至 10 月 31 日）叠加油基金补贴（约 8.62 铢 / 升）压低零售柴油，10 月 13 日零售柴油约 42.94 铢 / 升。但油基金赤字约 −920 亿铢、仍以每日约 7 亿铢扩大，政府拟备 1,000 亿铢借款兜底。折让 10/31 到期、泰国央行例会 10/28。Thailand holds retail diesel down with a THB 4/L ex-refinery discount (Sep 16–Oct 31) plus an oil-fund subsidy (~THB 8.62/L); retail diesel was about THB 42.94/L on Oct 13. But the oil fund is roughly THB 92bn in deficit and widening ~THB 700m/day, and the government is preparing a THB 100bn borrowing backstop. The discount expires Oct 31 and the central bank meets Oct 28.
零售柴油 ~42.94 铢 / 升Retail diesel ~THB 42.94/L折让 4 铢 / 升、10/31 到期THB 4/L discount, ends Oct 31油基金赤字 ~−920 亿铢Oil fund ~−THB 92bn
事件What happened泰国以炼厂折让 + 油基金压低柴油，折让 10/31 到期、基金赤字扩大。Thailand caps diesel via a refinery discount plus the oil fund; the discount expires Oct 31 and the fund deficit widens.
逻辑Why it matters补贴压住柴油，短期保住泰国车队的运营成本与货运利润；但基金赤字到极限、折让到期后柴油或跳涨，TCO 面临反向冲击。The subsidies hold diesel down and protect Thai fleet costs and freight margins near-term; but with the fund stretched and the discount expiring, diesel could jump and hit TCO the other way.
对市场For the market泰国重卡 / 皮卡需求当下有低柴油价托底，但 11 月起若柴油跳涨、运营成本回升，购车与出勤意愿或转弱。Thai heavy-truck and pickup demand is underpinned by cheap diesel now, but if diesel jumps from November and costs rise, buying and utilisation appetite may soften.
对业务For the business泰国是中国重卡与挂车出海的东盟市场之一；柴油补贴到期是本业务四季度要盯的成本拐点，配套排产别把当前低油价当常态。Thailand is one ASEAN market for Chinese heavy-truck and trailer exports; the subsidy expiry is the Q4 cost turn to watch — don't plan content around today's low diesel as the norm.
我的判断My take：泰国柴油现在便宜是补贴撑的，不是市场价；10/31 折让到期才是真正的成本变量，比当前的低价更该盯。Thai diesel is cheap because of subsidies, not the market; the Oct 31 discount expiry is the real cost variable to watch — more than today's low price.
前提Assumes泰国油基金不提前退出补贴、折让如期执行到 10/31。Thailand's oil fund doesn't exit subsidies early and the discount runs to Oct 31 as scheduled.
反向信号What would change this政府延长折让或扩大借款兜底继续压价，或原油回落使补贴压力自然缓解。The government extends the discount or borrows more to keep prices down, or crude falls and eases the subsidy strain.
后续盯What to watch next泰国能源部柴油零售价与油基金余额；10/28 泰国央行例会；10/31 折让到期后首个调价。Thailand's MoE diesel retail price and oil-fund balance; the Oct 28 BoT meeting; the first price move after the Oct 31 expiry.
直接相关Directly relevant
中汽协官方 9 月重卡 98,700 辆、同比 −6.5%：对账上期第一商用车网 9.5 万 / −10% 估计CAAM official September heavy trucks 98,700, −6.5% YoY: reconciling last week's CVWorld estimate of ~95k / −10%5
中汽协(CAAM)官方 9 月重卡销量 98,700 辆、同比 −6.5%、环比 +14.7%；1–9 月累计 92.94 万辆、同比 +12.96%，为近年同期高位。上期我们用第一商用车网估计（约 9.5 万辆、同比 −10%、含出口 + 新能源口径），官方口径略好、方向一致：中国内需偏弱，出口（9 月同比约 +21%，非洲 / 拉美 / 中亚拉动）与新能源是两台发动机。两个口径并存系统计范围差异，非矛盾。CAAM's official September heavy-truck sales were 98,700, −6.5% YoY and +14.7% MoM; Jan–Sep totalled 929,400, +12.96% YoY, a multi-year high for the period. Last week we used the CVWorld estimate (~95,000, −10% YoY, a wholesale caliber including exports and NEV); the official read is a touch better and points the same way — China's home demand is soft, with exports (about +21% YoY in September, pulled by Africa, Latin America and Central Asia) and NEV the two engines. The two calibers differ in scope, not in direction.
官方 9 月 98,700 辆Official Sep 98,700同比 −6.5% / 环比 +14.7%−6.5% YoY / +14.7% MoM1–9 月 92.94 万（+12.96%）Jan–Sep 929.4k (+12.96%)出口 ~+21% 同比Exports ~+21% YoY
对业务For the business：官方口径坐定中国重卡「内需弱、出口 + 新能源撑量」的格局；对车轴配套而言，增量集中在出口车型与新能源底盘，中国内地传统柴油盘仍在收缩。The official print settles the picture — soft domestic demand, exports and NEV carrying volume; for axle content, the growth sits in export models and NEV chassis while China's traditional diesel base keeps shrinking.
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中国 9 月新能源重卡约 3.3 万辆、同比 +40%：渗透逼近三分之一，电驱桥替代传统后桥China September NEV heavy trucks ~33,000, +40% YoY: penetration near one-third, e-axles replacing conventional ones6
中国 9 月新能源重卡约 3.3 万辆、同比涨约四成（第一商用车网批发估计）；上险口径 30,960 辆、1–9 月累计 207,522 辆、同比 +67%，前三为中国重汽、三一、一汽解放，当月渗透约三分之一。批发与上险两个口径数值不同（批发含出口与库存），不是矛盾。电动化落到车轴，分两条：换电 / 集成电驱车型直接改写后桥，电驱箱车型则保留传动轴与驱动桥。China's September NEV heavy trucks were about 33,000, up roughly 40% YoY (CVWorld wholesale estimate); on the insurance-registration caliber 30,960, with Jan–Sep at 207,522, +67% YoY — SINOTRUK, Sany and FAW Jiefang lead, and monthly penetration is about one-third. The wholesale and registration calibers differ (wholesale carries exports and stock), not a contradiction. On the axle, two paths: swap and integrated e-drive models rewrite the rear axle outright, while e-drive-box models keep the propshaft and drive axle.
9 月 ~3.3 万辆（批发）Sep ~33k (wholesale)同比 +~40%+~40% YoY上险 30,960 / 1–9 月 20.75 万（+67%）Reg. 30,960 / Jan–Sep 207.5k (+67%)渗透 ~1/3Penetration ~1/3
对业务For the business：新能源重卡逼近三分之一渗透，是车轴业务今年最该盯的一条线：产品结构要跟着中国重卡动力路线分叉——换电 / 集成电驱改后桥，电驱箱保留驱动桥，车轴厂两头都要有对应料号。NEV heavy trucks nearing one-third penetration is the line axle makers must watch: product mix must follow China's powertrain split — swap/integrated e-drive rewrites the rear axle, e-drive-box keeps the drive axle, so axle makers need parts for both.
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TRATON 三季度 78,900 辆、同比 +10%：International +48% 靠美国回暖，斯堪尼亚靠中国如皋新厂TRATON Q3 78,900, +10% YoY: International +48% on a US rebound, Scania leans on its new Rugao plant in China7
TRATON（斯堪尼亚 / MAN / International / 大众卡客车母公司）三季度销 78,900 辆、同比 +10%，1–9 月 23.04 万辆、同比 +3%。分品牌：International（前 Navistar）1.99 万辆、+48%（美国需求回暖主力）；斯堪尼亚 2.21 万辆、+3%（中国如皋新厂爬产 + 巴西 Move Brasil 贷款计划）；MAN 2.45 万辆、−1%；大众卡客车 1.25 万辆、+5%。对照之下，中国重卡 9 月出口同比约 +21%，两条出海曲线同期都在走。TRATON (parent of Scania, MAN, International and VW Truck & Bus) sold 78,900 in Q3, +10% YoY, with Jan–Sep at 230,400, +3%. By brand: International (ex-Navistar) 19,900, +48% (the US-demand rebound driver); Scania 22,100, +3% (ramp-up of its new Rugao plant in China plus Brazil's Move Brasil loan programme); MAN 24,500, −1%; VW Truck & Bus 12,500, +5%. For contrast, China's heavy-truck exports rose about 21% YoY in September — both overseas curves are moving at once.
集团 78,900（+10%）Group 78,900 (+10%)International 19,900（+48%）International 19,900 (+48%)斯堪尼亚 22,100（+3%，中国如皋 + 巴西）Scania 22,100 (+3%, Rugao China + Brazil)MAN 24,500（−1%）MAN 24,500 (−1%)
对业务For the business：TRATON 与上期戴姆勒卡车同样靠北美回暖拉动，欧洲整车需求平淡；对中国车轴出海客户而言，北美量起、斯堪尼亚又在中国如皋扩产，既是整车配套机会也是本土竞争压力，北美与欧洲要分开排产。Like Daimler Truck last week, TRATON is pulled by a North American rebound with flat European demand; for Chinese axle exporters, North America rising and Scania expanding at Rugao in China are both an OEM-content chance and local competitive pressure — plan North America and Europe separately.
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斯堪尼亚 SUPER 6×4 牵引车在中国上市：双后桥驱动、三档后桥速比、全气囊悬挂Scania SUPER 6×4 tractor launches in China: tandem-drive rear axles, three ratios, full-air suspension8
10 月 17 日斯堪尼亚在中国（如皋）正式推出全新 SUPER 6×4 牵引车，搭 SUPER 动力链、提供 500 / 560 马力两档。车型采用双后桥驱动结构，面向山区坡道、重载起步等复杂工况；提供 2.71 / 2.85 / 3.08 三种后桥速比、全气囊悬挂（含可调高度）。斯堪尼亚称如皋国产版相比进口版与上一代有可观油耗节约（厂商口径，未披露具体数值）。On Oct 17 Scania launched its new SUPER 6×4 tractor in China (Rugao), on the SUPER powertrain with 500/560 hp options. It uses a tandem-drive (6×4) rear-axle layout for hill grades and heavy start-off, offering 2.71/2.85/3.08 rear-axle ratios and full-air suspension with adjustable ride height. Scania says the locally built Rugao version delivers meaningful fuel savings versus the imported and prior models (OEM claim, no figure disclosed).
双后桥 6×4 驱动6×4 tandem drive后桥速比 2.71 / 2.85 / 3.08Axle ratios 2.71/2.85/3.08500 / 560 马力、全气囊悬挂500/560 hp, full-air susp.
对业务For the business：斯堪尼亚把高端双后桥牵引在中国国产化，直接对标中国本土 6×4 牵引的驱动桥与悬架配置；三档后桥速比 + 全气囊悬挂是车轴 / 悬架竞品的参数对标点，国产化也意味着其配套本地采购会加深。Scania localising a premium tandem-drive tractor in China directly benchmarks local 6×4 drive-axle and suspension specs; the three axle ratios and full-air suspension are reference points for axle/suspension rivals, and localisation means its content sourcing will deepen locally.
ARCHION（扶桑 + 日野）满一年：戴姆勒卡车、丰田各持 25%，目标 28 万辆、85% 共享平台ARCHION (FUSO + HINO) at one year: Daimler Truck and Toyota 25% each, targeting 280,000 units on 85% shared platforms9
三菱扶桑与日野整合的控股公司 ARCHION 自 2026 年 4 月 1 日运营、东京证交所上市，扶桑与日野仍为独立品牌。股权上戴姆勒卡车、丰田各持 25%，ARCHION 100% 持有扶桑与日野。据 Forbes 对 ARCHION 与扶桑高管的专访，公司目标约 28 万辆销量、约 85% 全球产量落在共享平台，中型卡车平台年底起向单一平台整合（均为目标、非实绩）。ARCHION, the holding company integrating Mitsubishi Fuso and Hino, has run since Apr 1, 2026 and is listed in Tokyo, with FUSO and HINO staying distinct brands. Daimler Truck and Toyota hold 25% each, and ARCHION owns 100% of both. In a Forbes interview with ARCHION and FUSO executives, the company targets about 280,000 units of sales and roughly 85% of global output on shared platforms, consolidating medium-duty truck platforms toward a single one from year-end (targets, not realised results).
戴姆勒卡车 / 丰田 各 25%Daimler Truck / Toyota 25% each目标 ~28 万辆Target ~280k units~85% 共享平台（目标）~85% shared platforms (target)
对业务For the business：扶桑 + 日野共用平台若落地，日本中重卡的车桥 / 底盘件会向共享规格集中，供应商料号池收窄、单一平台采购量放大；对绑日系中重卡的配套商，是集中采购的机会也是被平台标准化挤出的风险。If FUSO and HINO share platforms, Japanese medium/heavy-truck axle and chassis parts converge on common specs — a narrower parts pool but larger single-platform volumes; for suppliers tied to Japanese medium/heavy trucks, a concentration opportunity and a standardisation squeeze at once.
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中国煤矿 / 工程纯电重卡产品线两则（厂商口径）：解放 J6L 子母车、豪沃 TS 新能源自卸Two China coal-mine/construction pure-electric rigs (OEM figures): FAW J6L mother-child, SINOTRUK HOWO TS tipper10
中国重卡厂在高煤价、严合规下继续推煤矿 / 工程纯电车型。一汽解放 J6L 新能源子母车主打煤炭 / 砂石 / 矿石短倒：自研子母车互充（高压线束一键切换），综合续航约 600 公里、互充约 30 分钟，称运营效率较同类高约 12.5%。中国重汽豪沃 TS 新能源自卸搭 600kW 电机（816 马力）、600kWh 电池、双枪 600A 快充、制动能量回收率 94.51%；底盘用三层贯通车架（8+8+8mm）、14 片板簧、中国重汽曼技术 28 吨级双级减速桥，承载力提升 14%–18%。以上均为厂商口径、未经第三方运营数据验证。Chinese truck makers keep pushing coal-mine and construction pure-electric models under high coal prices and tight compliance. FAW Jiefang's J6L mother-child rig targets coal/sand/ore shuttles: in-house mother-child cross-charging (one-switch high-voltage link), combined range about 600 km, cross-charge about 30 minutes, with claimed operating efficiency about 12.5% above peers. SINOTRUK's HOWO TS NEV tipper carries a 600kW motor (816 hp), a 600kWh battery, dual-gun 600A fast charging and 94.51% braking-energy recovery; the chassis uses a three-layer through-frame (8+8+8mm), 14-leaf springs and SINOTRUK's MAN-tech 28-tonne two-stage hub-reduction axle, lifting load capacity 14–18%. All are OEM figures, not third-party verified.
J6L 综合续航 ~600km（厂商）J6L ~600km combined (OEM)豪沃 TS 制动回收 94.51%（厂商）HOWO TS 94.51% regen (OEM)28 吨级双级减速桥、承载 +14~18%28t two-stage axle, load +14–18%
对业务For the business：煤矿 / 工程纯电重卡在高煤价下有经济账，配套重心落在电驱后桥、双级减速（轮边）矿用车桥、三层车架与重载 / 多片簧悬架；子母车互充这类场景还放大高压电气与连接件需求。厂商参数需待第三方运营数据验证。Coal-mine and construction pure-electric trucks make economic sense at high coal prices, putting content on e-drive rear axles, two-stage hub-reduction mining axles, three-layer frames and heavy multi-leaf suspensions; mother-child cross-charging also enlarges high-voltage and coupling needs. OEM specs await third-party operating data.
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矿卡「油改电」添新玩家：卧龙电气与南京 AEAUTO 入场，已改巴基斯坦 / 东南亚 Cat 777Mining-truck 'oil-to-electric' adds players: Wolong Electric and Nanjing AEAUTO enter, converting Cat 777 in Pakistan/SE Asia11
International Mining 报道，中国矿卡「油改电」（diesel-to-electric conversion）市场正热，继 HATL（宁德时代系）、慧工 / 兴东锂电之后，卧龙电气与南京安擎系统技术（AEAUTO）入场。AEAUTO 提供装载机、推土机、机械传动矿卡的整车电动化改装套件与充电系统，称当前可改至 100 吨级矿卡，已在巴基斯坦与东南亚改装卡特彼勒 Cat 777（约 90 吨级刚性矿卡）。International Mining reports China's mining-truck 'oil-to-electric' (diesel-to-electric conversion) market is booming; after HATL (a CATL-linked firm) and Huigong/XDLE, Wolong Electric and Nanjing AE System Technology (AEAUTO) have entered. AEAUTO offers full-vehicle electrification conversion kits and charging systems for loaders, dozers and mechanical-drive mining trucks, says it can convert up to the 100-tonne class, and has already converted Caterpillar Cat 777 units (~90-tonne rigid haulers) in Pakistan and Southeast Asia.
可改至 100 吨级矿卡Up to 100-tonne class已改 Cat 777（巴基斯坦 / 东南亚）Cat 777 done (Pakistan/SE Asia)整车电动化改装套件Full-vehicle conversion kits
对业务For the business：矿卡油改电把电驱桥 / 电机 / 电池集成卖进存量刚性矿卡（Cat 777 这类），是一条绕开新车采购、直接改存量机队的通道；落点在巴基斯坦与东南亚（辖区内），对中国矿用电驱总成与车桥是增量场景，但多为改装件、非整桥新供。Oil-to-electric conversion sells e-axle/motor/battery integration into the installed rigid-hauler base (the Cat 777 class), a path that bypasses new-truck buying and retrofits existing fleets; the footprint is Pakistan and Southeast Asia (in-region), an incremental scene for Chinese mining e-drive and axles — though mostly retrofit parts, not full new axles.
亚洲纯重卡 / 中重卡温度计（仅取有重卡细分的市场）Asia pure-heavy / M&HCV thermometer (only markets with a heavy-truck breakout)
巴基斯坦 卡车 · 7–9 月Pakistan trucks · Jul–Sep+53%
中国 新能源重卡 · 9 月批发China NEV heavy truck · Sep wholesale+40%
印度 M&HCV 货运卡车 · 7–9 月India M&HCV goods · Jul–Sep+38.4%
中国 重卡 · 9 月官方China heavy truck · Sep official−6.5%
只取有纯重卡 / 中重卡细分的市场：中国=中汽协 9 月重卡与第一商用车网新能源重卡批发；印度=SIAM 7–9 月中重卡货运卡车；巴基斯坦=PAMA 7–9 月卡车（小基数）。马来西亚 · 泰国 · 台湾 · 印尼本周为含轻卡 · 皮卡 · 巴士的总口径，未纳入。时段不一（月度 vs 季度）仅作方向对照。Only markets with a pure-heavy/M&HCV breakout: China = CAAM September heavy trucks and CVWorld NEV heavy-truck wholesale; India = SIAM Jul–Sep M&HCV goods carriers; Pakistan = PAMA Jul–Sep trucks (small base). Malaysia, Thailand, Taiwan and Indonesia had only all-in totals (incl. light truck/pickup/bus) this week and are left out. Periods differ (monthly vs quarterly) — direction only.
东亚East Asia
韩国 9 月受中秋工作日拖累（现代内销 −25.7%）；台湾 9 月整体 +15%（含轻口径）Korea September dragged by Chuseok working days (Hyundai domestic −25.7%); Taiwan +15% (all-in caliber)12
韩国 9 月受中秋假期工作日减少影响，现代内销 49,022 辆、同比 −25.7%（现代口径，非行业）；其中中大型客车 + 卡车约 2,016 辆，为可比的重型近似线、小基数且受假期扭曲。台湾 9 月整体车市同比 +15%（含乘用，无商用车细分）。两地本周均无纯卡车 / 重卡拆分，不进温度计。Korea's September was hit by fewer Chuseok working days: Hyundai domestic sales were 49,022, −25.7% YoY (Hyundai-only, not industry), of which mid/large buses and trucks were about 2,016 — the closest heavy proxy, small-base and holiday-distorted. Taiwan's overall September market was +15% YoY (incl. passenger, no CV split). Neither had a pure truck/heavy-truck breakout this week, so both are out of the thermometer.
现代内销 −25.7%（中秋）Hyundai domestic −25.7% (Chuseok)现代中大型客卡 ~2,016Hyundai mid/large bus+truck ~2,016台湾 9 月 +15%（总）Taiwan Sep +15% (total)
对业务For the business：东亚成熟市场本周只有总口径或单一厂商读数，且受假期扭曲，对车轴配套方向判断价值有限；重卡细分待 KAMA / JAMA 月度数据。East Asia's mature markets offered only all-in or single-maker reads this week, holiday-distorted, of limited value for axle direction; the heavy-truck split awaits KAMA/JAMA monthly data.
东南亚Southeast Asia
印尼 9 月批发 79,540 辆、同比 +28%；商用车仅 1–9 月累计 185,228 辆、+42%（含轻卡 / 皮卡 / 巴士）Indonesia September wholesale 79,540, +28% YoY; CV only cumulative Jan–Sep 185,228, +42% (incl. light truck/pickup/bus)13
印尼 9 月整体批发 79,540 辆、同比 +28%（2025 年 9 月约 62,090 辆）。商用车印尼只给 1–9 月累计 185,228 辆、同比 +42%，由中轻型卡车（+52%）带动——口径含轻卡 / 皮卡 / 巴士，非纯重卡，GAIKINDO 未单列重卡(GVW)细分，也无 9 月单月 CV 数。Indonesia's September total wholesale was 79,540, +28% YoY (Sep 2025 ~62,090). On CVs Indonesia gives only Jan–Sep cumulative 185,228, +42% YoY, led by light/medium trucks (+52%) — caliber includes light truck/pickup/bus, not pure heavy; GAIKINDO did not break out heavy trucks (by GVW) and gave no September-only CV figure.
9 月总批发 79,540（+28%）Sep total 79,540 (+28%)1–9 月 CV 185,228（+42%）Jan–Sep CV 185,228 (+42%)含轻卡 / 皮卡 / 巴士incl. light/pickup/bus
对业务For the business：印尼商用车高增长主要在中轻型，纯重卡 / 矿卡需求仍看镍政策（见宏观章）；配套机会偏中轻型底盘与政府项目车，重型增量有限。Indonesia's CV growth is mostly light/medium; pure heavy/mining-truck demand still tracks nickel policy (see Macro), so content opportunity leans to light/medium chassis and government-project vehicles, with limited heavy upside.
马来 9 月 74,259 辆、同比 +18.8%（总）；泰国 9 月 +23.82%（总）；越南 VAMA 9 月 35,094（CV 9,807）Malaysia Sep 74,259, +18.8% (total); Thailand Sep +23.82% (total); Vietnam VAMA Sep 35,094 (CV 9,807)14
马来西亚 9 月（MAA）新车 74,259 辆、同比 +18.8%，为史上最强 9 月，1–9 月 640,875 辆、+18.6%——总市场口径、无商用车拆分。泰国 9 月国内销量同比 +23.82%（FTI / 口径为总市场）。越南 VAMA 9 月 35,094 辆（+14% 同比 / +38% 环比），其中商用车 9,807 辆。坊间流传的「越南 9 月 +38%」是 VAMA 环比口径（非同比、非全口径）；加上现代(3,872)与 VinFast(23,624，均为电动乘用)全口径约 62,590 辆，增量来自 VinFast 电动乘用车、非卡车。Malaysia's September (MAA) was 74,259 units, +18.8% YoY — its strongest-ever September; Jan–Sep 640,875, +18.6% — total market, no CV split. Thailand's September domestic sales were +23.82% YoY (FTI; total market). Vietnam's VAMA September was 35,094 (+14% YoY / +38% MoM), of which commercial vehicles 9,807. The widely-circulated 'Vietnam September +38%' is VAMA's MoM figure (not YoY, not all-makers); adding Hyundai (3,872) and VinFast (23,624, both EV passenger) gives a full-market ~62,590, with the extra coming from VinFast EV cars, not trucks.
马来 9 月 74,259（+18.8%，总）Malaysia 74,259 (+18.8%, total)泰国 9 月 +23.82%（总）Thailand +23.82% (total)越南 VAMA CV 9,807Vietnam VAMA CV 9,807
对业务For the business：东盟三国本周多为总市场读数、无纯重卡拆分，且越南的「+38%」易被误读成同比全口径；对车轴配套最可用的仍是越南 VAMA 商用车线，马来与泰国需等协会卡车细分。These three ASEAN markets gave mostly total reads with no pure-heavy split this week, and Vietnam's '+38%' is easily misread as YoY all-makers; the most usable for axle content is Vietnam's VAMA CV line, while Malaysia and Thailand await association truck breakouts.
南亚South Asia
直接相关Directly relevant
印度 SIAM 二季度(7–9 月)：中重卡货运卡车 102,908 辆、同比 +38.4%，CV 出口 +72.5%India SIAM Q2 (Jul–Sep): M&HCV goods carriers 102,908, +38.4% YoY; CV exports +72.5%15
印度 SIAM 二季度(FY27 Jul–Sep)：中重卡(M&HCV)合计 121,171 辆、同比 +37.0%，其中货运卡车 102,908 辆（去年 74,364）、+38.4%，是最纯的重卡读数；总商用车 309,063 辆、+28.7%；CV 出口 41,000+ 辆、+72.5%；上半财年(4–9 月)CV 574,255 辆、+23.8%。SIAM 归因基建、货运、旧车置换与车队扩张。塔塔二季度 CV 135,114 辆、+42.7%，并自 10/1 起上调 CV 价格至多 1%（9/17 公告，年内第二次）。SIAM 未单列 9 月 M&HCV。（引用须署名 SIAM）India SIAM Q2 (FY27 Jul–Sep): M&HCV totalled 121,171, +37.0% YoY, of which goods carriers 102,908 (vs 74,364 LY), +38.4% — the purest heavy-truck read; total CV 309,063, +28.7%; CV exports 41,000+, +72.5%; H1 FY27 (Apr–Sep) CV 574,255, +23.8%. SIAM credits infrastructure, freight, old-vehicle replacement and fleet expansion. Tata's Q2 CV was 135,114, +42.7%, and it raised CV prices up to 1% from Oct 1 (announced Sep 17, its second hike this year). SIAM did not break out September M&HCV. (Cite as SIAM.)
M&HCV 货运卡车 102,908（+38.4%）M&HCV goods 102,908 (+38.4%)总 CV 309,063（+28.7%）Total CV 309,063 (+28.7%)CV 出口 41,000+（+72.5%）CV exports 41,000+ (+72.5%)塔塔 Q2 CV +42.7%、10/1 涨价 ≤1%Tata Q2 CV +42.7%, +≤1% from Oct 1
对业务For the business：印度仍是本刊最强需求极，季度中重卡货运卡车 +38.4%、出口 +72.5% 同向走强（基建 + 货运 + 旧车置换）；印度中重卡配置权重维持上调，车轴 / 连接件对印供货与本地化值得加码——塔塔涨价说明需求足以转嫁成本。India remains the strongest demand pole: quarterly M&HCV goods carriers +38.4% and CV exports +72.5% both strong (infrastructure + freight + replacement); hold India M&HCV configuration weight up and push axle/coupling supply and localisation to India — Tata's price hike shows demand strong enough to pass on costs.
直接相关Directly relevant
东风柳汽拟在越南建 KD 工厂：乘龙卡车本地组装，目标越南年销超万辆Dongfeng Liuzhou to build a Vietnam KD plant: Chenglong trucks assembled locally, targeting 10,000+ a year in Vietnam16
东风柳汽在第 23 届中国—东盟博览会（南宁，9 月中旬）签署合作，拟在越南建 KD（散件组装）工厂：由越南永发汽车负责本地化生产、海鸥汽车投资负责市场与服务，东风柳汽供产品技术与组装工艺，产品为乘龙卡车。越南是其规划的东盟首个「万辆级」市场，目标经 KD 厂年销超 1 万辆；乘龙 2025 年东盟销 11,057 辆、占越南中卡约 55%、已有 30+ 家卡车 4S 中心（1992 年起出口越南）。具体厂址、产能与投产时间未披露。At the 23rd China–ASEAN Expo (Nanning, mid-September), Dongfeng Liuzhou signed a cooperation to build a KD (knock-down assembly) plant in Vietnam: Vietnam Forever Automobile handles localised production, Seagull Automobile Investment handles market and service, and Dongfeng Liuzhou supplies product technology and assembly process, for Chenglong trucks. Vietnam is the first of its planned ASEAN '10,000-unit-class' markets, targeting 10,000+ a year via the KD plant; Chenglong sold 11,057 in ASEAN in 2025, holds about 55% of Vietnam's medium-truck segment and already has 30+ truck 4S centres (exporting to Vietnam since 1992). Plant site, capacity and start date were not disclosed.
越南 KD 工厂（乘龙）Vietnam KD plant (Chenglong)目标 >1 万辆 / 年Target 10,000+/yr占越南中卡 ~55%~55% Vietnam med-truck seg.
对业务For the business：KD 本地组装把中国中卡的采购从整车出口转向散件 + 本地装配，利于绕开关税、贴近市场；对车轴 / 连接件供应商，意味着随东风柳汽体系进越南本地配套的机会，但 KD 件的本地化率要求也会逐步抬高进入门槛。KD local assembly shifts Chinese medium-truck sourcing from complete-vehicle exports to kits plus local assembly, helping dodge tariffs and get closer to the market; for axle/coupling suppliers it means a chance to localise into Vietnam within Dongfeng Liuzhou's system, though rising KD local-content requirements will gradually raise the entry bar.
结论与监测Wrap-up & watch list
一句话：中汽协官方把中国 9 月重卡定在 98,700 辆（−6.5%），比估计略好、方向没变——中国内需弱、出口与新能源撑量，电动化落到电驱桥是今年车轴业务的核心主线；印度季度中重卡 +38.4% 是最强需求极，印尼镍价连续两期走弱、矿卡需求转谨慎。下周先看 10/19 中国 Q3 GDP 与固投、10/20 LPR、10/20–21 印尼央行、10/31 泰国柴油折让到期。
In one line: CAAM's official September heavy trucks landed at 98,700 (−6.5%), a touch better than the estimate but unchanged in direction — China's home demand is soft, exports and NEV carry volume, and electrification landing on the e-axle is this year's core line for the axle business; India's quarterly M&HCV +38.4% is the strongest demand pole, while Indonesia's nickel fell two periods running and mining-truck demand turns cautious. Next, watch China's Oct 19 Q3 GDP and FAI, the Oct 20 LPR, Indonesia's Oct 20–21 meeting and Thailand's Oct 31 diesel-discount expiry.
| 时间When | 事件Event | 对判断的意义Why it matters |
|---|
| 10/19 | 中国 · Q3 GDP 与 9 月固投 / 工业China · Q3 GDP and September FAI/output | 中国 1–8 月固投 −7.2%、房地产 −19.9%，工程 / 自卸需求看固投走向——数以 NBS 公告为准China Jan–Aug FAI −7.2%, property −19.9%; construction/tipper demand tracks FAI — pending the NBS release |
| 10/20 09:15 | 中国 · 10 月 LPRChina · October LPR | 已连 16 个月持平 3.00% / 3.50%，重卡多融资购买、利率是需求背景Held 16 straight months at 3.00%/3.50%; heavy trucks are financed, so rates set the demand backdrop |
| 10/20–21 | 印尼 · 央行例会Indonesia · Bank Indonesia meeting | 9 月守 5.75%，是否降息关系印尼 CV 融资与矿卡需求背景；叠加镍价连续走弱Held 5.75% in September; a cut would ease Indonesia CV financing and the mining-truck backdrop, against a two-period nickel slide |
| 10/28 | 泰国 · 央行例会Thailand · BoT meeting | BoT 利率叠加柴油折让去留，影响泰国车队 TCOThe BoT rate plus the fate of the diesel discount bear on Thai fleet TCO |
| 10/31 | 泰国 · 炼厂柴油折让到期Thailand · refinery diesel-discount expiry | 油基金赤字约 920 亿铢，折让到期后柴油或跳涨、压泰国车队 TCOOil fund about THB 92bn in deficit; after expiry diesel could jump and squeeze Thai fleet TCO |
| 10 月下旬 | 印度 · FADA 10 月零售India · FADA October retail | 9 月 HCV +46% 后，节后 10 月是否回吐是印度需求的试金石After September HCV +46%, a post-festive October give-back is the test of India's demand |
| 11/29 | 区域 · 美越 301 案最终认定Region · US–Vietnam Section 301 final determination | 越南出口链的关税风险节点，关系东盟出海与进口件成本A tariff-risk node for Vietnam's export chain, bearing on ASEAN exports and imported-part costs |
| 本月内 | 区域 · 美国对中国厢式挂车双反征税令Region · US anti-dumping orders on Chinese van trailers | W41 / W42 跟踪：ITC 终裁已过、征税令本月签发，中国整挂对美基本关门W41/W42 carryover: ITC final determination passed; orders issue this month, effectively shutting complete-trailer exports to the US |