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中国：10 月制造业 PMI 49.3% 重回收缩，建筑业商务活动 48.0%、环比 −2.3 个百分点China: October manufacturing PMI back in contraction at 49.3%, construction activity 48.0%, −2.3pp MoM¹

国家统计局 10/31 发布：中国 10 月制造业 PMI 49.3%，环比 −0.8 个百分点，从 9 月的 50.1% 落回收缩区间；生产 49.8%（环比 −1.9 个百分点）、新订单 49.4%（环比 −1.1 个百分点）同时转弱。非制造业商务活动 49.7%（环比 −0.5 个百分点），其中建筑业 48.0%、环比 −2.3 个百分点。大型企业 50.2% 是唯一还在荣枯线上的规模组，中型 48.4%、小型 47.5%。统计局把回落归因于国庆前需求前置与外部环境。背景：中国 1–9 月固定资产投资 −7.2%、房地产开发投资 −20.6%。China's NBS reported on Oct 31 that the October manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, −0.8pp MoM, falling back from September's 50.1% into contraction; production at 49.8% (−1.9pp MoM) and new orders at 49.4% (−1.1pp MoM) weakened together. Non-manufacturing business activity was 49.7% (−0.5pp MoM), with construction at 48.0%, −2.3pp MoM. Large enterprises at 50.2% were the only size cohort above the threshold, with medium at 48.4% and small at 47.5%. NBS attributed the drop to demand pulled forward ahead of the National Day holiday and the external environment. Background: China's Jan–Sep fixed-asset investment was −7.2% and property development investment −20.6%.

事件What happened中国 10 月制造业 PMI 回落到 49.3%，建筑业商务活动降到 48.0%，均在收缩区间。China's October manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3% and construction business activity to 48.0%, both in contraction.

逻辑Why it matters制造业新订单与生产决定公路货运的货量，建筑业商务活动则是工程车、自卸与搅拌车需求的前一道工序——项目开工节奏先动，车辆采购后动，中间通常隔一到两个季度。Manufacturing new orders and production set road-freight tonnage, while construction activity sits one step ahead of demand for construction, tipper and mixer trucks — project starts move first and vehicle purchases follow, usually one to two quarters later.

对市场For the market中国四季度重卡内销或继续偏弱，工程类比物流类更承压；建筑业环比掉 2.3 个百分点这一格，意味着自卸与搅拌这条线到明年一季度都不容易看到帮衬。中国 10 月重卡批发尚未发布，方向要等 11 月上旬。China's Q4 domestic heavy-truck sales may stay soft, with construction-oriented models under more pressure than logistics ones; the 2.3pp MoM drop in construction implies little support for tippers and mixers through Q1 next year. China's October heavy-truck wholesales are not yet out, so direction waits on early November.

对业务For the business中国工程车与自卸配套的车轴、悬架需求偏弱，配套排产按低一档走；增量仍要去中国新能源重卡与出口两条线上找——这两条线今年一直是撑量的那部分。Axle and suspension demand tied to Chinese construction and tipper trucks stays soft, so plan that supply a notch lower; incremental volume still has to come from China's NEV heavy trucks and exports, the two lines that have carried volume all year.

中国：10/29 柴油上调 335 元 / 吨、0# 每升 +0.28 元，机制测算 +420 元经调控压低China: diesel up RMB 335/tonne on Oct 29 (0# +RMB 0.28/litre), capped down from the mechanism's +RMB 420²

国家发改委 10/29 24 时起上调成品油价：机制测算汽油 +440 元 / 吨、柴油 +420 元 / 吨，实际执行汽油 +345 元 / 吨、柴油 +335 元 / 吨，0# 柴油每升 +0.28 元。上一窗口 10/15 因幅度未达标不作调整，是中国今年第二次搁浅。发改委把涨价归因于中东局势推高原油。下一窗口 11/12 24 时。另：国家统计局 10 月中旬流通领域价格显示，中国 0# 柴油 9,370.7 元 / 吨、旬环比 +2.7%，与本次上调同向。China's NDRC raised refined-product prices from 24:00 on Oct 29: the mechanism called for gasoline +RMB 440/t and diesel +RMB 420/t, while the actual move was gasoline +RMB 345/t and diesel +RMB 335/t, with 0# diesel up RMB 0.28 a litre. The previous Oct 15 window was left unchanged because the move fell below the threshold — China's second such pass this year. NDRC attributed the increase to Middle East tension lifting crude. The next window is 24:00 on Nov 12. Separately, NBS mid-October producer-goods prices put China's 0# diesel at RMB 9,370.7/t, +2.7% on the prior ten-day period, moving the same way.

事件What happened中国 10/29 把柴油出厂价上调 335 元 / 吨，0# 柴油每升涨 0.28 元，机制本应涨 420 元 / 吨。China raised ex-refinery diesel by RMB 335/tonne on Oct 29, lifting 0# diesel RMB 0.28 a litre, against a mechanism-implied RMB 420/tonne.

逻辑Why it matters柴油占中国重卡运营成本三到四成，油价上行直接压车队单公里毛利；同时拉开柴油车与电动、燃气重卡的使用成本差距，改变购车时的动力路线选择。Diesel is 30–40% of a Chinese heavy truck's running cost, so a price rise cuts fleet margin per kilometre directly, while widening the running-cost gap between diesel and electric or gas trucks and shifting powertrain choice at purchase.

对市场For the market中国车队四季度运营成本抬高，运价又难同步跟涨，换车意愿或继续被压住；但电动重卡的经济性账会更好算，中国新能源重卡渗透率有望继续往上。潍柴三季报已提到今年油气价格上行让天然气重卡需求阶段性走弱。Chinese fleet operating costs rise in Q4 while freight rates are unlikely to follow, so replacement appetite may stay suppressed; the economics of electric trucks, however, look better, and China's NEV heavy-truck penetration may keep climbing. Weichai's Q3 report already noted that higher oil and gas prices weakened gas-truck demand this year.

对业务For the business中国柴油重卡这头的配套需求继续受压，电驱桥那头受益——这正是今年中国车轴配套的那条主线。同时提醒：涨价只走了机制的八成，中国政府还在用调控压幅度，后续若放开，幅度会比现在大。Supply tied to Chinese diesel heavy trucks stays under pressure while e-drive axles benefit — which is this year's main line for axle supply in China. Note also that only about 80% of the mechanism's move was passed through; if China lets the cap go later, the step will be larger than this one.

印尼：10/29 敲定 2026 年修订配额（煤约 7 亿吨、镍矿 2.9–3.0 亿湿吨），同时定调 2027 年镍矿配额下调Indonesia: the revised 2026 quotas were settled on Oct 29 (coal about 700 Mt, nickel ore 290–300 million wmt), with the 2027 nickel quota signalled lower³

印尼能矿部矿产与煤炭总司长 Tri Winarno 10/29 向媒体表示，2026 年 RKAB 修订已经完成：煤炭约 7 亿吨、镍矿 2.9–3.0 亿湿吨。对照年初核定的 2026 年原计划（煤炭 6 亿吨以上、镍矿 2.6–2.7 亿湿吨），煤炭约增 1 亿吨、镍矿约增 3,000 万湿吨；但镍矿这个修订值仍比 2025 年的 3.79 亿湿吨低约 21%。同一时点他对 2027 年给的是反方向指引：2027 年镍矿配额将低于 2026 年修订后的 2.9–3.0 亿湿吨，理由是全球镍过剩（援引伦敦金属交易所与上期所合计约 75 万吨），而企业 2027 年申报量已超过 5 亿湿吨、约为 2026 年原计划上限的两倍；印尼 2027 年 RKAB 申报窗口 10/1 至 11/15，仍按一年期执行。价格面，印尼 11 月上半月 HMA 镍基准价 15,478.67 美元 / 吨，较 10 月下半月的 15,847.67 美元降 369 美元、−2.33%，为连续第三期下行；伦敦金属交易所镍 10/30 报 15,220 美元 / 吨、单日 −1.90%。另据 10/26 报道，印尼投资与下游化部长 Rosan Roeslani 在华会见青山控股董事长项光达，谈 Morowali（IMIP）与 Weda Bay（IWIP）的下游深加工，未披露金额与时间表；同期 IMIP 园区几家镍企因价格下跌与成本上升在商量协同减产。配额数字出自主管司长对媒体的口头表述，截至发稿未见能矿部书面发布或部长令文号，按部级表态记录、非已公告定本。Tri Winarno, Director General of Minerals and Coal at Indonesia's ESDM, told media on Oct 29 that the 2026 RKAB revision is complete: coal at about 700 Mt and nickel ore at 290–300 million wmt. Against the original 2026 plans approved early in the year — coal above 600 Mt and nickel ore 260–270 million wmt — coal rises by roughly 100 Mt and nickel ore by about 30 million wmt; even so, the revised nickel figure is still about 21% below 2025's 379 million wmt. At the same time his guidance for 2027 runs the other way: the 2027 nickel ore quota will come in below the revised 2026 level of 290–300 million wmt, citing a global nickel surplus of roughly 750,000 tonnes across LME and SHFE reporting, while company filings for 2027 already exceed 500 million wmt, about double the original 2026 ceiling; Indonesia's 2027 RKAB filing window runs Oct 1 to Nov 15 and stays on a one-year cycle. On price, Indonesia's first-half-November HMA nickel benchmark was US$15,478.67 a tonne, US$369 or 2.33% below the second-half-October figure of US$15,847.67, a third consecutive decline; LME nickel was US$15,220/t on Oct 30, down 1.90% on the day. Separately, on Oct 26 Indonesian Investment and Downstreaming Minister Rosan Roeslani met Tsingshan chairman Xiang Guangda in China on deeper downstream processing at Morowali (IMIP) and Weda Bay (IWIP), with no figures or timetable disclosed, while several nickel producers in the IMIP park were discussing coordinated output cuts on falling prices and rising costs. The quota figures come from the director general's oral remarks to media; no written ESDM release or ministerial decree number had appeared at the time of writing, so they are recorded as ministerial statements rather than a gazetted final text.

事件What happened印尼 10/29 敲定 2026 年修订配额——煤炭约 7 亿吨、镍矿 2.9–3.0 亿湿吨，双双高于年初原计划；但对 2027 年，印尼能矿部明确镍矿配额要往下走。Indonesia settled its revised 2026 quotas on Oct 29 — coal at about 700 Mt and nickel ore at 290–300 million wmt, both above the original plans; yet for 2027, ESDM made clear the nickel ore quota will come down.

逻辑Why it matters配额是采矿许可的产量上限，直接决定矿区到港口、到冶炼厂的矿石与煤炭运量，而这两段在印尼几乎全靠宽体自卸与矿用自卸车跑。配额放大就是吨公里放大，矿卡出勤率、更新节奏与车桥、悬架备件消耗跟着上；配额收缩则反向。要分清的是：这是许可上限，不是实际产量，而且 2026 年只剩两个月，新增配额能转成多少实际运量有限。A quota is the permitted output ceiling, and it sets how much ore and coal move from pit to port and to smelter — legs that in Indonesia run almost entirely on wide-body and mining dump trucks. A larger quota means more tonne-kilometres, lifting truck utilisation, replacement pace and consumption of axle and suspension spares; a smaller one does the reverse. The distinction that matters: this is a permit ceiling rather than actual output, and with only two months left in 2026, how much of the added quota converts into real haulage is limited.

对市场For the market印尼煤运这条线短期转暖：加里曼丹与苏门答腊的煤区运量年底有一波补量空间，煤价高位也支持矿方多拉。镍这条线相反——2026 年虽然名义加了 3,000 万湿吨，但 HMA 连三期下行、伦敦金属交易所镍跌到 15,220 美元 / 吨、IMIP 园区在谈协同减产，加上 2027 年配额确定要降，苏拉威西与北马鲁古两片镍区的矿卡需求明年大概率走弱。Indonesia's coal haulage turns warmer near term: coal districts in Kalimantan and Sumatra have room for a year-end catch-up in volume, and high coal prices give miners reason to move more. Nickel runs the other way — although 2026 nominally gained 30 million wmt, the HMA has fallen for three straight periods, LME nickel is down to US$15,220/t, the IMIP park is discussing coordinated cuts and the 2027 quota is set to drop, so mining-truck demand across the Sulawesi and North Maluku nickel belts is more likely than not to soften next year.

对业务For the business印尼要拆成两套排产：煤区按原节奏甚至略偏紧地备货，年底补量多半走备件与出勤而不是新车；镍区（Morowali、Weda Bay）的矿用车轴与宽体自卸配套按低一档，并把 2027 年的量往下修。下游深加工那条 10/26 的会面没有金额与时间表，不计入需求。Indonesia needs two separate plans: keep the coal belt at its existing pace, if anything stocking a little tighter, since a year-end catch-up will run through spares and utilisation rather than new trucks; and plan mining-axle and wide-body tipper supply for the nickel belt — Morowali and Weda Bay — a notch lower, revising 2027 volumes down. The Oct 26 downstream meeting carried no figures or timetable and is not counted as demand.

泰国：出厂柴油折让 11 月从 4 铢 / 升降到 2 铢，B20 消费税降到 0.43 铢对冲Thailand: the ex-refinery diesel discount drops from 4 baht to 2 baht a litre in November, with B20 excise cut to 0.43 baht as an offset⁴

泰国 9/16 起实施的 4 铢 / 升出厂柴油折让于 10/31 到期，未原样延续：泰国能源政策管理委员会（EPAC）10/21 决定动用 9 月炼油超额利润 30–40 亿铢，把 11/1 至 11/30 的折让定为 2 铢 / 升。泰国内阁 10/27 另把 B20 消费税降到 0.43 铢 / 升、E20 降到 0.36 铢，执行期 10/28 至次年 1/27。泰国油基金管理委员会 10/28 决定自 10/29 起下调 B7 柴油零售价 1 铢至 42.54 铢 / 升，柴油补贴同步下调 0.38 铢至 2.93 铢 / 升，理由是定价公式剔除了新加坡运费与保费假设；油基金当时日补贴支出约 2.53 亿铢。泰国央行 10/28 第四次维持政策利率 1.00% 不变，并把 2026 年 GDP 预测上调到 2.4%。Thailand's 4-baht-per-litre ex-refinery diesel discount, in force since Sep 16, expired on Oct 31 and was not rolled over unchanged: the Energy Policy Administration Committee decided on Oct 21 to use 3–4 billion baht of September refining surplus to set the Nov 1–30 discount at 2 baht a litre. Separately, on Oct 27 the cabinet cut B20 excise to 0.43 baht a litre and E20 to 0.36 baht, running Oct 28 to Jan 27. The Oil Fuel Fund committee decided on Oct 28 to cut the B7 retail diesel price by 1 baht to 42.54 baht a litre from Oct 29, trimming the diesel subsidy by 0.38 baht to 2.93 baht a litre, on a pricing formula that dropped assumed Singapore freight and insurance; the fund was then paying about 253 million baht a day. Thailand's central bank held the policy rate at 1.00% for a fourth meeting on Oct 28 and lifted its 2026 GDP forecast to 2.4%.

事件What happened泰国把出厂柴油折让砍掉一半（4 → 2 铢 / 升），同时用 B20 消费税下调和定价公式调整把零售价先压下来 1 铢。Thailand halved its ex-refinery diesel discount from 4 to 2 baht a litre while using a B20 excise cut and a pricing-formula change to take 1 baht off the pump price first.

逻辑Why it matters泰国车队的柴油价格现在由三样东西撑着：出厂折让、油基金补贴、消费税率。折让减半本会抬价，但消费税下调打在 B20 这一档——B20 正是泰国大车队与货运公司常用的柴油牌号，所以政府把减让的力气集中在了商用车这一侧。Thai fleet diesel prices now rest on three things: the ex-refinery discount, the oil-fund subsidy and the excise rate. Halving the discount would normally lift prices, but the excise cut lands on B20 — the grade Thailand's larger fleets and haulage firms commonly use — so the relief was concentrated on the commercial-vehicle side.

对市场For the market泰国车队四季度的燃料成本短期没有出现上期担心的那种跳涨，TCO 暂时稳住；但支撑这个价格的是财政和炼油企业让利，不是市场价，2 铢折让 11/30 到期后仍要再决定一次。泰国商用车需求本身偏弱，9 月皮卡 10,315 辆、同比 −7.11%，泰国工业联合会在呼吁放松车贷。Thai fleet fuel costs did not jump in Q4 the way last week's note flagged, so TCO is steady for now; but the price is held up by fiscal money and refiner give-backs rather than the market, and the 2-baht discount expires on Nov 30 requiring another decision. Thai commercial demand itself is soft — September pickups were 10,315 units, -7.11% YoY, and the Federation of Thai Industries is calling for easier auto lending.

对业务For the business泰国这边对挂车与连接件配套的影响暂时中性：成本没恶化，但需求没被点着。真正要盯的是 11/30 那次决定——油基金日支出 2.53 亿铢这个数撑不了太久，一旦折让退出且消费税优惠到期（次年 1/27），泰国车队成本会一次性跳上去。For trailer and coupling supply into Thailand the read is neutral for now: costs have not worsened, but demand has not been lit either. The thing to watch is the Nov 30 decision — a fund paying 253 million baht a day cannot run long, and once the discount lapses and the excise relief ends on Jan 27, Thai fleet costs step up in one go.

一汽解放三季报：前三季度营收 511.85 亿元、同比 +16.34%，扣非净利 1.37 亿元、同比 +191.78%FAW Jiefang Q3: Jan–Sep revenue RMB 51.185bn, +16.34% YoY, with ex-items net profit RMB 137m, +191.78% YoY⁵

一汽解放 10/30 发布三季报：中国前三季度营业收入 511.85 亿元、同比 +16.34%，归母净利润 5.03 亿元、同比 +35.08%，扣非净利润 1.37 亿元、同比 +191.78%。期内汇兑损失 1.83 亿元（上年同期 0.27 亿元），剔除汇兑影响后归母净利 6.86 亿元、同比 +71.94%。三季度单季毛利率 8.65%，同比 +1.5 个百分点、环比 +3.0 个百分点。前三季度商用车销量约 21.5 万辆、同比约 +6%，营收增速约为销量增速的三倍，差额来自单车均价、海外业务与场景化方案。公司把毛利率回升归于鹰途 Aero、J6V Pro、J6E L2 领航辅助重卡与 J6P 换电牵引车等高价值车型放量。另据中国商用汽车网，中国 9 月换电重卡销量 6,581 辆（交强险终端口径），其中一汽解放 1,419 辆、月度份额 21.6% 居首。FAW Jiefang reported on Oct 30 that China Jan–Sep revenue was RMB 51.185bn, +16.34% YoY, with net profit attributable of RMB 503m, +35.08% YoY, and ex-items net profit of RMB 137m, +191.78% YoY. FX losses of RMB 183m in the period (RMB 27m a year earlier) mask the underlying move: excluding FX, attributable net profit was RMB 686m, +71.94% YoY. Q3 gross margin was 8.65%, +1.5pp YoY and +3.0pp QoQ. Jan–Sep commercial-vehicle volume was about 215,000 units, roughly +6% YoY, so revenue grew about three times faster than volume, with the gap coming from average selling price, overseas business and scenario-based packages. The company attributes the margin recovery to higher-value models ramping — Yingtu Aero, J6V Pro, the J6E L2 assisted-driving heavy truck and the J6P battery-swap tractor. Separately, China's September battery-swap heavy-truck sales were 6,581 units on the insurance-registration terminal basis, of which FAW Jiefang took 1,419 units for a leading 21.6% monthly share.

潍柴动力三季报：动力电池销量 9.3GWh、同比超 +140%，燃气重卡需求阶段性走弱Weichai Q3: battery sales 9.3GWh, over +140% YoY, while gas heavy-truck demand weakened for now⁶

潍柴动力 10/29 晚发布三季报：中国前三季度营业收入 1,811.7 亿元、同比 +6.2%，归母净利润 106.6 亿元、同比 +20.1%；三季度单季营收 580.1 亿元、归母净利 29.6 亿元，扣非净利 32.2 亿元、同比 +13.9%、环比 +2.8%，为单季历史新高。公司披露前三季度动力电池销量 9.3GWh、同比增长超 140%，营业收入 48.5 亿元。对行业的判断写得很直白：2026 年受地缘因素与油气价格上行影响，中国天然气重卡需求阶段性走弱、渗透率回落；与之相对，中国新能源重卡产业化提速，三季度行业渗透率已接近 50%。另披露高附加值 M 系列大缸径发动机前三季度销量超 1.1 万台、同比 +40% 以上，其中数据中心柴发超 2,700 台、同比近 +200%。Weichai Power reported on the evening of Oct 29 that China Jan–Sep revenue was RMB 181.17bn, +6.2% YoY, with attributable net profit of RMB 10.66bn, +20.1% YoY; Q3 alone had revenue of RMB 58.01bn and attributable net profit of RMB 2.96bn, with ex-items net profit of RMB 3.22bn, +13.9% YoY and +2.8% QoQ, a quarterly record. The company disclosed Jan–Sep battery sales of 9.3GWh, up more than 140% YoY, on revenue of RMB 4.85bn. Its industry read is blunt: in 2026, geopolitics and higher oil and gas prices weakened China's natural-gas heavy-truck demand for a period and pulled its penetration back, while China's NEV heavy trucks industrialised faster, with industry penetration near 50% in Q3. It also disclosed Jan–Sep sales of over 11,000 high-value M-series large-bore engines, up more than 40% YoY, including over 2,700 data-centre gensets, up nearly 200% YoY.

中国《绿色交通发展「十五五」规划》：2030 年前全面淘汰国三及以下，加快国四营运货车报废更新China's Green Transport 15th Five-Year Plan: all China III and below phased out before 2030, with China IV commercial trucks accelerated into scrappage renewal⁷

中国交通运输部、国家铁路局、中国民用航空局、国家邮政局四部门 10/10 联合印发《绿色交通发展「十五五」规划》，新华社 10/28 发专稿解读。规划提出到 2030 年推动中国交通运输领域总体实现碳达峰，框架为「一达峰、二下降、三提升」；交通运输碳排放约占中国全国总量的 10%。与车辆直接相关的两条：2030 年前全面淘汰国三及以下排放标准车辆、加快国四营运货车报废更新；建设零碳货运通道约 3 万公里（公路，「5 射 4 纵 5 横」）与零碳水运通道约 5,000 公里。规划同时提出加快中国新能源重卡规模化应用、由短倒场景向干线延伸。注：常被一并引用的「2030 年新能源重卡渗透率 40%、保有量 160 万辆」出自中国 11 部门 6/12 印发的《推动新能源重卡规模化应用实施方案》，不是本规划。China's Ministry of Transport, National Railway Administration, Civil Aviation Administration and State Post Bureau jointly issued the Green Transport Development 15th Five-Year Plan on Oct 10, with Xinhua running an explanatory feature on Oct 28. The plan sets China's transport sector to reach overall carbon peaking by 2030 under a 'one peak, two declines, three improvements' frame; transport accounts for about 10% of China's total emissions. Two vehicle-specific lines matter: phasing out all China III and below emission-standard vehicles before 2030 and accelerating scrappage renewal of China IV commercial trucks; and building about 30,000 km of zero-carbon freight corridors on the road network plus about 5,000 km on water. The plan also calls for scaling China's NEV heavy trucks and extending them from short-haul shuttling to trunk routes. Note: the frequently co-cited '40% NEV heavy-truck penetration and a 1.6 million parc by 2030' comes from the separate Implementation Plan for Scaled Application of NEV Heavy Trucks issued by 11 Chinese ministries on Jun 12, not from this plan.

广汽领程与小马智行 T9 ROBOTRUCK 首批量产车下线：L4 重卡从展车走到产线GAC Lingcheng and Pony.ai roll out the first mass-produced T9 ROBOTRUCK: an L4 heavy truck moves from show stand to production line⁸

广汽领程与小马智行联合研发的 T9 ROBOTRUCK L4 级自动驾驶重卡，10/29 在广汽领程从化工厂下线首批量产车型。该车 2026 年 4/16 签署合作协议，9/14 在德国汉诺威国际交通运输博览会完成全球首发，此次为首批量产下线。合作范围覆盖 L4 卡车整车平台、线控底盘与自动驾驶系统集成。广汽领程源自广汽日野的商用车研发制造体系。本条未披露订单量、交付时间表与售价。The T9 ROBOTRUCK, an L4 autonomous heavy truck jointly developed by GAC Lingcheng and Pony.ai, rolled its first mass-production units off the line at GAC Lingcheng's Conghua plant on Oct 29. The partnership was signed on Apr 16, 2026 and the truck made its world debut at the IAA Transportation show in Hanover on Sep 14; this is the first production batch. The scope covers the L4 truck platform, the by-wire chassis and autonomous-system integration. GAC Lingcheng grew out of the commercial-vehicle engineering and manufacturing base of GAC Hino. No order volume, delivery schedule or price was disclosed.

美国对华厢式挂车双反令 10/28 生效：范围点名第五轮座连接盘、牵引销、支腿与车桥总成US AD/CVD orders on Chinese van-type trailers applied Oct 28: scope names fifth-wheel coupler assemblies, kingpins, landing gear and axle assemblies⁹

美国商务部对中国产厢式挂车及其分总成的反倾销与反补贴命令于 10/28 在联邦公报公告并适用（91 FR 67815）。反倾销：中国全国实体加权平均倾销幅度 130.86%、现金保证金率 129.73%（经出口补贴抵扣后），按可得不利事实认定，无单独企业税率；反补贴：所有被列企业与「其他所有」均为 134.75%，合计约 264%。范围覆盖总重额定 26,000 磅以上的厢式挂车及其分总成，不论是否成品、是否组装、不论桥数，且明确列入：用于连接牵引车第五轮的连接盘总成（含或不含已安装的牵引销）、走行部分总成或车桥总成（可含悬架、轮端件、间隙调整臂、成套车桥、制动气室、锁销、车轮与轮胎）、支腿总成（两支支腿、横梁、支撑、支架、横轴与摇把）、以及副车架、前围 / 侧板 / 顶板、后门框与防撞梁。同一提单下的轮毂与制动鼓总成、制动总成、裸车桥、悬架及悬架件、支腿腿柱等亦被覆盖。命令写明在原产国或第三国进行修整、切割、打磨、冲孔、钻孔、涂装、组装等加工均不改变范围归属。被点名企业含中集宝伟工业与青岛中集冷藏挂车（按组合列示）、济南陕汽卡车、陕西汽车控股集团等 20 余家。排除项为已被中国产底盘及其分总成双反令覆盖的部分。申诉方为美国挂车制造商联盟（成员 Great Dane、Stoughton、Wabash）。ITC 终裁 9/25，命令至少执行五年。The US Commerce Department's antidumping and countervailing duty orders on Chinese van-type trailers and subassemblies were published in the Federal Register and applied on Oct 28 (91 FR 67815). On antidumping, the China-wide entity carries a 130.86% weighted-average dumping margin and a 129.73% cash-deposit rate after the export-subsidy offset, determined on adverse facts available with no separate company rates; on countervailing, every listed company and All Others carries 134.75%, roughly 264% combined. The scope covers van-type trailers rated above 26,000 lb GVWR and their subassemblies, whether finished or unfinished, assembled or unassembled, regardless of the number of axles, and expressly includes: coupler assemblies for connection to a truck tractor's fifth wheel, with or without kingpin installed; running-gear or axle assemblies, which may include suspensions, wheel-end components, slack adjusters, dressed axles, brake chambers, locking pins, wheels and tyres; landing-gear subassemblies of two legs, a cross channel, braces, bracketing, a cross shaft and a crank handle; plus subframes, nose, side-wall and roof panels, rear door frames and rear impact guards. Hub and drum assemblies, brake assemblies, bare axles, suspensions and suspension components and landing-gear legs entered on the same bill of lading are also covered. The orders state that trimming, cutting, grinding, punching, drilling, painting, assembly and other processing — in the country of manufacture or in a third country — does not remove product from scope. Named companies include CIMC Baowell Industries and Qingdao CIMC Reefer Trailer (listed as a combination), Jinan Shacman Truck and Shannxi Automobile Holding Group, among more than twenty. Excluded are subassemblies already covered by the AD/CVD orders on Chinese chassis and subassemblies. The petitioner was the American Trailer Manufacturers Coalition, whose members are Great Dane, Stoughton and Wabash. The ITC's final determination was Sep 25 and the orders run at least five years.

中国挂车龙头中集车辆三季报：前三季度营收 161.61 亿元、同比 +7.65%，归母净利 4.86 亿元、同比 −21.82%China's largest trailer maker CIMC Vehicles Q3: Jan–Sep revenue RMB 16.161bn, +7.65% YoY, with net profit RMB 486m, −21.82% YoY¹⁰

中国挂车龙头中集车辆（301039.SZ）10/28 披露 2026 年三季报：三季度单季营业收入 54.24 亿元、同比 +3.13%，归母净利润 1.52 亿元、同比 −30.60%，扣非净利 1.50 亿元、同比 −29.45%，基本每股收益 0.08 元、同比 −33.33%。前三季度营业收入 161.61 亿元、同比 +7.65%，归母净利润 4.86 亿元、同比 −21.82%，扣非净利 4.84 亿元、同比 −18.95%，经营活动现金流净额 10.52 亿元、同比 +8.17%。母公司中集集团 10/30 的三季度公告披露：中集车辆前三季度全球销售各类车辆 11.6 万辆、同比 +14.62%，全球半挂车销量同比 +14.80%（绝对基数未披露），「全球南方」收入同比增长超过 25%（绝对基数未披露）。两份公告均未就美国双反令置评。中集车辆是中国挂车与半挂车出海规模最大的企业，其「全球南方」铺量方向与本刊亚洲辖区高度重叠。CIMC Vehicles (301039.SZ) filed its Q3 2026 report on Oct 28: Q3 revenue was RMB 5.424bn, +3.13% YoY, with attributable net profit of RMB 152m, −30.60% YoY, ex-items net profit of RMB 150m, −29.45% YoY, and basic EPS of RMB 0.08, −33.33% YoY. Jan–Sep revenue was RMB 16.161bn, +7.65% YoY, with attributable net profit of RMB 486m, −21.82% YoY, ex-items net profit of RMB 484m, −18.95% YoY, and operating cash flow of RMB 1.052bn, +8.17% YoY. Parent CIMC Group's Oct 30 release disclosed that CIMC Vehicles sold about 116,000 vehicles globally in Jan–Sep, +14.62% YoY, with global semi-trailer sales +14.80% YoY (absolute base undisclosed) and 'Global South' revenue up more than 25% YoY (absolute base undisclosed). Neither filing commented on the US orders. CIMC Vehicles is China's largest trailer and semi-trailer exporter, and the 'Global South' direction of its volume growth overlaps heavily with this brief's Asian territory.

BPW 把挂车实际使用强度做进轮毂盖与软件：ECO Meter 适配 ECO Plus 2 车桥，新增路况监测BPW builds actual trailer duty into the hub cap and the software: ECO Meter fitted to the ECO Plus 2 axle generation, with Road Condition Monitoring added¹¹

BPW 10/28 发布：ECO Meter 把里程计数器集成进挂车轮毂盖，使挂车里程独立于牵引车记录，更换牵引车后仍保留该挂车的真实里程，用于确定保养间隔、轮胎检查与轮胎里程监控，适配常见轮胎规格、适用至 12 吨。该计数器已针对 BPW 的 ECO Plus 2 车桥系列优化：采用卡扣式轮毂盖，触点移入壳体内部以防尘。BPW 同时推出 Road Condition Monitoring，为 iC Plus 智能走行部的纯软件功能，通过分析空气悬架压力波动把每公里按载荷归入轻 / 中 / 重三档并按挂车重量加权，在 Cargofleet3 平台上以红绿灯方式呈现，无需加装传感器、线束或硬件；对现有 Cargofleet3 用户推送，新车与加装首年免费。BPW 技术应用顾问 Jannis Schoger 的说法是，单看里程说明不了挂车经历了什么。装机量只以「全球数百万根 BPW 挂车桥」表述，未给绝对数。BPW announced on Oct 28 that its ECO Meter integrates a mileage counter into the trailer hub cap so that trailer mileage is recorded independently of the tractor unit, preserving that trailer's actual mileage across different prime movers for setting maintenance intervals, tyre checks and tyre-mileage monitoring; it is available for common tyre sizes in applications up to 12 tonnes. The counter has been optimised for BPW's ECO Plus 2 axle generation, with a bayonet-lock hub cap and contacts relocated inside the housing for dirt protection. BPW also introduced Road Condition Monitoring, a software-only function on its iC Plus intelligent running gear that analyses air-suspension pressure fluctuations to assign each kilometre to a light, moderate or heavy load class weighted by trailer weight, displayed as traffic-light symbols in the Cargofleet3 portal with no added sensors, cabling or hardware; it is pushed to existing Cargofleet3 users and is free in the first year for new vehicles and retrofits. BPW technical applications consultant Jannis Schoger's framing is that mileage alone says little about what a trailer has actually been through. The installed base is described only as millions of BPW trailer axles globally, with no absolute figure.

塔塔 10/30 完成收购依维柯：89.42% 股权、约 34.3 亿欧元，印度 OEM 第一次控股欧洲重卡与动力总成基盘Tata completed its Iveco takeover on Oct 30: an 89.42% stake for about €3.43bn, the first time an Indian OEM controls a European heavy-truck and powertrain base¹²

塔塔汽车 10/30 完成对依维柯集团的收购交割，以每股 14.40 欧元现金要约取得 89.42% 股权、合计 238,157,212 股，对价约 34.3 亿欧元。塔塔集团董事长 N. Chandrasekaran 出任依维柯董事长，Olof Persson 留任首席执行官。依维柯的国防业务不在本次交易内（另行出售予莱昂纳多）。依维柯与塔塔的整车业务同时覆盖亚洲与中东，与中国 OEM 出海的目标市场重叠，故本条按辖区内竞争格局收录，而非欧洲市场动态。Tata Motors completed the settlement of its takeover of Iveco Group on Oct 30, acquiring an 89.42% stake — 238,157,212 shares — through a €14.40-per-share cash offer worth about €3.43bn. Tata Sons chairman N. Chandrasekaran becomes Iveco's chairman and Olof Persson stays on as chief executive. Iveco's defence business is excluded from the transaction and is being sold separately to Leonardo. Iveco and Tata both sell into Asia and the Middle East, overlapping the markets Chinese OEMs are expanding into, so this is carried as a change in the competitive landscape inside the territory rather than as European market news.

克诺尔三季报：商用车系统订单 10.18 亿欧元、同比 +30.1%，但公司明确归因北美与欧洲Knorr-Bremse Q3: commercial-vehicle systems order intake €1,018m, +30.1% YoY — but the company attributes it to North America and Europe¹³

克诺尔 10/28 发布三季报：集团三季度营收 20.51 亿欧元、同比 +9.0%，订单 20.53 亿欧元、同比 +4.9%，经营性 EBIT 2.99 亿欧元、同比 +19.1%，利润率 14.6%、同比 +1.3 个百分点。商用车系统分部三季度订单 10.18 亿欧元、同比 +30.1%，营收 9.38 亿欧元、同比 +12.5%，经营性 EBIT 1.16 亿欧元、同比 +31.9%，9 月末在手订单 20.28 亿欧元、同比 +18.6%。公司把驱动因素明确表述为「北美与欧洲市场复苏」，未归因亚洲。另 10/27 克诺尔在苏州举办中国供应商峰会，约 160 位供应商高管出席，提出扩大中国供应商基盘并提高年度采购额；公司披露在华 15 个基地、2025 年在华收入超 10 亿欧元、年采购额约 5 亿欧元，重点提及新能源卡车与轨道交通。Knorr-Bremse reported on Oct 28 that group Q3 revenue was €2,051m, +9.0% YoY, order intake €2,053m, +4.9% YoY, operating EBIT €299m, +19.1% YoY, and margin 14.6%, +1.3pp YoY. Its Commercial Vehicle Systems division had Q3 order intake of €1,018m, +30.1% YoY, revenue of €938m, +12.5% YoY, operating EBIT of €116m, +31.9% YoY, and an order book at end-September of €2,028m, +18.6% YoY. The company explicitly attributes the driver to 'market recovery in North America and Europe', not Asia. Separately, on Oct 27 Knorr-Bremse held a China supplier summit in Suzhou with about 160 senior supplier representatives, setting out plans to broaden its Chinese supplier base and raise annual procurement; it disclosed 15 sites in China, over €1bn of China revenue in 2025 and about €500m of annual procurement, with emphasis on NEV trucks and rail.

康明斯在重庆发布 29 升 S29 矿用发动机：对应 90–120 吨矿卡，2027 年底供货Cummins launched the 29-litre S29 mining engine in Chongqing: aimed at 90–120 ton haul trucks, available late 2027¹⁴

康明斯 10/28 在重庆康明斯发动机工厂发布 S29 矿用发动机，为全新设计的 29 升平台，对应 90–120 吨级矿用自卸车与 150–220 吨级挖掘机，并可延伸至露天采矿机、推土机、装载机与排水泵等设备。最大功率 1,300 马力 @2,100 rpm，公司称以紧凑安装尺寸实现更大排量机型的功率水平；按当前开发目标，最优点燃油消耗率 180 克 /（千瓦·时）。该机具备燃料兼容能力，计划于 2027 年底在要求中国第三阶段（等同美国 EPA Tier 2）及非认证排放配置的地区全球供货。此前已在 2026 年 5 月的康明斯分析师日预告。Cummins launched the S29 mining engine at its Chongqing Cummins engine plant on Oct 28. The clean-sheet 29-litre platform is designed for 90–120 ton mining haul trucks and 150–220 ton excavators, with wider applicability across surface miners, bulldozers, wheel loaders and dewatering pumps. Output reaches 1,300 hp at 2,100 rpm, which the company says delivers the power of higher-displacement engines within a compact installation package; on current development targets, best-point fuel consumption is 180 g/kWh. The engine is fuel-agnostic and is planned for global availability in late 2027 in regions requiring China Stage III (EPA Tier 2 equivalent) and non-certified emissions configurations. It was previewed at Cummins' Analyst Day in May 2026.

蒙古 Oyu Tolgoi 地下矿 10/29 发生震动事件与局部冒顶，井下作业停后陆续恢复Mongolia: a seismic event and localised rockfall at Oyu Tolgoi's underground mine on Oct 29, with operations halted then progressively restarted¹⁵

力拓 10/30 声明：蒙古 Oyu Tolgoi 地下矿 10/29 发生震动事件，造成一处局部冒顶，位于生产区域旁的临时存储区内，崩落区及其运行设施未受结构性影响；井下作业随即停止，在完成安全审查后陆续恢复。力拓口径为两名员工受非致命伤、仍在治疗中。蒙古方面，蒙古国家通讯社 Montsame 10/31 报道事故发生在 +1300 生产水平、涉及 15 名员工，工业与矿产资源部、矿产资源与石油局及矿产资源专业委员会组成工作组现场检查。两处口径不一致，受影响人数以力拓自身声明为准，蒙方表述作并列记录。力拓声明未提及产量影响或指引调整。另有通讯社报道中蒙甘其毛都 / 嘎舒苏海图口岸车辆通行延误影响精矿外运，该细节不在力拓声明内。Rio Tinto stated on Oct 30 that a seismic event at Mongolia's Oyu Tolgoi underground mine on Oct 29 caused a localised rockfall confined to a temporary storage zone adjacent to the production area, with no structural impact to the cave or its operating infrastructure; underground operations were halted and then progressively restarted after safety reviews were completed. Rio Tinto's own figure is two employees with non-life-threatening injuries still receiving treatment. On the Mongolian side, state news agency Montsame reported on Oct 31 that the accident occurred at the +1300 production level and affected 15 employees, with a working group from the Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources, the Mineral Resources and Petroleum Authority and the Mineral Resources Professional Council inspecting on site. The two accounts differ; the number affected follows Rio Tinto's own statement, with the Mongolian wording recorded alongside. Rio Tinto's statement makes no mention of production impact or guidance change. Wire reporting also described vehicle delays at the Gashuunsukhait/Ganqimaodu China–Mongolia crossing affecting concentrate haulage — a detail not contained in Rio Tinto's statement.

中国煤价见顶回落、蒙古对华煤炭出口 1–9 月 8,617 万吨：煤运走廊这条线仍在，但动能转弱China's coal price rolled over while Mongolia's Jan–Sep coal exports to China hit 86.17 Mt: the coal corridor holds, with momentum fading¹⁶

中国动力煤价格在本周见顶回落：环渤海 5500 大卡现货参考价 10/21 报 1,034 元 / 吨、10/29 回到 1,018 元 / 吨，周内 −16 元（CCTD 口径）；秦皇岛山西优混 5500 大卡 10/30 平仓价 1,012 元 / 吨（同花顺转引，待国家统计局 10 月下旬旬报核对）。参照国家统计局 10 月中旬流通领域价格，中国山西优混 5500 大卡 1,019.0 元 / 吨、旬环比 +3.2%，涨势在月末转向。价格仍处高位——前期口径为 10/10 秦皇岛 1,003 元 / 吨、同比 +42.27%。蒙古方面，蒙古国海关总局数据显示 1–9 月煤炭出口 8,617.18 万吨、同比 +37.62%，全部销往中国；行业媒体称 9 月单月同比与环比首次双双回落，具体吨数未获可靠来源，本期不列数。China's thermal coal price rolled over this week: the Bohai-rim 5,500kcal spot reference was RMB 1,034/t on Oct 21 and RMB 1,018/t on Oct 29, down RMB 16 over the week on the CCTD basis; Qinhuangdao Shanxi blend 5,500kcal was RMB 1,012/t on Oct 30 (via 10jqka, pending the NBS late-October ten-day report). For reference, NBS mid-October producer-goods prices put China's Shanxi blend 5,500kcal at RMB 1,019.0/t, +3.2% on the prior ten-day period, so the rise turned at month-end. Prices remain high — the earlier reading was RMB 1,003/t at Qinhuangdao on Oct 10, +42.27% YoY. In Mongolia, the General Customs Administration reported Jan–Sep coal exports of 86.1718 Mt, +37.62% YoY, all to China; trade media say September fell both YoY and MoM for the first time this year, but no reliable tonnage was obtained and none is printed here.

日本 9 月大中型货车 7,223 辆、同比 −5.4%；台湾 9 月本地产 3.5 吨以上商用车 532 辆、同比 +23.1%Japan's September large/medium cargo vehicles were 7,223, −5.4% YoY; Taiwan's locally built above-3.5t CV was 532, +23.1% YoY¹⁷

日本 JADA 口径 9 月大中型货车登记 7,223 辆、同比 −5.4%（上年同期 7,634 辆）；分品牌：五十铃 3,020 辆、同比 −13.8%，UD 1,188 辆、+3.8%，日野 1,879 辆、+2.0%，三菱扶桑 1,136 辆、−0.8%。1–9 月累计 56,782 辆、同比 +0.6%。日本 10 月数据约 11/5–11/6 发布。台湾 TTVMA 口径 9 月 3.5 吨以上商用车本地销售 532 辆、同比 +23.1%（上年同期 432 辆），1–9 月累计 4,821 辆、同比 +19.4%——该口径仅含本地生产车辆、不含进口，而台湾重卡以进口为主，故低估重型段。韩国现代 10 月商用车销量截至发稿未发布，9 月中大型客车与卡车 2,016 辆。蒙古见矿用章。On JADA's basis, Japan's September large and medium cargo-vehicle registrations were 7,223 units, −5.4% YoY (7,634 a year earlier); by brand, Isuzu 3,020, −13.8% YoY, UD 1,188, +3.8%, Hino 1,879, +2.0%, and Mitsubishi Fuso 1,136, −0.8%. Jan–Sep was 56,782 units, +0.6% YoY. Japan's October figures are due around Nov 5–6. On TTVMA's basis, Taiwan's September domestic sales of above-3.5t commercial vehicles were 532 units, +23.1% YoY (432 a year earlier), with Jan–Sep at 4,821, +19.4% — this caliber covers locally built vehicles only and excludes imports, and since Taiwan's heavy trucks are mostly imported it understates the heavy segment. Hyundai's October Korean commercial-vehicle sales were unpublished at the time of writing; its September medium and large buses and trucks totalled 2,016 units. For Mongolia, see the Mining chapter.

印尼 1–9 月批发 679,020 辆、同比 +21%（含乘用车）；泰国 9 月皮卡 10,315 辆、同比 −7.11%Indonesia Jan–Sep wholesales 679,020, +21% YoY (passenger-inclusive); Thailand's September pickups 10,315, −7.11% YoY¹⁸

印尼 GAIKINDO 口径 1–9 月批发（厂到经销商）679,020 辆、同比 +21%（上年同期 561,405 辆），零售（经销商到消费者）676,223 辆、同比 +15.4%（上年同期 585,926 辆）；品牌前五为丰田 197,809 辆（份额 29.1%）、大发 112,442 辆（16.6%）、铃木 53,224 辆（7.8%）、三菱 48,414 辆（7.1%）、比亚迪 43,727 辆（6.4%）。该口径为全车型含乘用车，GAIKINDO 本期未拆商用车细分，更未拆重卡，不可用于重卡对标。泰国方面，泰国工业联合会口径 9 月皮卡销量 10,315 辆、同比 −7.11%，其中一吨级 5,003 辆、同比 −11.50%；9 月总市场 55,255 辆、同比 +14.28%。泰国工业联合会把皮卡下滑归于车贷审批收紧、经济增长缓慢与家庭负债高，正呼吁政府推动金融机构放松皮卡贷款条件。皮卡属轻型商用车，仅作需求面参考，不进重卡对标。On GAIKINDO's basis, Indonesia's Jan–Sep wholesales from factory to dealer were 679,020 units, +21% YoY (561,405 a year earlier), with retail from dealer to consumer at 676,223, +15.4% YoY (585,926 a year earlier); the top five brands were Toyota 197,809 (29.1% share), Daihatsu 112,442 (16.6%), Suzuki 53,224 (7.8%), Mitsubishi 48,414 (7.1%) and BYD 43,727 (6.4%). This caliber covers all vehicle types including passenger cars; GAIKINDO published no commercial-vehicle split this time and no heavy-truck split, so it cannot be used for heavy-truck comparison. In Thailand, on the Federation of Thai Industries' basis, September pickup sales were 10,315 units, −7.11% YoY, of which the one-tonne class was 5,003, −11.50% YoY; the total September market was 55,255, +14.28% YoY. The FTI attributes the pickup decline to tighter auto-loan approval, slow growth and high household debt, and is urging the government to push financial institutions to relax pickup lending terms. Pickups are light commercial vehicles and are used here only as a demand reference, not for heavy-truck comparison.

印度 10 月：塔塔纯重卡 12,030 辆、同比 +12%（9 月为 +43.6%），VECV 18.5 吨以上重卡 +45%India October: Tata's heavy trucks 12,030, +12% YoY (versus +43.6% in September), while VECV's above-18.5t heavy trucks rose 45%¹⁹

印度各厂 11/1 公布 10 月批发。塔塔汽车：纯重卡（HCV 卡车）印度国内 12,030 辆、同比 +12%（上年同期 10,737 辆），较 9 月的 14,171 辆环比 −15.1%；印度国内中重型卡车（M&HCV）19,263 辆、同比 +16%（上年同期 16,624 辆）；中轻型卡车（ILMCV）7,213 辆、同比 +17%；小型商用车与皮卡 16,715 辆、同比 +11%；客车 3,826 辆、同比 +20%。印度国内商用车合计 39,784 辆、同比 +13%，较 9 月的 43,487 辆环比 −8.5%；国际业务 7,868 辆、上年同期 2,422 辆（+225%，系一笔印尼大单驱动）；国内外合计 47,652 辆、同比 +27%，此口径含轻型与客车，不是重卡口径。VECV（沃尔沃与艾彻合资）：印度国内 18.5 吨以上重卡 2,719 辆、同比 +45%，出口 196 辆、同比 +151%；18.5 吨以下中轻卡印度国内 6,053 辆、同比 +43%；总发货 10,861 辆、同比 +34.9%（含中轻型与客车）。行业层面，印度汽车制造商协会（SIAM）口径 2027 财年上半年（4–9 月）中重型货运卡车 181,279 辆、同比 +30%（上年同期 139,882 辆），其中塔塔 89,057 辆（份额 49%、+29%）、阿轴·雷兰 55,669 辆（33%、+33%）、VECV 30,252 辆（17%、+24%）。阿轴·雷兰 10 月数据截至发稿未发布（9 月印度国内中重型卡车 12,724 辆、同比 +44%）。印度零售端 FADA 10 月数据约 11/5–11/8 发布。印度央行回购利率维持 10/7 加息后的 5.50%，本周无动作；需要留意的是印度车队融资主要走非银行金融机构，实际新车商用车贷款利率约 10% 起、二手 13–18%，远在政策利率之上。India's OEMs published October wholesales on Nov 1. Tata Motors: domestic HCV trucks 12,030 units, +12% YoY (10,737 a year earlier) and −15.1% from September's 14,171; domestic M&HCV trucks 19,263, +16% YoY (16,624 a year earlier); ILMCV trucks 7,213, +17% YoY; small commercial vehicles and pickups 16,715, +11% YoY; passenger carriers 3,826, +20% YoY. Domestic commercial vehicles totalled 39,784, +13% YoY and −8.5% MoM from September's 43,487; international business was 7,868 units against 2,422 a year earlier (+225%, driven by one large Indonesian order); the combined domestic and international figure of 47,652, +27% YoY, includes light vehicles and buses and is not a heavy-truck caliber. VECV, the Volvo–Eicher venture: domestic above-18.5t heavy trucks 2,719 units, +45% YoY, with exports of 196, +151% YoY; below-18.5t light and medium trucks 6,053 domestically, +43% YoY; total dispatches 10,861, +34.9% YoY including light-medium and buses. At industry level, on SIAM's basis India's H1 FY27 (Apr–Sep) M&HCV goods carriers were 181,279 units, +30% YoY (139,882 a year earlier), of which Tata 89,057 (49% share, +29%), Ashok Leyland 55,669 (33%, +33%) and VECV 30,252 (17%, +24%). Ashok Leyland's October figures were unpublished at the time of writing (September domestic M&HCV trucks were 12,724, +44% YoY). India's FADA retail data for October is due around Nov 5–8. The RBI repo rate stays at 5.50% after the Oct 7 hike with no action this week; note that Indian fleet financing runs mainly through non-bank finance companies, where actual new commercial-vehicle loan rates start around 10% and used-vehicle rates run 13–18%, well above the policy rate.

印度车桥厂二季报给出独立旁证：Kross 挂车桥收入约翻倍，GNA Axles 收入 +49.8%India's axle makers give an independent cross-check: Kross's trailer-axle revenue roughly doubled and GNA Axles' revenue rose 49.8%²⁰

印度两家纯车桥上市公司 10 月中下旬披露 2027 财年第二季度（7–9 月）业绩。Kross Ltd（挂车桥与悬架）：季度收入 23.51 亿卢比、同比 +79.6%，EBITDA 3.06 亿卢比、同比 +107%，利润率 13.0%（上年同期 11.3%），净利 1.97 亿卢比、同比 +143.5%；公司在业绩说明会披露挂车桥分部季度收入约 11.5 亿卢比、上年同期约 5.8–6.0 亿卢比，约为去年同期两倍，占收入 49%。GNA Axles（车桥半轴）：季度收入 52.115 亿卢比、同比 +49.8%（上年同期 34.794 亿卢比），净利 4.407 亿卢比、同比 +41.3%；上半财年收入 99.159 亿卢比、净利 8.234 亿卢比。另：Automotive Axles（美驰与卡尔亚尼合资）二季度业绩截至发稿未披露，一季度收入 51.7 亿卢比、同比 +5.7%。India's two listed pure-axle companies reported Q2 FY27 (Jul–Sep) results in the second half of October. Kross Ltd, in trailer axles and suspensions, posted quarterly revenue of INR 2.351bn, +79.6% YoY, EBITDA of INR 306m, +107% YoY, at a 13.0% margin against 11.3% a year earlier, and net profit of INR 197m, +143.5% YoY; on its earnings call it disclosed trailer-axle segment revenue of about INR 1.15bn for the quarter against roughly INR 580–600m a year earlier, about double, and 49% of revenue. GNA Axles, in axle shafts, posted quarterly revenue of INR 5.2115bn, +49.8% YoY (INR 3.4794bn a year earlier) and net profit of INR 440.7m, +41.3% YoY, with H1 revenue of INR 9.9159bn and net profit of INR 823.4m. Separately, Automotive Axles, the Meritor–Kalyani venture, had not reported Q2 at the time of writing; its Q1 revenue was INR 5.17bn, +5.7% YoY.

巴基斯坦：央行 10/26 加息 50 个基点至 12.00%，9 月卡车销量 860 辆、同比 +17.8%Pakistan: the central bank raised 50bp to 12.00% on Oct 26, while September truck sales were 860 units, +17.8% YoY²¹

巴基斯坦国家银行 10/26 决定加息 50 个基点至 12.00%、10/27 生效，货币政策委员会 10 票中 9 票赞成；9 月 CPI 同比 10.3%。巴基斯坦汽车制造商协会（PAMA）口径 9 月卡车销量 860 辆、同比 +17.8%（上年同期 730 辆）、环比 +7.2%（8 月 802 辆），产量 957 辆、同比 +18.7%；2027 财年第一季度（7–9 月）卡车销量 2,516 辆、同比 +53.1%（上年同期 1,643 辆），产量 2,788 辆、同比 +59.2%。客车 9 月 73 辆、同比 −22.3%。巴基斯坦 10 月数据约 11/10–11/12 发布。基数小，百分比波动大，宜看绝对量。The State Bank of Pakistan decided on Oct 26 to raise its policy rate 50bp to 12.00%, effective Oct 27, with nine of ten Monetary Policy Committee members in favour; September CPI was 10.3% YoY. On PAMA's basis, September truck sales were 860 units, +17.8% YoY (730 a year earlier) and +7.2% MoM from August's 802, with production of 957, +18.7% YoY; Q1 FY27 (Jul–Sep) truck sales were 2,516 units, +53.1% YoY (1,643 a year earlier), with production of 2,788, +59.2% YoY. September bus sales were 73 units, −22.3% YoY. Pakistan's October data is due around Nov 10–12. The base is small and percentages swing widely, so read the absolute volumes.

乌兹别克斯坦 1–9 月卡车产量 4,447 辆、同比 +23.0%；进口半挂车零关税与零报废费延至 2027 年底Uzbekistan's Jan–Sep truck output was 4,447 units, +23.0% YoY, with zero duty and zero recycling fee on imported semi-trailers running to end-2027²²

乌兹别克斯坦国家统计委员会 10/29 发布：1–9 月卡车产量 4,447 辆、同比 +23.0%（上年同期 3,615 辆）。10/31 公布的 1–9 月进口数据中「汽车及其他运输工具」32.22 亿美元、同比 +26.4%，未拆卡车单量。政策面，乌兹别克斯坦 2026 年 7/12 第 PP-251 号总统令对进口的欧五及以上货运卡车、以及容积 76 立方米以上和 / 或总重 15 吨以上、车龄 5 年以内的半挂车给予零关税与零报废费，有效期至 2027 年底。另 10/29–10/30，乌兹别克斯坦总统与土耳其 Anadolu 集团在安卡拉就扩建改造 SamAuto（五十铃底盘卡车与客车）达成投资意向，未披露金额。哈萨克斯坦方面，哈萨克汽车商业协会（AKAB）的卡车细分月报需付费获取，本期未取得；哈萨克统计局口径 1–8 月卡车产量 4,500 辆、同比 −1.5%，挂车与半挂车 2,350 辆、同比 −0.3%。中国品牌在中亚的份额无公开可靠来源，本期不作估算。Uzbekistan's State Statistics Committee reported on Oct 29 that Jan–Sep truck output was 4,447 units, +23.0% YoY (3,615 a year earlier). Import data published on Oct 31 put 'automobiles and other transport equipment' at US$3.222bn for Jan–Sep, +26.4% YoY, with no truck unit split. On policy, Uzbekistan's Presidential Decree PP-251 of Jul 12, 2026 grants zero customs duty and a zero recycling fee on imported Euro-5-and-above cargo trucks and on semi-trailers of more than 76 cubic metres and/or above 15 tonnes GVW that are under five years old, running to the end of 2027. Separately, on Oct 29–30 Uzbekistan's president and Turkey's Anadolu Group agreed in Ankara on investment to modernise and expand SamAuto, which builds Isuzu-chassis trucks and buses, with no figures disclosed. In Kazakhstan, the Association of Kazakhstan Auto Business publishes its truck split only on a paid basis and it was not obtained this week; on the national statistics bureau's basis, Jan–Aug truck output was 4,500 units, −1.5% YoY, with trailers and semi-trailers at 2,350, −0.3% YoY. There is no reliable public source for Chinese brand share in Central Asia, and no estimate is made here.

土耳其：1–9 月牵引车 10,498 辆、同比 −13.5%，但重卡产量 +6.3%、出口 +18.6%；商业贷款利率降至 41.9%Turkey: Jan–Sep tractor units 10,498, −13.5% YoY, while heavy-truck output rose 6.3% and exports 18.6%; commercial lending fell to 41.9%²³

土耳其重型商用车协会（TAİD，16 吨以上会员口径）1–9 月重型商用车 23,326 辆、同比 −12.3%，其中卡车 12,828 辆、−11.4%，牵引车 10,498 辆、−13.5%；9 月单月重型商用车 2,916 辆、−10.9%，牵引车 1,365 辆、−15.2%。土耳其汽车工业协会（OSD）口径 1–9 月国内卡车市场 25,213 辆、同比 −9.5%，但重卡产量 22,541 辆、同比 +6.3%（9 月单月 3,030 辆、+12.4%），卡车出口 8,769 辆、同比 +18.6%（上年同期 7,392 辆），其中重卡 8,658 辆；产量集中在梅赛德斯-奔驰土耳其 15,696 辆（份额 69.6%）与福特奥托桑 6,845 辆（30.4%）。TAİD 与 OSD 会员范围不同，两套数字不可混用。宏观面，土耳其央行 10/22 降息 100 个基点至 36.00%，10/30 公布的会议纪要显示土耳其里拉商业贷款利率 41.9%、较上期降 680 个基点，9 月 CPI 同比 29.73%。海湾方面本期无可靠的月度商用车登记数据，按留白处理。On TAİD's basis, covering above-16t member brands, Turkey's Jan–Sep heavy commercial vehicles were 23,326 units, −12.3% YoY, of which trucks 12,828, −11.4%, and tractor units 10,498, −13.5%; September alone was 2,916 heavy commercial vehicles, −10.9%, with tractor units at 1,365, −15.2%. On OSD's basis, Turkey's Jan–Sep domestic truck market was 25,213 units, −9.5% YoY, yet heavy-truck production was 22,541, +6.3% YoY (September alone 3,030, +12.4%), and truck exports were 8,769, +18.6% YoY (7,392 a year earlier), of which 8,658 were heavy trucks; production concentrates in Mercedes-Benz Türk at 15,696 units, a 69.6% share, and Ford Otosan at 6,845, 30.4%. TAİD and OSD cover different member sets and the two series should not be mixed. On macro, Turkey's central bank cut 100bp to 36.00% on Oct 22, and the meeting summary published Oct 30 shows the Turkish lira commercial lending rate at 41.9%, down 680bp from the prior reading, with September CPI at 29.73% YoY. No reliable monthly commercial-vehicle registration data was available for the Gulf this week, which is left blank.

一汽解放首批 210 辆发运阿联酋：西亚大区零的突破，同期越南属地化、缅甸 1,500 辆备忘录落地FAW Jiefang shipped its first 210 trucks to the UAE: a first for its West Asia region, alongside Vietnam localisation and a 1,500-unit Myanmar memorandum²⁴

一汽解放 10/27–10/29 披露，阿联酋市场首批 210 辆解放卡车顺利发运，为该公司在阿联酋的首次批量交付，标志当地业务由渠道开发与产品准备进入批量交付阶段。公司已与当地头部汽车经销集团达成入网合作，组建销售、售后与备件团队；围绕当地运输场景与法规完成牵引、载货、自卸、搅拌等 10 余款车型适应性开发，产品覆盖重、中、轻型。本批 210 辆为重中轻混合车型，未披露重卡占比。公司称针对霍尔木兹海峡局势带来的物流不确定性协调了运力安排。此举属其「SPRINT 2030」国际化战略下的西亚布局。另据其三季报，公司前三季度海外推进包括越南属地化公司揭牌、缅甸签署 2027 年 1,500 辆战略备忘录、赞比亚批量交付。FAW Jiefang disclosed between Oct 27 and 29 that a first batch of 210 trucks had been shipped to the UAE, its first volume delivery there, marking a shift from channel development and product preparation into volume delivery. The company has signed up a leading local dealer group and built sales, aftersales and parts teams, and has completed adaptation work on more than ten models — tractor, cargo, tipper and mixer — for local duty cycles and regulations, spanning heavy, medium and light ranges. The 210 units are a mix of heavy, medium and light models, with no heavy-truck share disclosed. The company says it coordinated shipping capacity around logistics uncertainty from the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. The move sits within its SPRINT 2030 international strategy for West Asia. Its Q3 report separately lists Jan–Sep overseas progress including the opening of a Vietnamese localised company, a strategic memorandum in Myanmar for 1,500 units in 2027, and volume deliveries in Zambia.

中国重卡品牌在土耳其从出口转为本地建厂：SANY 安卡拉工厂一期 2,000 辆 / 年，SITRAK 落地 26 家经销商Chinese heavy-truck brands shift from exporting to Turkey to building there: SANY's Ankara plant starts at 2,000 units a year and SITRAK lands 26 dealers²⁵

据土耳其行业媒体 10/30 报道，两个中国重卡品牌今年已正式进入土耳其并着手本地化。SANY 9/9 在伊斯坦布尔与当地伙伴 FMT（Future Motion Trucks）合作发布，工厂位于安卡拉 ASO 第二工业园区、约 2.6 万平方米；一期投资 5,000 万美元、产能 2,000 辆 / 年，五年目标投资 5 亿美元、产能 3 万辆 / 年，2027 年底前推出 8 款车型，主打车型为 636 千瓦时纯电牵引车（土耳其本地测试续航约 500 公里），另有 6×4 与 8×4 自卸配置，定位为面向欧洲、中东与中亚的区域基地。中国重汽旗下 SITRAK 8/26 在安卡拉发布，经销商为 BEST İşletme ve Yedek Parça Ticaret A.Ş.，首款车型为 C7H 500 4×2 长途牵引车，年底前计划投放 6×4 与 8×4，已公布 26 家经销商。上述产能与投资额为企业公布的计划口径，尚无第三方产量数据验证。Turkish trade media reported on Oct 30 that two Chinese heavy-truck brands have formally entered Turkey this year and begun localising. SANY launched in Istanbul on Sep 9 with local partner FMT (Future Motion Trucks), with a plant of about 26,000 square metres in Ankara's ASO 2 industrial zone; phase one is US$50m for 2,000 units a year, against a five-year target of US$500m and 30,000 units a year, with eight models by end-2027. The lead product is a 636 kWh battery-electric tractor with about 500 km of range in Turkish testing, alongside 6x4 and 8x4 tipper configurations, positioned as a regional base serving Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia. Sinotruk's SITRAK launched in Ankara on Aug 26 with distributor BEST İşletme ve Yedek Parça Ticaret A.Ş., leading with the C7H 500 4x2 long-haul tractor, planning 6x4 and 8x4 models before year-end, and announcing 26 dealers. These capacity and investment figures are company plans and are not yet verified against third-party output data.